I have done my homework in all of my previous games this year... but this game, I just haven't really had the chance. I've had a busy week... I'm now in Mobile, AL, for Thanksgiving, and I'm headed back on Saturday only to watch the game on tape once I get back to Dallas, TX. So I really don't know who will win this weekend. I DO know that if we play another edition of "Bama Ball", we'll lose. Hawaii hasn't played anyone this year, but they still have an offense that can light up a scoreboard. They MIGHT run 5 running plays the whole game. The other 60 plays will be Timmy Change heaving the ball at our secondary, which has been pretty laid back as of late... and that's not a "good" laid back.

Hawaii runs the 'run-and-shoot' offense. They run, and Chang shoots it in there for more yards and more points. Bama's job will be to keep the Hawaii offense off the field. The only way to do that will be to have a SOLID running game with Shaud Williams and company. Since Hawaii has a quick strike offense, and Bama like to lull its viewers to sleep in the 1st half of games, look for more of the same this weekend. Bama's excited to be there, but look for a closer game at halftime this game that in previous games. I see Bama trailing at halftime, but a strong 2nd half JUST MIGHT do enough to get a final win for these Alabama seniors. Alabama is favored by 3 - somebody knows something - I wish I knew what they knew.

So anyway, the Bama defense will likely get shredded for most of the game and the ONLY way Bama stays in the game is if we have ANY similance of an offense and put points on the board. Croyle can't get sloppy. Tackling can't be sloppy on defense either. We need to make them earn every single yard they get. Punish them - but keep the personal fouls under wrap, guys.

Another comeback 2nd half is what we have in store for us again, but as usual, Bama will come up just a little short, and Hawaii will pull away at the end to put an exclamation point on last year's loss to Alabama. Bama will finish 4-9, and we'll be looking forward to a better year next year.... and possibly some more coaches. Sorry Tide - we just aren't finishing off opponents. Wins over mediocre teams is all we have and Hawaii is 7-4 and showing no signs of letting up on Saturday. Ouch. This one will be a long trip back to Alabama. Hope we packed a good movie for the airplane ride back... Good luck, and Roll Tide!
PREDICTION:      BAMA 17 Hawaii 27

Bamadog Note: It's uncanny how I've called the spread so close on each game this year. I only missed UT and NIU. That's messed up. Anyway, we had YET another chance to win a game and we couldn't put the other team away. One QB made the difference in this game, and it wasn't Brodie. Hawaii's backup QB really sliced and diced us up in the 1st half... then we couldn't finish the game as usual. 4-9. That's a fitting end to our lame 2003 season. Can we sweep this season under the rug???
ACTUAL SCORE:  BAMA 29 Hawaii 37

BAMA vs AUBURN PREDICTION

Throw out the record books, people. It's Iron Bowl time. 4-7 Alabama vs 6-5 Auburn. Lately, the visiting team has won, and who knows what will happen this year...

This is probably the hardest of all games this year to call. I've missed 2 picks this year in NIU (how did we lose that one?) and UT (more than ample chances to win that one!). For this game, I honestly think it's going to come down to the wire. I don't see a blowout on either side of the ball, though it COULD happen. The problem is that Alabama is hobbling into the game, and AU is just reeling. It's kinda funny though - Auburn lost to an Ole Miss team that it should have beaten. I mean, really - did you see that 3rd down play at the end of the game for Auburn - Campbell hit the guy right in the chest and he dropped the game-winning catch. Wow! That's Jordan-Hare luck for ya, huh?

So now it comes down to the Iron Bowl. For Bama, it's the last game of the regular season... forget Hawaii - THIS is it. Hawaii is just the consolation prize/trip for the team, win or lose... though we still don't want to lose to Hawaii. For Auburn, it's a game they need to win to get serious consideration for a bowl game. At 6-6, I believe they would be enjoying the bowl season from home, so there's a lot in it for them. So what better reason for Alabama to play an all-out smash-it-in-your-face football game? That's exactly what I expect to see Saturday. Forget the LSU game - this is Auburn. LSU just has some kind of dynasty team this year, even IF they DID play a cupcake schedule out of conference. Auburn is not LSU. Auburn has a knack for choking in the big games... oh, but wait - so have we this year. Uh oh. Just something else I have to throw in the mix.

Fact is, is that Auburn has 3 really good RB's, but to me, the best is probably Ronnie Brown. Forget the Cadillac. He's been on blocks the last 2 years we have played them. What has he actually done against Bama? Nothing. That cadillac might as well be a VW for all I care. Ronnie Brown is the guy I'm worried about. And what about Tre Smith from last year? Is that guy even still on the team? If so, I'd even worry about that white boy before I worry about a VW. Puulease, people.

Basically, Bama is going to try and make Campbell win the game for them Saturday. Auburn will get over 100 yards of rushing on us - that's almost a given. We're just too thin right now to stay with any offense - plus the way our offense is going 3-and-out these days, well, any defense would get tired. So it WILL be tough to beat them this year. Britt is out; Cavan is out; Alexander might play 1/2 of the offensive snaps this week; and Johnson is still iffy. Cavan is a huge loss - probably one of the reasons we sucked so bad against LSU. He's a really great blocking TE. We need that kind of play against Auburn.

Also, our special teams have to be ON THE MONEY this week. Unfortunately, our FG unit is still intact, so look for more problems this week. Or will we? Stay tuned....

So basically, it comes down to this..... WHO WANTS IT MORE? That's it. Whoever wins, will want to win more than the other team. There's NO excuse as to why Bama can't win the 2003 Iron Bowl. None. Every week, I say we need to reach down deep and we haven't. This week, if you don't reach down deep, you're going to hear 364 days of how you didn't play your absolute best against Auburn. DON'T LET THAT HAPPEN. Period. Put it ALL on the line. Don't piss this season away just yet. Let's go out and get Shula win #5 and #6. It'll be a great building block for next year's team.

One other thing we should REALLY look out for is the fake FG or fake punt. Tuberville has a real knack for pulling crap like that out of his hat, so we need to be ready for it. If they are lining up for a 40-yd FG early in the game - PREPARE YOURSELF FOR A FAKE, cuz odds are, he's going to play that card when we least expect it.

So looking on to the actual prediction of this game, I see it being a low-scoring affair. Bama only put up 20 points on UT until OT hit... then put up 38 on Miss. St. (or should I call them Vandy?), then put up a whopping 3 points against LSU. Bama has the 2nd worst TD percentage per drive in the SEC. Only MSU is worst. Ouch. We just don't complete drives over the goal line a lot this season. I have a solution to that problem though - if we treat each possession as though it were overtime, we might succeed. Look at all of the OT periods we played this year against Arkansas and UT. We scored a heckuva lot of points in the OT periods. Maybe we can have that sense of urgency in the whole game in the Iron Bowl. Ya think? That might be a good strategy. Anyway....

So on defense, Alabama will dominate, but ONLY if Alabama's offense can do more than 3-and-out each time. We cannot afford to have our defense on the field like we did last week. We don't have enough backups to keep fresh legs on the field. It's up to the Bama offense to get the job done to give the defense something to defend for once. We're playing from behind in almost every game. Not what this vanilla offense needs to do. As for the offense, let's be less predictable... be more creative with HOW we get our players the football. It's very "NFL"-like. There's an obvious reason for that, but hey - you still need to mix it up and run misdirection plays, etc. Make the guys on defense have to say "who's got the football". Make that happen, and you've already won 1/2 the battle since you've faked everyone out. Next, we just need our guys to get on the line and D-O-M-I-N-A-T-E. There's no other word to put here - just dominate the OL and DL of Auburn and we'll pull out the win. We don't have Freddie Kitchens to pull out last-minute heroics, so we HAVE to jump on Auburn early and often or it will be just another 'lights-out Bama' game.

So by halftime....... heck, I don't know. Should I flip a freakin' coin? Naa. Bama has proven to me that we can't start out fast, so as usual, we'll be playing catch-up .... that is, IF we go by the recordbooks. But I said throw those out...... ok. Bama's up at halftime (ha ha), but as usual, no Auburn team will EVER quit until the final gun sounds. It will be a rabid finish to one of the closest Iron Bowls played... at least since 1997 when Bruce Arians called the infamous 3rd down pass play. (ugh) It could honestly go either way, but even though the home field has treated Auburn poorly in recent games/years, I think Auburn will win in the waning moments of the game by a FG or less. It's going to come down to the wire. If they don't win in regulation, and it goes into OT, look for Bama to pull out the squeeker. We've been there, done that, and we won't lose another OT game. It's the regulation part I'm worried about. Dang it, Tide!! Let's win this weekend. I'm tired of being right every time we lose. Time to roast some war-chicken butt! ROLL TIDE!!
PREDICTION:      BAMA 20 AUBURN 23

Bamadog Note: Again, an almost absolutely correct prediction (unfortunately). What is up, Tide??? Another slow start doomed us once again. Great effort in 2nd half, but we clearly have a TON of work to do in the off-season - priority one... tackling Priority two... how to move the ball on offense the entire game. What a mess. Enjoy the Hawaiian Islands cuz you're in for a hurtin' come spring, at least if it were me...
ACTUAL SCORE:  BAMA 23 AUBURN 28

BAMA vs #3 LSU PREDICTION

This week poses a real problem - who will really win this weekend? All stats point to LSU, but all signs point to Alabama. Check this - Alabama has played LSU 4 times when the Tigers were ranked in the top 10 - and Bama won all 4. Last year, Bama was facing LSU in Baton Rouge, and LSU had the #1 ranked defense in the country - Bama slashed them up for 300 yards on the ground and won 31-0. 31 points on the "best" defense in the country. This year, LSU is ranked #4 on defense, but their scoring defense is ranked #1 only allowing 9.6 ppg. Pretty impressive. But let's take a look at who they have played... UL Monroe (Division 2), Arizona (plays like D2 this year), Western Illinois (who???), UGA (got a week's rest prior), Miss. St.(puulease), South Carolina (again, pulease), Auburn (who knows which team will show up?), La Tech (not Tim Ratay's La Tech of years past), and Florida who they lost to (somehow). So overall, they have played UGA and (grunt) Auburn as their top 2 teams, and UF beat them. No wonder they lead the country in defense. Who have they played? Let's beef up the schedule a bit, people!

So now, I ask - where is the game played? Uh oh. Away team usually wins this one as of late, but Bama owns the series 43-18-5, so odds tell you, Bama should win. This year, LSU has only lost one game. Bama made a 'Maukery' of Matt Mauck last year and shut them down. This year, we'll need that same running game we had last year if we expect to pull out the win over the #3 team in the country. How are these guys #3??? Puulease.

There is a first for this game though - this is the first night game LSU has played in Tuscaloosa. We can't look at history regarding that fact, but Alabama IS 0-3-1 against LSU at night in the STATE of Alabama. Can the stars PLEASE align correctly so we'll know how this game will turn out??? This is quite frustrating. Once I think Alabama's going to win, then LSU, then Bama, then LSU - you get the idea. LSU is favored to win by 6.5, but that's only a TD. Last year, we won by over 4 TD's. Who woulda thunk that?

Also, throw in the mix that Ray Hudson may not play this weekend, and that could also affect the outcome of the game. Either Shaud will play more and get more tired, or Darby (sore ribs) will have to help out. Castille could even get more carries, but then who would be the fullback? McLain? Ok - but then who replaces him at starting TE since he and Donald Clark are our only 2 TE's available at this point (Cavan got hurt last week and is out for the season). Talk about some shifting going on - the coaching staff really has their work cut out for them this weekend. Hudson is the key. If he plays, everyone else stays where they are - if not, well, you know the story. If another lineman goes down on the OL, we are really going to hurt so our guys really need to be careful out there Saturday. Otherwise, Brandon Brooks might get some snaps at RB since Castille will have to moved to Right tackle (just kidding).

So back to the game.... Bama has had some decent practices this week and are trying to give Shula a 4-0 finish to the season. LSU on the other hand, is 4-3 after bye weeks with Saban, and Saban said they have had the best practice they've ever had this past week - does this bode well for Alabama? We'll see come kickoff. Personally, I think LSU is still better than we think. They usually find a way to choke, but this year, bad competition or not, they are #3 and have only lost 1 game. They beat Georgia and Auburn, and lost to Florida. They still have to play Ole Miss, which will likely determine the SEC West Champion since Ole Miss is undefeated in SEC play. They have a lot to play for - more than Alabama at this point. For Alabama, it's about PRIDE. How they stack up to LSU is really anyone's guess. You know the old saying - "Any given Saturday..." Last year, they should have pulverized us. Instead, they took the beating 31-0. This year, same scenario, but in T-town, where the Tide hasn't been able to close out games strong all season. We have only won against UK and USM this year at home. Not good. If ESPN's College Gameday were here this weekend, it would mark almost certain death for the Tide. Instead, the Tigers of LSU beat Alabama, but not as bad as Corso would think.

The start of the game will be intense - see Bama/OU game. It will be electric. This is the last home game of the season and for these Bama seniors that have had to endure so much. I just don't know if THAT in itself will be enough to get things going. LSU allows just 60 ypg on the ground - so if Shaud isn't getting yards, Brodie will have to. Now, if we can somehow exploit the LSU secondary, we have a chance - if not, it's lights out Alabama in the 3rd quarter. Look for LSU to score quickly and often and for Bama to play catchup for most of the game. We all know that Mauck and Clayton are going to hook up numerous times - we HAVE to stop that guy or our secondary is going to get pummelled. Bostick (I'll go ahead and make such a BOLD prediction) will miss either a PAT or FG or both. We'll lose momentum due to this and LSU will strike back quickly while we're down. I wish I could see a light at the end of the tunnel, but this year, the away team should have another win in their pocket unless we pull out a "magic" playbook. Here's to you, Alabama, Shula, and all you Alabama fans at the game Saturday - ROLL TIDE! Hope I'm wrong this week, but on paper they look good. Bama needs to bring everything and the kitchen sink and nail them on the head a few times.....
PREDICTION:      BAMA 13 LSU 34

Bamadog Note: I was close by the score difference, once again. No offense, no defense, no special teams. The question last wee against MSU was "Is Bama that good, or is MSU that bad"... I think, the answer is obvious. A high school team would have had a good chance at beating the Tide tonight. Something's gotta give next week. This was the worst game of the season for Alabama. Period.
ACTUAL SCORE:  BAMA 3 LSU 27

BAMA vs MISSISSIPPI STATE PREDICTION

Odds-makers have Bama ahead by 11. Will that happen this week? I think it might, but I wouldn't bet the house on it. Bama is coming off the "off week" and Brodie has had a chance to get better, have the shoulder heal a little more, and a little time for the players to think about how they want to finish the season. It's hard to say what will happen in this game as Bama isn't really much better than MSU this year. We're 3-6 and MSU is 2-6. Of course, we have played a much harder schedule than the Bulldogs. I'd have to say with the week off, Bama will win... at least by a TD. I don't think it will be too close, except in the beginning when it's 7-0 Bama.

Sherrill will have his team ready as usual, but for some reason, MSU will be MSU. They will find a way to lose - or should that be us? Naw - this week, it's the battle of the bottom of the SEC West. How this game made it to TV is beyond me, but it did. I believe that Croyle will throw quite a bit with Williams getting a good number of carries as well. Look for Williams to get well over 100 yards on the day, and hopefully, Croyle won't have to win the game with his arm. W. Britt is out for the season, and Herrion will likely replace him in the starting lineup. What a gruesome site on TV seeing his leg break. Ouch!

So Bama runs and runs and runs.... MSU tries to run and will score - just not that much. Win one for the 'Jackie' won't work this week as the Tide puts a hurtin' on the Bulldogs and finally gets win number 4. Sheesh. Win #4. How lame. Shula has to get 4 - he can NOT be out-done by Mike DuBose. Please - if Coach Bryant is watching - GIVE US THE POWER!!!!! Give Shula at least 4 wins so he can't be worse than DuBose..... I beg of you, Coach Bryant.

Anyway, look for a good game, and not really much to talk about during the game. It could be a real yawner as Bama knows they can beat Miss St., but fart around most of the game until they have to win. Or something. You know how we play. It'll 5-2 in the first quarter. ha ha
PREDICTION:      BAMA 24 MISSISSIPPI STATE 16

Bamadog Note: I figured we'd win, but not by over 5 TD's. MSU is really that bad obviously. I guess if you total up both sides in my prediction, that equals 40 - so I was close this week, in a way, right? Good job, Bama! ROLL TIDE! Next up, a real test in LSU...
ACTUAL SCORE:  BAMA 38 MISSISSIPPI STATE 0

BAMA vs TENNESSEE PREDICTION

Well, this is BIG GAME WEEKEND for Alabama. The biggest SEC game of the season is upon us and this week, Bama actually has a chance to win, unlike last week. UT is ranked #22, but has lost their last 2 games, then an off week. UT has had some time to heal some players and prepare an extra week for the Crimson Tide. This game could go down to the last drive of the game - it could be THAT close. Both teams are in serious need of a win, and UT probably has more to play for since another loss would definitely drop them out of the SEC East race. Bama on the other hand, has a lot to prove, but it won't mean anything except to the program since we cannot win the SEC West this year. Heck, even if we could, we wouldn't. Bama is reeling right now pretty bad...almost as bad as Dumbose's first year - remember that 4-7 year? It will be tough to get 6 wins this year with the rest of our schedule. Let's take a look at the game....

The Bama offense vs the UT defense will be almost a stand off this weekend. Brodie will obviously get the start this weekend with Avalos playing 2nd string/injury QB. Brodie could very easily get knocked out of the game, even with the 2 braces he's wearing. Don't think that UT won't know that - they are going to come at Croyle hard and often. A couple of bad hits, and Brodie could very well be on the sideline again this weekend. So look for Bama to really try to establish the running game against UT. If Bama can do that, Brodie will stay in longer and if it's working, then we're probably scoring. Last year's everything man against UT was Santonio Beard. Good thing he went into the NFL...er, I mean, the Canadian league. Isn't he in Vancouver or something? Anyway....

Shaud and Ray are going to have a really good day for Bama to have a good showing. If Bama's running game doesn't get going, UT will win big. But there's a ray of hope in them thar green pastures of Bryant-Denny -- UT is allowing a LOT of rushing yards this year, so look for the OL of Bama to really open up some holes to get the ground game running hard. If that works, Brodie and play-action is going to be gold. Look for Bama to score, but not early. The first drives for both teams will be short-lived. The start of the scoring won't happen until close to the end of the 1st quarter probably as the adrenaline is running high.

Now the UT offense vs the Bama defense will be the tricky part. Bama started out the year ranking in the top 5 in rushing D and now they have slipped bigtime. Injuries have really posed a depth problem for the Tide and since Pope has left the lineup, the Tide has slipped a bit. This week, Pope is said to probably be back. He will be the key to stopping UT this weekend if he's 100%. If he can't go, then Garth will get the start once again, and UT will probably run more. Pope is THAT much of a force on defense if he's 100% and ready to go. Bama's secondary seems to always get burned, but if you remember last year, it was Bama's secondary that kept UT in check. Charlie Peprah's 4th quarter interception for an almost TD (Bama would run it in the next play from the 1-foot line) put an exclamation point on last year's game as the Tide whipped Tennessee 34-14. It wasn't really close the whole game. Bama's D was relentless. This year, Bama is going to have to dig deep - REAL DEEP. One more injury on the LB front could really do the Tide in this week - and force us to play more nickel/dime defense, which really wouldn't help our running defense. Clausen is still Clausen and he can put up the big numbers on any given day. He has his really good days and his really bad days. He can get rattled pretty easily, so if we can get to him and sack him a couple of times and hit him on a lot of plays, that will open up Bama's secondary for a pick or two.

Special teams will be huge as field position and FG's will play a huge part in this game. Hopefully, Freelend can keep on booming punts like he's been doing the last couple of games. Still, my biggest fear with Freelend is that he REALLY takes his time punting the football. Too many times, the other team should probably get a block because of how long it takes him to punt the ball. You should only have to take 1-2 steps to punt - he usually takes 3, which is one step too many for a punt.... plus he goes slow even with that. He just scares the crap outta me, and I have a hunch that he'll get one blocked on Saturday.

The FG unit will miss something. They have missed something in every game but one I believe - either a PAT or a chip-shot FG. Flip a coin and we'll see what happens in that area. Also, this week, I believe Coach Unger is playing with the return unit on kickoffs. We're not doing too well returning kickoffs, so look for a new returner this week - possibly Tyrone Prothro (#4). He showed some flash last week against Ole Miss and he's got some good speed. Only problem is that he's a freshman, so the probability of a fumble obviously increases (see Ramzee Robinson).

At the coaching slot, the advantage definitely goes to UT. They have been around a looong time and have a pretty cohesive unit. It's just going to come down to Bama's D vs UT's O. I think Bama will be able to score on UT, but if we trade touchdown for touchdown, it's a game Bama will likely lose. We probably won't score more than 24 points, so we HAVE to hold Tennessee to 3 TD's or less. Can we do that? I think we can, and unlike last week, this week, Bama finds a way to win and beat UT at home for the first time in a while. The players are really taking this week seriously as they had a players-only meeting Sunday before practice (how can EVERY week NOT be serious???) This week, they are more focused for some reason, and I think they will do everything they can, to come out with a win Saturday and bring the Tide up to 4-5 on the year... 2 wins shy of getting Shula that $50K bonus for winning 6 games in his first season.

I predict another slow start.... maybe a FG early, but nothing in the end zone. We'll score a TD in the 2nd an UT will match it, but they will look a lot more at ease doing so as Bama's D tires a little Clausen keeping drives alive and converting 3rd downs. The 2nd half will be intense. Either Bama will be looking to dig themselves out of a hole or hanging on by a thread only to pull it out at the end of the game with a rare interception by Bama's secondary. It's going to be close for this rivalry game. BTW, CBS picked this game over LSU/Auburn? It has to be the story behind the story, because this game doesn't have much luster this year. We're both hurting and Auburn/LSU is more likely to show who's REALLY in the leader's seat in the West.

So Special Teams play will be huge - UT will get to Croyle early, and might knock him out. If so, the running game will get stuffed and Avalos will have to win the game with his arm. That won't happen at this point in his career - so Brodie HAS to stay healthy or UT will come out of Bryant-Denny with a win. Bama's D will do the job... will slack up in the 2nd quarter, but come out and play lights out in the 3rd... seal the deal in the 4th, and get Bama a much needed win. This game is a toss-up honestly as UT is favored to win by 3.5 this week.

Before I make my prediction, I played a guy last night on my PS2 (online) - EA Sports NCAA Football 2004 - and he was UT and I was Alabama. I really almost gave up early in the game, but I was like - no way am I giving up against UT. I changed up my defense and got after that other guy. UT was up on me 24-0 in the 1st quarter (and quarters are only 5:00 each in this game online). I finally put the ball in the endzone in the 1st of the 2nd quarter to make it 24-6 (I botched the 2-pt conversion). He then scored and it was 31-6. Can you believe that crap? 31-6!! Really sounds like Bama this year, eh?

Well, the Tide (and I) would NOT give up like that. Bama and Charlie Peprah and company would put on a 2nd quarter exhibition on defense... and Croyle and Shaud would put up an exhibition on offense unlike anything you've ever seen. Alabama would stop UT 4-5 times in a row with interceptions to score a whopping 32 points in the 2nd quarter (remember - quarters are only 5 minutes each). Bama went with the no-huddle all of the 2nd quarter. Bama would lead at halftime 32-31 after missing three 2-pt conversions. Who knew I'd really come back by halftime?? He was killing me 31-6 in the 2nd quarter. So the 3rd quarter starts, and Ray and Shaud are having a whale of a day. Scoring would lessen the 2nd half as I slowed down the pace of the game. In the 3rd, UT would score and go up by 6. Croyle would then hit Shaud in the back corner of the end zone to put us up 39-38. The 4th quarter comes around and UT scores with less than 2 minutes left in the game. 45-39 Tennessee. Croyle gathers his wits about him and drives up the field with the no-huddle once again and hits Fulgham on a quick 'out' route from the 5-yd line. Only about 30 seconds left in the game and Bama's on top 46-45. Bama kicks off and UT gets to the 25 (UT has no timeouts at this point). They get a quick 1st down, then the next 4 pass plays by UT all fall incomplete with the last one being knocked down by Charlie Peprah with 1 second left in the game. Bama kneels and wins a HUGE game 46-45 after being down by 25 points in the 2nd quarter and leading by halftime. It was totally insane, but I had to share it with you guys. Croyle would end the game 32 of 49 passing for 4 TDs and 399 yards. Bama would rush for a total of 25 yards in the comeback. Shaud had 14 catches for 166 yards and a TD, Hudson 9-81, Fletcher 4-62 2-TD, Fulgham 2-18 1-TD, Luke 2-41, & A.C. Carter 1-31. Interceptions by Peprah, Carlos Andrews, Freddie Roach, and Charles Jones. What a game - look for tomorrow's game to be that close if not closer if Croyle is able to finish.
PREDICTION:      BAMA 23 TENNESSEE 21

Bamadog Note: If not for the overtime periods, my prediction would have been pretty much right on with a Bama win at 23-20. Too many plays where Bama could have put them away, but didn't. Good game, but Bama came out on the wrong end of the stick. CBS had to be happy about this game...
ACTUAL SCORE:  BAMA 43 TENNESSEE 51 (5-OT)

BAMA vs OLE MISS PREDICTION

Dang - what a crazy game! Just got done watching Game 7 of the ALCS MLB and Aaron Boone absolutely cranked one over the left field wall to win it in the bottom of the 11th inning. IN-FREAKIN-CREDIBLE! What an awesome game and an incredible comeback from behind win for the Yankees. Wow.

Aight... so now as it approaches midnight, I guess it's time to make a bold prediction for this weekend's game for Bama vs Ole Miss. This week is about as hard to pick as a wild tiger's nose. How do you do it?

From what I can tell, it could be Avalos or Croyle this week, but my instinct tells me it's going to be Croyle at some point in the game if he doesn't start. Avalos might get the start, but only to see if he can move the team both in the air and on the ground. If Bama can run, and run well, Avalos might stay in the game as long as the Tide is in control. But if Ole Miss gets an early lead, and Croyle can go, look for Shula to go with Croyle early if he doesn't start.

He'll be wearing 2 braces on his shoulder, and only he knows how this will limit his throwing ability though his hurt shoulder is not his throwing arm. Predicting the score on the Bama side will be quite difficult... but if we see a lot of 3-and-outs, the Bama defense is going to be playing like they did at Georgia the first half - remember that? We can't afford for our defense to be on the field a lot Saturday. Our depth is very limited and the less time our D is on the field, the better. So our best defense for the day will be our offense. Execute long sustained drives that eat up the clock and end with points. The longer Eli Manning is on the field, the more our defense will suffer.

Manning and Ole Miss are the #2 offense in the country. Yeah, you heard it right. #1 in the SEC though they have not played any REAL competition thus far, as far as defense is concerned. Bama will be the toughest defense they will have played this year. They have wins over Vanderbilt and Florida. But remember - Florida is on their way down. Their D isn't the same as it used to be. Also, OM's offense is averaging 170 ypg on the ground as well... it will be VERY tough to defend against this offense. The one guy Bama will HAVE to keep their pads on is Chris Collins, Ole Miss's most dangerous WR. We hold him in check, and we might be ok. But don't count on it. Eli has only been sacked 8 times in 5 games. Not bad at all. We'll need to get to him 5 times in the game just to be effective and slow them down. I don't know if we'll have the gas in the 2nd half to make that happen.

Then you have the rest of the game: Bama's offense and Special Teams from both teams. Bama has the advantage (how, I don't know) in special teams as they have found some good play on punt returns and punt blocks. My main concern will be Bama kicking FG's and PAT's. Other than that, things are progressing nicely for the Tide on special teams. Bo Freelend is getting better and improving his mechanics as seen in last week's game against Southern Miss. He was booming some serious punts last week, and nailed quite a few behind the 20.

Ole Miss's special teams are about average, but that doesn't mean we can slack off. We still need to watch out for the fake punt as we've been burned 3 times this year on fakes, and at the most un-opportuned times. Watch the fakes this week, Tide.

Bama's offense is the last area of mystery. Everything depends on how Croyle is feeling and how he plays after being on the sidelines the last 2 games, and coming on after a long layoff due to injury. Practices have been going ok, but he is trying to wipe off the rust, so things in the game could still be shakey should Croyle play. Look for Bama to start off doing much of the same of what we did last weekend - establish the run with Shaud Williams and work in the play-action passes. Running the ball almost every play this week won't cut it, especially if Manning gets the Rebs an early lead or a big lead.

It will be interesting to see what the Tide pulls out of their hat this weekend. We didn't use much of the offensive gameplan last week - maybe he had some option ready for Avalos to play, but didn't want to do that yet so we could save it for Ole Miss. Who knows. Whatever the case, we're going to have to be crafty to beat Ole Miss this year. They won't be a pushover and THEY will expect a win this year in Oxford. Bama is 4-1 in Oxford, but this year, Ole Miss might have the upper hand, especially with a healthy team and a complete allotment of scholarships.

So should Croyle get the start, I still don't see Bama scoring on the first drive unless the running game gets it seriously going well. The way our OL is playing, that could happen. Should Brodie start and take a game-ending hit, well, I don't know what to say. Obviously, Avalos will get to use the rest of the gameplan that he didn't use one week prior to Saturday.

To be safe, I'll say Bama will score a couple of times Saturday - how, I don't know. Shaud will have to be one way. We have to get a passing game going or it will be a long day for Bama. Eli will hit Collins for over 100 yards on the day and a TD or 2. Bama will have a hard time covering Collins. Yeah, he's that good. It doesn't look good for Bama as depth and prolonged drives by Ole Miss wear us out. We'll be thinking 'pass' and Ole Miss will run... we'll be thinking 'run' and Ole Miss will pass. It's going to be a long day as Ole Miss gets around it's offensive average of over 400 yards in the game. It won't be pretty for the Tide unless the D really digs down deep again this week.

I want this game to be close - if it is, Bama has a chance. If it's not close, it's Ole Miss with a blowout over Bama. We just don't have the firepower at this point in the season and our general is hurt. It's going to be hard to come out of Oxford with a win, but if we concentrate and play with Ole Miss like we can, we can pull it out. Do I think we can - yes. Will we? Probably not this weekend. We're just too wounded and are short on backups.
PREDICTION:      BAMA 17 OLE MISS 34

Bamadog Note: Unfortunately, another pretty accurate prediction. Bama just digs too big a hole at the beginning of games and can never climb out. We have to have better starts to games if we expect to win from here on out. Just a miserable start, poor defense, & we didn't protect the football.
ACTUAL SCORE:  BAMA 28 OLE MISS 43

BAMA vs SOUTHERN MISS PREDICTION

Well, I don't really know what to do this week. How do you make such a bold prediction. Can the game end in a 0-0 tie? This could possibly be a baseball score game - say 7-3 or something. Maybe even 2-0. Will the offense even score? Is Shula installing the wishbone behind closed doors like Bear did against USC? Who knows. Bottom line is that Shula will have to heavily rely on the running game this weekend for homecoming. Avalos will likely be the starter and finisher in this game, barring injury. I doubt we'll see Croyle in this game as we hold him and hope he's a lot more "well" for Ole Miss next week.

Based on what I've seen, Avalos will not throw the ball more than 20 times Saturday. Of course, he only got about 5 reps prior to last week's Georgia game.... so this week, at least he'll have gotten some practice. But that's what we said about Pennington too, and he didn't hardly come up with any offense either. Fact is, is that this offense isn't going to put up a lot of points unless Brodie is at the helm. We're going to need a lot of misdirection and for Pete's sake, throw in a little option play here and there. With Shaud in the backfield, that would probably help us out - heck we ran it a lot the last 2 years under Fran.

USM also will start a freshman at QB as their normal starter is hurt as well. It will be a low-scoring game, that's for sure. But then again, IF Brodie DOES play, then things could be different, but it's possible he could get knocked out once again. No wonder there's no line on the game... It's impossible to figure out what's going to happen. Everything is going to depend on whether or not the offensive line can keep the offense on the field or not. Last week, it was 3-and-out too many times. Will the ground game get going? At times yes, and at times no. What Shula is doing in practice is really a mystery. With Avalos' speed and "tripping over his own feet" syndrome, it's hard to tell what will happen. I'll call for a Tide win though I have no idea how it will happen. Since it's a home game, and Brett Favre isn't QB anymore, I guess we have a chance, right? Good luck guys!
PREDICTION:      BAMA 13 SOUTHERN MISS 7

Bamadog Note: I'm pretty good at this, huh? ha ha Another correct prediction, low-scoring, grunt-it-out win. Next week won't be as easy as Bama visits Ole Miss. Let's savor this one as Shula (and the Bama Nation) needed this one. Roll Tide.
ACTUAL SCORE:  BAMA 17 SOUTHERN MISS 3

BAMA vs #11 GEORGIA PREDICTION

Gametime is almost upon us this week, and our Bama team is travelling to Athens, GA to play the #11 Bulldogs. It will be a tough game this week as Georgia is the reigning SEC Champion. Bama enters the game having lost their 2 last games against NIU and Arkansas.

Now, the Tide must put up or shut up. Now is the time to make something good happen. Get a win against a nationally ranked team, and on the road. Going up against David Greene and David Pollack will be a tough one though - let's take a look at what to expect...

Bama will show up with a lot of confidence. After all, it's a revenge game from last year. Remember that? We had them beaten, until, well, they came back at the end and kick a field goal in the waning seconds of the game. Peprah had an interception for a TD in that game which sent the Tide fans into a frenzy - sort of like last week when Shaud Williams ran up the middle for 80 yards to be up by 21. Notice on both of those games, Bama seemed to gain a ton of momentum, but couldn't close the game with a win? That's been the biggest problem with this year's team, and Saturday, we could see more of the same if we don't play all 4 quarters.

David Greene is one of the nation's best QB's and he is going to get his yards - we just have to limit him to the number of times he throws the ball into the endzone. Musa Smith is gone (thank goodness), so Michael Cooper is picking up the slack with about 73 ypg and 3 TD's. Not too shabby, but Bama should be able to shut down the running game Saturday - that means the defense will have to play some extroidinary pass defense against one of the best offenses in the country, THOUGH they HAVE started out slow this year. But this weekend, Fred Gibson is back this week, so that will be one more weapon Greene has to shoot at. The Bama pass rush will have to be on top if its game and get to Greene, or he will burn us left, right, and long. UGA's WR's are not pushovers - THEY ARE GOOD. And mark it down - they will burn us for a long TD - Mark Richt always seems to go for the long ball (like Shula) a few times in a game, and more times than not, they get the completion. Let's just hope we don't have the meltdown we had last week.

Shaud Williams really needs to have a big day, because Pennington is likely to start, and we don't need the outcome of the game resting on an inexperienced QB. Last week, Pennington got the job done in his one drive - with a little help from Arkansas and a late hit... but this week Pennington is probably slated as the starter. He's gotten most of the reps, and I believe will be ready. He knows the offense - he just hasn't played a lot of "real" football time. So Bama's running game needs to be strong, and the OL has to do a better job tomorrow than any other game. Pollack must be contained. Period. If we don't block well against this All-American, Bama will become one-dimensional - and we all know what is likely to happen if we do that. WR's have had a good week for Bama and need to keep up the good work - only do even better. Let's have NO dropped passes this week. Also, I'd like to note that Brandon Greer is really coming along for us this year. He's always making plays in "must have" situations.

On defense, our main goal should be to make Greene throw early than what he wants.... or get a sack. The running game is going to work for Georgia, but the passing game is what will define UGA Saturday. Shovel draws will likely burn the Tide, just as it has done almost every time in the past. We have to be ready for the shovel pass. Richt is pretty ingenius with his offense, so in the first drive, look for some trickery to catch the Tide off-guard. If not the first drive, then definitely the 2nd drive, if things are clicking for the Dawgs. Ryans and Roach need to have a good day as well. Pope may not play, so the defensive front will have to give everything they have to stop the Bulldogs. Overall on Defense, I see us wearing down in the 3rd quarter, mainly because of the depth problem. Players are nursing injuries, and it just plain and simple effects the overall chemistry of the team. Hopefully, Pope will be able to play Saturday.

So let's get to the prediction part... UGA's defense is one of the tops in the country in scoring defenese (8.5 ppg allowed). Scoring on UGA is going to be TOUGH. Bama has had a hard time putting the ball in the end zone except for the Arkansas game. Maybe things have turned around a bit. Bama's bound to have a good breakout game that we win on offense. The biggest question though, will be who plays at QB for Alabama. Can Pennington get the job done, should he start? And if Brodie starts, how effective will he be against a very stout defense in Georgia? What if Brodie can't go, Pennnington starts and gets hurt... oh no. Let's not go down that road. Brandon Avalos would get his first playing time in college as a redshirt freshman, and well, it wouldn't look pretty at this point. So that's the biggest question for Bama - Brodie or Pennington. Both can get the job done, though Brodie is more likely to make the big plays. Bama will hit the end zone once or twice in the game. I honestly don't think it will be more than that. One field goal is a possibility. Things don't look good for Bama this week as (1) we play on the road for the first time [this can affect freshman bigtime if behind] and (2) UGA's scoring defense is relentless and (3) UGA doesn't have a depth problem like Bama has. Bama can win the game if running on all cylinders, but that gas tank is going to run out towards the end of the game and Georgia's going to come away with a big win. Last time Georgia was shut out - 1995, by Alabama 31-0. This year, it could be the complete opposite, 0-31 Georgia, if we don't play like we're capable.

Give 'em all ya got Bama... don't give up - don't EVER give up. Play ALL 4 quarters and we'll have a chance.
PREDICTION:      BAMA 16 GEORGIA 27

Bamadog Note: Given the fact that Bama had to go 3-deep at the QB position, we didn't do too badly, and had a nice 2nd half, but still came up short. Turnovers didn't help the Tide as 7 points came off a blocked punt and Bostic missed his 3rd PAT of the season. Score could have been much worse as UGA was scoreless in the 2nd half.
ACTUAL SCORE:  BAMA 23 GEORGIA 37

BAMA vs #9 ARKANSAS PREDICTION

Well, I honestly don't know where to begin with this prediction. It's been a crazy year so far for Bama. We're up one minute and down the next. Then we're up, then down. But lately, it seems like the roller coaster is more on the down side. The only thing we're consistent about is being inconsistent, and that's not good - not good for Bama OR my predictions each week. No wonder the odds makers only have the Hogs favored by 1 point. That's the PAT we'll be missing Saturday, right?

So let's get with it, shall we? Bama enters this game at 2-2 with wins over USF and UK. Bama lost to OU and <grunt> NI-freakin'-U. The hogs are 3-0 having won a huge game against #5 Texas 2 weeks ago. I saw that game in its entirety, and I have to say, I am totally impressed with Arkansas this year. Last year, they started out the season VERY slow and everyone thought they'd have a losing year. They ended up winning the SEC West (no thanks to Bama defaulting due to probation). Matt Jones scares the living crap out of me with his 4 years of experience, 8-foot tall body, and 4.0 speed. Ok, I'm exaggerating a little bit, but it's just that - he is VERY good. As soon as Arkansas starts running the option with Jones and Cobb, Bama could be in for a long day. Of course, last year, I think Bama just stymied the Hogs mainly because of that first play Bama ran from scrimmage - an 80-yard smoke draw play that saw Shaud Williams in the end zone about 10 seconds later. Arkansas would never recover from that quick strike.

This year, it's a completely different Hogs team. They will run, run, and run a ton more. They will run over whoever is in their way - and that includes Bama's thin defensive front. The starting 4 will only be able to do so much... but then the running running running is going to have its toll on the DL in this game. The 4th quarter might not even matter and the Hogs might have the game put away before the 4th quarter starts. I'm being realistic here. Arkansas is that good... compared to Alabama right now.

And then as soon as Bama gets set up on stopping the run - oops - not a run this time... it's a fake option or just a plain drop-back pass to George Wilson, Arkansas' primary WR. He's a playmaker and he's going to burn us - count on it. Unless a true miracle happens on Saturday, Arkansas will put up over 30 points on the Tide. 5 yards here... 4 yards there... 8 yards again... 3 yards there. They will just lull you to sleep and then bam - end zone. TD Arkansas. They have that ball-control offense that Bama had last year - an offense that just pounded you to death until you just couldn't do anything. And with Matt Jones' 4.4 speed, it's going to be tough to stop them.

Now, on the flip side, Bama could win the game, obviously. Stranger things have happened (La Tech, UCF, NIU)... so Bama will have to pick and choose the best times to blitz and get Matt Jones out of his game. That's our only chance. Jones tends to be a little sporatic when he's forced out of the pocket and forces throws. If he runs, he's a primed deadly weapon. He's like Kenny Stabler out there, only faster and slicker. He's very hard to bring down. But if he throws the ball on the run, we have a chance. So Bama's DB's will have to be ready to make a rare pick in this game. Three games have passed without a turnover. Bama MUST have a turnover from Arkansas if they expect to win the game. Mark it down. If we don't get any turnovers, we will not win. If we turn the ball over, oh man - start the busses and drive our players back to Bryant Hall. It will be very hard to win this game if we lose the turnover battle. Period.

Fact is, is that Bama is not playing very well right now, and Arkansas is playing just the opposite. They dismantled North Texas a week ago, and the Longhorns the week before that. Of course, Texas is always overrated - I should know, I live here - but they were still #5 in the country and had a really good team. They'll still make a push for the Big 12 title, that's for sure.

So how will this game play out? I've hyped up Arkansas like crazy, mainly because they are doing everything right. Bama is moving the ball, but can't put it in the endzone much. Many yards, few points = Loss. Lots of points (period) = Win. We seem to be getting worse almost every week, considering the competition. The gameplan is already set in stone pretty much. I just hope that maybe this week, the coaches tried to figure out a way to make our offense a little less predictable and less vanilla. It's very basic. Yeah, I know Shula only had a month, but these players are one step below the NFL and have played football most of their lives. They aren't stupid. It's not like we're having to teach them how to put on their pads. They're big boys. They know how to play. It's just a matter of executing - making an offense work. They can do it IF the coaches want it to happen. They aren't idiots. An option play - sure we did that last year - we're not incompetent. Throw an option in there every blue moon. Run some misdirection - our team isn't so out of the loops that they can't figure it out. Seriously. We're just too predictable - and if we bring that predictability to the game on Saturday, Bama will leave the game at 2-3.

And YEAH, I KNOW we have fewer players yada yada yada due to the NCAA sanctions... so? You can still create plays that work FOR you instead of against you. Remember - players make plays. Coach Bryant didn't always have blue-chippers, but used their talent to the best of their ability and won many a game with lesser talent. THAT is what I'm talking about. Turning the average Joe into something special.

Let's bring it Saturday. Give it all you have, and stop using probation as an excuse. I KNOW for a fact that IS is a reason, but it's time to move on and make the best of it. Find a way to win. Use the talent you have and get a win. That's EXACTLY what NIU did. They had one good running back... everyone else was run-of-the-mill - but they made it happen. THAT is what I want for this team. And as much talent as we have, there's no reason why we shouldn't win the rest of our games this year. The coaches just have to figure it out and get it working.

So I'll step down off the soapbox and just call it like I see it. Bama will TRY and run - and will fail. That will force Brodie to pass WAY more than he wants... and he'll get picked off 1 or 2 times in the game. The Hogs' corners are some of the best in the league. Shaud will have a mediocre game at best as the Hogs are going to stack the box with 8 guys almost every time. No 80-yd run Saturday... but with a 90% Justin Smiley back in the lineup, Bama's odds are a little better at pulling the upset. It will take everything and more than we gave against the OU game to come out with a win against Arkansas. Only now, we're more banged up, and a few players are out. It will be tough, so here's to hoping I'm entirely wrong about the game, but until Bama proves they can put it in the end zone and GET POINTS, this is it.... Give 'em Hell Alabama - ROLL TIDE ROLL!!!
PREDICTION:      BAMA 10 ARKANSAS 35

Bamadog Note: Nailed the Hogs' score on the head, but didn't think Bama would do so well on offense. They obviously came in with a good game plan, but came up short due to excessive celebration in OT. That likely cost us the game due to 15-yd penalty. Learn from your mistakes and celebrate on the sideline next time...
ACTUAL SCORE:  BAMA 31 ARKANSAS 34 (2OT)

BAMA vs NORTHERN ILLINOIS PREDICTION

Well, here we are 3 games into the season and Bama is 2-1 overall the 1-0 in the SEC. Bama gets the good win over Kentucky and now comes one more "cupcake" before the meat of the schedule hits. Next to be added to the Bama Meat Pole - Northern Illinois.

Now of course, this game doesn't even sound like much of a challenge. NIU hardly has any football tradition, and before about 3 years ago, NIU was 3-30 at one point. They stuck with their guns and actually got their team playing pretty well. Heck, they beat then #15 Maryland in the first game of the year. I watched that game and was pretty impressed. One problem though - Alabama isn't Maryland. Maryland is a football wanna-be. They are a basketball school who every now and then might field a decent football team. This isn't really one of those years. NIU DOES however have one of THE best RB's in the country. He will definitely make it in the NFL, so Bama's day won't be as easy as you might think. But NIU also hasn't faced a defense as good as Bama's against the rush. Bama is only allowing a mere 60 or so yards per game on the ground. I believe we're #7 in the country against the rush. That doesn't bode well for NIU, that's for sure.

This week, Shula (again) wants to get the game off to a good start. This week, I think it will happen. I stated in last week's prediction that we'd score on the opening drive - little did I know we'd miss a 27-yd FG. Sheesh. Then we throw an int right before the half. Count those 2 scores, and my 38 points all of a sudden look pretty good, huh?

So back to this game - Bama will get started early, but mostly by the running of Shaud Williams and the bruising Offensive Line. NIU won't be able to stop Bama's rushing attack as both Williams and Darby are likely going to get over 100 yards of offense apiece, that is, if Darby can get in the game enough. Thru the air, it will be limited as Bama "should" control most of the game, and try to run out the clock in the 4th.

My main concern is NIU getting a freebie somewhere that actually gives them the lead. We've been prone to allowing the other team to get turnovers... fumbles and int's seems to come out of nowhere, so we have to be careful and not have them take the crowd out of the game. That's why Bama's running game will be the difference.

This week, NIU will still creep up on Bama, but come up short in the end. A likely future NFL RB vs Bama's defense will be a good matchup, but playing at home, and Bama's pure speed on defense will only allow NIU one rushing TD unless we really screw up and blow a coverage assignment. They should get another TD through the air, but I think with the game being on the road and Bama's D playing tough - they might hit a FG, but not sure there. I'm thinking no. The defense will play like wild beasts I tell ya. NIU won't stand a chance in the end as the OL wears out their defense, and NIU get frustrated enough that they have to go all-pass... and that leads to you-know-what - a Charlie Peprah Int-for-a-TD. The defense will finally score a TD in this game - or at least come close, which will put a 2-game turnover drought on the shelf. The last turnover for the Tide was Peprah's int against S. Florida.

Brodie will hook up a couple of times, and Bama RB's will take it to the house a couple of times... overall, it's going to be a good game - but a close start and NIU hangs around at the half, then Bama pulls away. I really think the Tide will be ready, and like I said, Bama's ability to shut down the running game of NIU will be the key. If NIU goes one-dimensional, watch out! Huskies - get ready to be trompled by the Tide, baby!
PREDICTION:      BAMA 38 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 14

Bamadog Note: Sheesh, was I off this week. As a 14-pt favorite, Bama rolled over instead of sticking it to the Huskies. Big surprise that the intensity wasn't there... EVERY game is big. Say this game wasn't very important? Try losing to one of these teams and see if it's not important (sound like Gene Stallings?). I'm too pissed off right now... <sigh...>
ACTUAL SCORE:  BAMA 16 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 19

BAMA vs KENTUCKY PREDICTION

First of all, congrats on a great game last week. A good one, but just not quite good enough to pull out the win against the #1 team in the country. So far, the Dog is 2-0 on predictions and this week, I look to extend the record to 3-0. Kentucky comes to town to try to win only the 2nd game against the Tide in recent history. Kentucky and Bama come into the game both at 1-1 with Bama's loss coming against OU last weekend, and Kentucky lost to Louisville the first week of the season. UK won last week's game against I-AA team Murray State.

Well, it's time for I-A football, people. UK, you're playing a REAL defense this week. And Bama, we're still playing against a good offense.

So far this season, the Tide has started slowly in each of its 2 games. This Saturday, I look for Bama to finally start out strong, especially with the running game and Shaud Williams. This will open up the passing game, and Bama will get a score on the first drive of the game. The defense will shut down Kentucky at first, but don't look for UK to lie down and roll over - they WILL score. They will score at least 17 points because, that's just what we normally allow to almost any team that we play.

Next, look for this game to go for almost 4 hours. With UK passing the ball as much as they do, that clock won't tick fast enough for the fans. So pack a snack with ya...

On offense, UK's main option will be to pass the ball. Bama will stop the run early and often. UK likely won't get over 70 yards rushing unless they get a busted play or 2 - or have a fake punt rush. UK's offense is passing the football. We saw what happened last week when the offense tried to pass the football - our defense got burned a few times. Thus will be the case again Saturday unfortunately. PLUS, Lorenzen is a senior and is one of the best QB's in SEC history. Experience alone will allow UK the chance at the upset.

But Bama's defense will be ready. They will get burned a couple of times for long pass plays - they almost always do. Even the best get burnt every now and then, right? (See Strait getting burned by Luke last week) So UK will start out slow, but by the 2nd quarter, UK will have come alive and scored a couple of times. Bama on the other hand will start out strong, take some time off... then start back up in the 3rd quarter to finish strong. Realistically, it could be a high scoring game, especially if our DB's start getting winded. But I believe the Bama D will come up with a couple of turnovers this week (where were the TO's last week?) to extend the lead and keep Bama ahead the rest of the way home. It's pretty simple - Bama's offense will run over UK's defense. Period. Bama will rush for over 200 yards in this game. We'll run, run, then run some more. Brodie will benefit the most off play-action and hit Tre' Luke and Fletcher for some big gainers. Not many FG's should be attempted as Bama should put most everything in the end zone.

I believe it will be a shootout in the 3rd with Bama pulling away in the 4th. UK's only chance at pulling off the upset is if I play running back, and even then - well, I'll still run over 'em.

Tight game at halftime, Bama with the slight edge, but too much Shaud left, Shaud right, and Shaud up the middle. OL gets it done and Bama gets its first SEC win for Shula. Watch Abney in punt returns and kickoff returns - he could skew the numbers a little if we get careless on special teams. Dangerous guy - but we should handle him...
PREDICTION:      BAMA 38 KENTUCKY 24

Bamadog Note: I knew we'd rack up some rushing yards... now it's time for the special teams to get it together a little better. Good game, but improvement needed. We score before the half and my prediction isn't too far off... I told you they would get at least 17.
ACTUAL SCORE:  BAMA 27 KENTUCKY 17

BAMA vs #1 OKLAHOMA PREDICTION

This is what it comes down to... what do I think will happen Saturday? Here are my thoughts: We CAN win. Will we? Who knows. People/press say that if we start out like we did against USF, it won't happen. Well, in my honest opinion, I don't think we'll come out flat this week. It might be slow in parts (like any game), but I don't think it will be as flat as the USF game. Bama will come out with a balanced attack. We don't want to waste Shaud's talent in the backfield. So look for a lot of draws to slow down the rush of the OU Defensive line. Then we go play action, and boom, Brodie starts getting some completions down the field. No sideline passes, please. Brodie is a "down-the-field" passer. He needs to hit guys in stride, else he tends to overthrow them.

So what do you do? Against a defense that some say is the best in the country, let's not forget that our defense was on of THE very best last year as well. Last year, if you'll recall, we held OU to negative rushing yards (-23 yards or something). So don't think the Bama team doesn't know that. We're just building them up all week so we can crush them on Saturday. Don't be a bonehead and say that "OU doesn't have much of a defense" - (see AU Offensive Lineman on ESPN - HELLO???).

So Bama will be prepared for the OU defense. Short, quick pass plays and draws will slow up the rush, and Bama's stable of running backs will hopefully start to wear down the OU defense in the 2nd half of the game. Granted, they won't tire like USF, but they DO tire like anyone. Our best weapon will be our offense. Keep their offense off the field, and DON'T HAVE A FLUKE FUMBLE RUN BACK FOR A TOUCHDOWN.

Brodie has a game under his belt and the WR's are feeling more comfortable, even without A.C. in the lineup. Shaud is an All-American type running back as he can do it all - run, catch & block. I feel really good about our chances, but the one thing that really might give the edge to OU is their unity and coaching staff. We have great unity and a good coaching staff as well, but that unity I speak of is one built on time. Stoops knows his players - he knows their limits and abilities. Shula knows too, but Stoops has been there. He's been a head coach a while now and probably has a little better feel for the college game and his players.

So that's what makes this week so hard to call. Bama's capable, just like last year - but will it happen? OU comes in as consensus #1 in America. Bama comes in as #27 in the AP, and an 8-pt underdog. Ok - so here it is....

Bama can win if we play mistake-free football. Something tells me though - that with Brodies "gun", the ball will slip through the WRs' hands, right into the defenders' hands (see Charlie Peprah last week). OU will get an interception or two. They are just that good. Plus they have a guy coming back from suspension (Free Safety if I'm not mistaken) who is top notch. Bama on the other hand, will shut down the run and force OU to pass, which they will do a lot... but an area of concern is OU's QB, White. He can scramble with the best of them, and can also burn you deep. But one main difference this year is that we don't have Herchel Bolden - so that might help as well.

The closer gametime approaches, the more I feel confident that we'll win - but the intangibles worry me and that's why I'll picking the way I do this week. It's the small things that win football games, and whether it's an extra point miss - or a costly penalty, Bama will mess up in one area that will cost us the game by less than 5 points. OU is sound. Bama is semi-sound. We're still learning - you don't get a new coaching staff and have everything working on all cylinders. OU has that one small advantage, and that's the difference in the game this weekend. Here's to hoping I'm wrong. Please Bama - WIN! I don't want that 8-hr drive back to Dallas to feel like 12 hours, aight?

So OU leads going into the half - just too much OU defense all over Brodie if we don't have a running game - around 17-10. Bama has a good 2nd half after a few adjustments, but still, OU seems to be clicking and the offense gets frustrated. Special teams don't help us as we miss a FG in this game. Prove me wrong, Tide!
PREDICTION:      BAMA 21 OKLAHOMA 31

Bamadog Note: I thought OU & Bama would both score a bit more. The defenses really came to play and kept the scoring low... but unfortunately, the outcome was still the same - a narrow Bama loss.
ACTUAL SCORE:  BAMA 13 OKLAHOMA 20

BAMA vs SOUTH FLORIDA PREDICTION

Well, it's 2003, and dang if a lot hasn't happened since Bama went to Hawaii last Thanksgiving, right? So much, that well, I don't feel like talk about it - and I'm sure you've read so much about it, you're sick of it. Basically, both Fran and Mike Price had other things that were more important than Alabama football, so we got our next Coach, Mike Shula, who I hope stays around for a long, long time. We need this in order for our program to be stable and secure. I just hope Shula is the man, and can bring Bama back a national championship within the next 10 years. Yeah, 10 years. Don't count on it in the next 5 year due to the scholarship losses that'll start being truly felt next year and so on. We could see some serious Bama contentions for National Championships realistically, by 2008 or 2009. It will be tough to even get 10-win seasons up until that point, even this year. Bama plays the #1 difficult schedule in the country based on last year's results. It's not going to be easy.

With that being said, let's take a look at USF, Bama's first game of the season, and Shula's 1st game as a College Head Coach...er, make that Head Coach of anything, period. Don't count on this being a Vanderbilt-type game. USF is no pushover. They are a team that is on the move, and is growing each and every year in number of wins.

Coach Leavitt, who Bama pursued earlier in the year, has brought this program from nothing to contender for the Conference USA title. Watch out Southern Miss. But USF, from what I have read, will spread the field on you, and go no-huddle. But Bama will be well prepared and well conditioned for this game. The defense got a good look at these 4 and 5 WR sets back in the spring, so now it's just a matter of executing on defenese. Bama stopped Hawaii - it can stop USF. Period.

But don't get too comfortable in that lay-z-boy, buddy. Come the 4th quarter, USF will make a run, if they don't already have the lead. They won't roll over and play dead - that's a fact. If they happen to be leading, well, let's not go there.

So look for the defense to play well, but still give up a few big plays. After all, that's what we do at Alabama. Give up a few big plays, but shut down the rest. USF will score. 'How much' is a good question - especially with the departure of Kenny King, Jarret Johnson, and Kindal Moorehead. Then take away Cornelius Wortham (injury) and Brooks Daniels (out for season for personal reasons), and you have a big Question Mark. Our new guys will pick up the slack, but don't expect a #1 defensive performance like we got last year.

On offense, Brodie is THE MAN now. He'll be THE MAN the next 3 years, providing he stays healthy. But based on the previous bzillion years, don't count on Croyle starting every game this year. He'll eventually get hurt - and that's when Spencer Pennington better be ready. But for USF, Brodie's the man... and Shaud is THE MAN behind THE MAN. Yes we have 2 "THE MAN's". How these 2 guys go - so do the offense. Shaud has already proven what he's capable of, and Brodie has shown us a glimpse of what he can do as well. If the WR's can run good routes, get open, AND catch the ball, we have a chance. Our backfield is as good as any other backfield in the SEC, except for maybe Auburn. Oh, Santonio Beard - smart move jetting for the NFL...er, I mean, the Canadian Football League. He now lives in British Columbia I believe - how does the cold feel, buddy. Shoulda stayed at Bama. This would have been YOUR system once again.

So anyway, the OL is back with the addition of J.B. Closner at center... TE's are back... everyone's back on offense, so now it just depends on how well the guys picked up Shula's offense in these last few short 4 weeks. The OL seems to be better and have learned new skills for pass blocking, so this year might be even better than last year, passing-wise. I guess we can thank Mike Price for something, right? That's about all though. Ok... I won't go there...

So Bama scores early... USF scores early on a mesmerized Alabama defense. Bama gets a little lax on defense, but eventually comes around and makes a pick or 2 off of USF's new QB, Ronnie Banks. It's really hard for anyone to speculate what the score will be for this game, mainly because we don't know what to expect from our offense. We have the weapons, but will it all be clicking the way it should in the first game??? I say yes, but don't think for a minutes that it'll be easy. Bama always plays down to the level of the opponent, and this week won't be any different - unless, well, the Bear helps us out a little....
PREDICTION:      BAMA 27 USF 17

Bamadog Note: Who'da thunk we'da scored 40??? Great Job Tide!
ACTUAL SCORE:  BAMA 40 USF 17