|
|
BAMADOG'S GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTIONS
- 2005 SEASON -
COTTON BOWL: #13 BAMA vs #18 TEXAS TECH PREDICTION
After reviewing a slew of stats, news, and quotes, I have determined that this year's Cotton Bowl might be one Bamafans will want to forget (as with the LSU and Iron Bowl). I have tried to mount everything to formulate a Bama win, but with NCAA scholarship reductions, the lost of Prothro, the loss of Simeon Castille (academic casualty), and the possible loss of D.J. Hall, I don't see much of a glimmer of hope for the Crimson Tide.
Forget the storied past of the Tide - this is 2006, and these are season 2005 players... not the players of 1964-66, 1978-79, or 1992. And right now, even though the Tide is 9-2 on the year, we still are lacking that 'edge' that we need to finish seasons strong. Dubose couldn't end the season with a win... Fran did it against Iowa State... and Shula hasn't done it since. The last 2 years, Shula and Bama have finished the last 3 games 0-6. This year, we could extend the streak to 0-9 for the last 3 games of the season. Of course, the NCAA reductions are helping do this to the Tide. Fatigue late in the season, not to mention replacements for injuries (ie. Prothro) just haven't come to Shula while he's been here. Last year could have been this year (or better) if Brodie wouldn't have gotten hurt. Of course, having Hudson go down didn't help, but Darby was there to pick up the slack. This year, we had no one to pick up the slack when Prothro got hurt. We're still in that rut that hopefully in 2 years we'll be able to get out of.
So at WR at the Cotton Bowl, our biggest playmaker will be a guy that started hot last year, then faded (Brown), then this year, did the same thing... started hot, then kinda faded... now Brown is our 'biggest' threat and he's coming off of a hamstring injury a couple of weeks ago, and he had fumblitus late in the season - thus causing Brodie to go to other WR's who also wanted to drop the ball (ie. Knight). So there lies the problem - we end up having to be one-dimensional with the running game. If a WR can't catch, then all you have is the running game - shut that down, and you get results of the Auburn game. We just can't catch the ball for some reason.
Now, I went to practice on Thursday and while I was watching drills before they went into the stadium to work on gameday work, our WR's and backups looked REALLY REALLY good. Now Shula has said this before - 'Our practices this week have been great' or something thereabouts. He has said that this week too. Maybe when it comes to gametime, we freak out or something. I don't know. But from what I saw, it was like Brodie (and all other QBs) could throw a pass and no matter where it was thrown, our guys would catch it. It was crazy. Of course, there were no defenders in the offense passing drills, but there were some pretty good catches out there.
So at this point, does Bama finally have enough stick'em on their hands to hang on to the ball against an offensive machine such as TT? If we don't, then our defense will once again get VERY tired, and TT will slice us up. They have scored all year... even with the losses, they have scored 3 times. So you can go ahead and give them 17-21 points. Can Bama even score that much period? With no playmakers out there besides Darby and Croyle (with no one to throw to), how can it happen? The only way I figure, is that Bama is going to have to play some very serious ball-control offensive football. The ONLY way we can keep Tech from scoring is to have long drives that eat up clock. There's honestly no other way. If we play into their hands, they will honestly score 50+ on us. Leach won't back down either. He's going to try to score all the way to the buzzer. That's just how he is. They scored 80 in a game this year - don't think he'll back off for a sec. And when he has us down (if he has us down), he's going to pound it even harder to try and humiliate us. Don't believe for a minute that it can't happen.
BUT, when it comes down to it, they have to score against the best defense in the country. Whenever TT played good defenses, that's when their offense couldn't get in sinc. Texas did it to them... and so did OSU, and OU. But those teams, especially Texas, had a similance of an offense. Bama, lately, just can't get points on the board for some reason. Now with D.J. likely out (at least for some period, whether it be for x number of quarters or the whole game), the task becomes very difficult. But back to the defense - if our D can stay off the field and make TT play OUR football, we have a chance. But it will be hard to do if Bama's running game doesn't flourish... and it has to flourish bigtime if we don't catch the ball. And the more times you throw the ball, the more times you have that chance of stopping the clock... which means the game lasts longer, which means TT will have even more chances to score on you. So clock control is the key - will Bama be able to control the clock? They will try... and at times will be successful. BUT in the times the offense isn't successful, that's when the TT offense will take advantage of the defensive fatigue and start the rout. Hopefully it won't be worse, but with TT scoring at least 21, Bama's in trouble. Here's to hoping Bama has had a magic hat out at practice this week - and is allowed to take it to the game... including that stick'em we desperately need. Oh, and maybe the blocking for Croyle will get better too... else we might actually see a little John Parker in this game. We can't just get man-handled like the Iron Bowl. We've had time to prepare.... so lay it all out on the field..... and PROVE ME WRONG, TIDE!! ROLL, BABY!!
PREDICTION: BAMA 20 - TEXAS TECH 27
ACTUAL SCORE: BAMA 13 - TEXAS TECH 10 (BAMADOG 8-4)
Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: Here's a huge bottle of wine to me being off this week!! CHEERS, CRIMSON TIDE! You earned it, and hats off to Jamie Christianson for hitting the game-winner for the 3rd time this year.... Great job guys, to get Bama back on the map with another 10-win season. ROLL TIDE!!
#8 BAMA vs #11 AUBURN PREDICTION
Man, I still so pissed off at that stupid LSU game, it's driving me nuts. But like the team, I'm having to move forward and deal with the fact that THIS game could still determine the SEC West winner. Remember, LSU still has to beat Ole Miss and Arkansas to be the West respresentative in the SEC Championship. Sounds easy, but you the old saying - 'Any Given Saturday...' and it holds true here. Both teams have good defenses, and both CAN beat LSU - it's a matter of Will They? We'll see...
So that makes this Iron Bowl really big. I think LSU might slip, and that's not wishful thinking. LSU is good, but they will overlook one of those teams and take a hit. I still look for Bama/Auburn winner to play in the SECC.
As for this game, Bama has their work cut out for them. We play the #1 offense in the league, not that that's saying much. Defense is the name of this conference, so look for another low-scoring game. The difference here though, is that AU has more playmakers on offense. Bama has a few, but our biggest problem has been hanging on to passes. Brodie can throw them to their hands, but if they don't catch the ball, it does us no good. I believe Darby will run his heart out... I definitely feel a 100+ yard game ahead for him tomorrow. But with the Alabama OL facing probably the best front four it will face all year, it can't be any worse than last week for Bama's offense. Hopefully we have seen the worst of the worst. We have to give Brodie more time if we expect to win this game.
On the other side of the ball, Bama's defense will play lights-out. It's a matter of if we can hold AU to less points than we score of course... like LSU, they played well, but the offense didn't do quite enough to win the game. Bama still holds the #1 spot on scoring defense in the country, but AU is right behind them. It will be very tough with the crowd noise, so I look for the Bama WRs to do their best, but come up a little short on offense. We'll have to heavily rely on the defense and special teams to get the game for us. I don't know how, but they will.
On paper, AU has the game won. With the crowd, Bama is at a disadvantage. The problem for AU is that they didn't lose all the marbles last week like we did, and THAT is the driving force that will give Alabama the victory over Auburn. Pure will and guts to win the game. It's close, and AU won't stop fighting, but neither will Bama. A loss here really ends Bama's season on a sour note.... and a likely bowl game here in Dallas, TX, which isn't so bad. But I prefer to win and go to another bowl. And that's what's gonna happen. This week, it's short and sweet. We'll just want it more - and that's normally who wins this one. ROLL TIDE!
PREDICTION: BAMA 17 - PLAIN-CATS 16
ACTUAL SCORE: BAMA 18 - AUBURN 28 (BAMADOG 8-3)
Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: Well, I honestly wanted to pick Auburn to win this game, but I just couldn't do it. Looks like what I was thinking, actually happened instead of what I put on here. What a butt whippin'. AU got up early and we didn't have an answer for an Auburn onslaught of rushers.... Now recruiting new Offensive Linemen for next season....
#4 BAMA vs #5 L.S.U. PREDICTION
Wow.... where do I even start? I'm almost at a loss of words because this game is so hard to predict. First, let's just take a look at some of the facts about this game, ok?
LSU has never beaten the Tide 3 times in a row.
Thirteen consecutive 9-0 Alabama teams have won their 10th game.
LSU has the SEC's best red zone offense and Alabama has the SEC's best red zone defense. LSU has scored on 24 of the 27 times that it has penetrated its opponents' 20-yard line, with 19 TDs. Alabama has allowed a score on only 10 of the 20 times an opponent has penetrated its 20 -- 4 TDs and 6 FGs.
In games against 3 of the top 7 defenses in the league (Florida, Auburn and Tennessee), LSU has averaged a respectable, by SEC standards, 20.7 points in regulation. 2 of the 3 went to OT, and LSU kicked field goals in each.
The Tigers also boast a strong defense, one that is 6th in the country in scoring (13.9) and 12th overall (295.75).
While the Alabama offense has been out of whack for a trio of SEC games since the hysteria of the Florida bashing, the Crimson Tide defense has gone into overdrive.
Alabama RB Darby, who leads the SEC with 968 rushing yards, needs 32 yards to become the fourth Bama back to post consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. ... Croyle needs 70 passing yards to become the first Tide QB with two 2,000-yard seasons. He needs 171 passing yards to pass Andrew Zow as Bama's career leader.
AND LAST, the LSU game will mark the final home game for 23 Alabama seniors. They are: Mark Anderson, Justin Ballard, Taylor Britt, Brandon Brooks, J.B. Closner, Jake Collins, Brodie Croyle, Rudy Griffin, Roman Harper, Victor Horn, Juke King, Stephen Kulback, Drew Lane, Anthony Madison, Greg McLain, Matt Miller, Charlie Peprah, Freddie Roach,
DeMeco Ryans, Mark Sanders, Ryan Saxby, Jeremy Schatz and David Steakley.
So as you can see, that's a LOT to think about for this week's game. Lots of pros and incentives for the Tide, and yet LSU is still as good as advertised when a good and focused Russell shows up at QB for LSU. When he's off though, he's really off - and turnover prone. LSU will have to roll the dice to see what they get while we roll our dice to see if we can make something out of our offense this weekend.
The thing is, is that Russell gets rid of the ball fast and has an unbelievably strong arm. He can throw the ball 70 yards and not even look like he's trying to throw that hard. I saw it in the game against Auburn... It's a very quick motion so the defense has VERY little time to respond to an arm "wind-up". It's very hard to defend - similar to what we saw with Michael Spurlock at Ole Miss. He had a good number of completions as well because of his quick release. Then throw in the fact that they have some of the best WR's in the SEC. Wow - what a dangerous combination.
BUT, the fact that the Tide is seen as the underdog in the same stadium where this team annihilated the equally over-hyped Florida Gators earlier in the year is almost too ironic to be true. Is it even possible for the same people that gave Alabama a snowball's chance in h311 against the Gators to underestimate the Tide in an almost identical situation just a month later? You would have to overlook so much to count the Tide out of this game: its top-ranked defense, its undefeated record, LSU's total collapse against Tennessee in Baton Rouge and the fact the LSU hasn't played in front of a remotely impressive road crowd this season. And don't even think that ASU was a good crowd.
See, LSU is in a similar position as Bama in the fact that they have played 2 'good' teams in UT and Auburn. Everyone else, as it turns out (even UT) isn't all that great. LSU's last 2 games have been against cupcakes where they have rolled up yards and TDs... and these are the stats they are comparing to this week's game. "In the last 2 games, the Tigers have done this... and they have done that...". Well, heck, look what we did against Utah State then. Naaah. Instead, the media can just say "against SEC competition" - they don't include cupcakes like they have LSU's schedule. So anyway, we have beaten #5 Florida who still may or may not be the East Champ... and UT who was #17 at the time and a team that actually BEAT LSU.
Now, last year, Bama hung tough with LSU till the very end; heck, we were winning at the half 10-6... then we were down only 13-10 after the 3rd quarter... and we didn't have an offense (if you think this year we don't have an offense, think back to last year, OK??). But LSU lit us up for 13 more to make the score a bit more lopsided. Now throw in the fact that Bama is EVEN BETTER THIS YEAR on defense, our offense is better with Brodie and Darby healthy.. and Castille is back... not to mention we're playing at home.... we have an outstanding chance to pull the "upset" tomorrow.
Shula and the media are just hyping them up like crazy... didn't this happen against Florida? Yep. And the same thing COULD happen. I can already picture it now.... the crowd will have Florida-like noise as this game is for all the marbles for the most part. The players come out of the tunnel and dude, They Are Hyped! The band is playing Yeah Alabama... the Crowd is getting into it (wow - I just got a chill), the Big Rooooooooooooll TIDE, ROLL! explodes when the first team kicks off the ball. But lemme tell ya - the DEFENSE is going to be PUMPED. They will be READY. They are going to be FOCUSED. They KNOW what's at stake - the SEC West. And they will not quit until the clock hits zero. It might be close, or it might be a quick explosion like what we did against Florida. Turnovers can quickly change the face of the game.
And I honestly don't think we're going to see Brodie have 2 bad games in a row. The determination in his eyes this week in practice is unbelievable. Darby is focused... the whole offense is going to take what happened at MSU and correct those dumb mistakes/turnovers and get some points this week. Why? Because we will need points to win. I believe LSU COULD put up around 14-17 points tomorrow.... but it will be set up by this:
Bama lost Closner. Now Taylor Britt will get the start at Center. True freshman Evan Cardwell is 2nd string and Shula desperately does NOT want to play him because he was planned to be redshirted this year. If Britt goes down, then Cardwell's redshirt is gone for this year. Wasted... but if we win because of him, it's NOT a waste. We can get more linemen in upcoming classes.
But for Bama to really have success, we HAVE to control the clock and keep our offense on the field as our offense WILL be our best defense. If we continue to have 3-and-out's time after time, our defense WILL GET TIRED and LSU will exploit that to the fullest. As good as Bama is, they are still human. Remember, they were VERY tired against UT on that drive that we got the touchback. Thanks to an injury timeout by UT, we were able to get our breath and make a play. But if we don't control the running game, we're in BIG TROUBLE. And with Closner out, that will be tough. LSU's front four will be as good or better than UT... and you remember how tough it was to run that day.
Add in the fact that they like to blitz a lot, and that the outside rush has been getting to Brodie lately, and we're really asking for a loss. We have to pick up these outside blitz packages or Brodie will end up on his back... or on a stretcher, and we don't need either one. If Bama can somehow get some inside draws against those blitzes or some quick slants by the WR's, we might be able to slow up the rush a little and move the ball down the field. Our OL is still VERY YOUNG and it will be tough to move the ball. Remember - LSU's defense is no joke. Since UT, they have only given up around 6 points per game - that's pretty even keel with Bama.
And what's the best way to do all this? Good field position. That's where we lose the battle and have to figure out a way to flip it - Skyler Green is the best punt returner in college football - maybe better than Bush at USC. He's fast, elusive, and can score on you on punt returns and kickoffs. I'm hoping that we kick away from him - or just kick it out of bounds, because if we kick it to him, he's going to get some serious yards and screw up Bama's field position. Our defense can't compete against this team and win if we're constantly on our own side of the field after a punt return. So like I said before, we have to control the ball bigtime... and put TDs on the board and keep our defense off the field.
Now, do I think we can do all this???? Good question. We Can. And I have a strong suspicion that our defense is going to play lights out... and like the Florida game, though I don't think the score will be the same, I think we're going to surprise a few folks. Remember, defense wins championships... the offense just has to score more than the other one, right? Both D's are tight... but with the home crowd advantage, you have to favor the Tide by a single hair.....or less. You can't win a football game if you can't score - ask Mississippi State (even though Croom claims they should have won the game. what?? huh?? are you stupid??). And Bama's D WILL give Bama a fighting chance to win this game. The OL must give Darby some running room... he's doing too much of the work himself and he's going to tire out and get hurt. We need him fresh, so look for Coffee and Johns to get some good carries in this game.
Man, all I see right now is the LSU defensive line parking themselves in the backfield forcing Bama to go one-dimension by only passing the ball. But somehow we get the job done... somehow, someway... it will get done in a tough-fought game. Don't expect a lot of scoring unless we just go haywire by freak accident. With the home crowd getting even louder than UF and UT together, Bama pulls out a tight one and shows the media and doubters alike, that BAMA is STILL BACK... and we're here to go all the way. Close game at the half, but defense is the name of the game for both teams in the 2nd half... one costly mistake by LSU will seal their fate... the defense gets it done. LSU is going down. You heard it here... now I hope Bama makes it happen. ROLL TIDE!
PREDICTION: BAMA 16 - LSU 13
ACTUAL SCORE: BAMA 13 - LSU 16 (OT) (BAMADOG 8-2)
Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: So I got the score right, but the teams wrong. I'm really too pissed off to care right now after time after time after time, the refs are BLOWING Bama's games. Sure Bama could stop dropping passes and move the ball, but it doesn't help a team when the refs determine the outcome of a game by calling phantom pass interference calls, and not calling holding calls against LSU's OL. Stupid game. Stupid refs. Stupid outcome. Bama's still 9-1 on the year and can finish strong with a win against AU next week.
#4 BAMA vs MISSISSIPPI STATE PREDICTION
Bama heads to Starkville this weekend as a pretty heavy favorite (17 points), but don't let stats get you too giddy these days. Remember the Ole Miss game? Bama might have slightly overlooked the Rebels since UT was lurking the following week. Hopefully that was a lesson learned...
This week, we need to focus ONLY on Mississippi State, because in this SEC Race, this game is JUST as important as the rest. Lose this one, and we're out of the National championship hunt, though our SEC Championship run wouldn't be totally dismantled. In any case, it still wouldn't help our chances of getting into a BCS bowl should we lose a game. So Bama has to come out fast and deliver a knock-out punch in the 1st half. Bama will have their hands full as we take on one of the best running backs in the SEC - Jerious Norwood. Last year, he reeled off a 50-yd TD before we even knew what hit us - right up the gut in Bryant-Denny. Bam, we're down 7-0 to lowly MSU. Bama would eventually pull away, but not really until the 4th quarter. This MSU team losing to UK last week doesn't mean jack-squat. They will be ready for Bama - remember, teams usually play up/down to the quality of the opponent in the SEC, and the defense is always tough, regardless. So don't expect MSU to roll over easily. Bama must execute well to win this game.
On the flip side, MSU is starting a new redshirt QB, Michael Henig, against what is, in my opinion, the best OVERALL defense in the country with Bama's D being ranked in the Top 10 in each major defensive category, the only team to do so. That in itself will be MSU's undoing more than likely, though the newbie could surprise us. But I'm thinking NOT. This defense has seen it all, and from more experienced QBs in this league. I definitely look for 1-2 interceptions in this game by our defense, and I also expect the previous QB, Omarr Connor, to come in to try and patch things up after redshirt boy gets schooled. Ok, I know it sounds all cocky and all, but that's the reality of it. Imagine a rookie going up against one of the BEST defenses in the land. What have previous QBs even done this year? Nothing.... thus my logic. Hopefully, the Bama D will shut him down.
As for the MSU running attack, Norwood is their answer. The Bama defense will focus mainly on Norwood and make Henig win the game for State. I just don't see it happening this year. Not with this experienced defense.
For Bama, Brodie and company really need to be on the ball. I really look for Darby to have the biggest day of all. Tim Castille will be a gametime decision, but either way, we'll see McClain get most of the snaps for sure. We'll need Castille as close to 100% for the next 2 games, so no need to tweek anything in this game. Croyle will also try to keep his non-interception streak alive. It stands at 185 passes without an interception right now. He'll be on the lookout for D.J. Hall yet again, but this week, we hope to have a fully healthy Keith Brown on the field. He failed to play in the USU game due to a minor injury. Caddell and Knight also need to be play-makers this weekend as Brodie needs to feel confident that he can go to anyone on the field and distribute the ball well among everyone. When one guy gets the ball too much, it's too easy to get turnovers since they know who you're going to. Hopefully we can keep up the improvement we saw from last week and build on that. Zeke Knight really needs to have a good game to get his confidence level up.
As for special teams, we'll show the 2-back look again, which I honestly feel fits what we have right now. It helps the blocking as we already have a guy back there to help... and we can also put in a trick reverse play. I definitely look for a reverse in one of these last 3 games. Let's hope they have worked out the kinks in practice this week and gotten this team back on track prior to Pro getting hurt. Right now, I still think we're a step or two behind that point.
So to call the game, for me, I think it's a gimmie game. On paper it's a gimmie, and on the field it'll be a gimmie. I know I said that about Ole Miss, but the difference here is that MSU is really not that good. They still lost to Kentucky last week.. and MSU is one of THE worst scoring offenses in NCAA D-I football. Add that to the fact that they are playing the best defense they have played all year... and well, the odds don't look good for the Dogs. The Tide rolls, and honestly, they really roll big in the 2nd half and Darby gets the ball and wears down the MSU defense. But don't count on Darby getting 200 yards like he did last year.... coaches will keep him fresh and get other backs plenty of playing time during the game. No need to put Darby on the Injured Reserve, right? At halftime, the score could be close, but the game won't be in jeopardy. I'm guessing MSU will get no more than 10 points, and the Tide will get more than 10, which adds up to a Tide win. As long as the OL keeps Brodie up in one piece, Bama rolls, and keeps the dream alive in 2005. Bama has allowed one rushing TD all year... but something tells me Norwood gets a freebie in there somewhere due to a goofed-up Bama turnover... we'll see. Get 'R Done, Tide. ROLL, BABY!
PREDICTION: BAMA 30 - MISSISSIPPI STATE 7
ACTUAL SCORE: BAMA 17 - MISSISSIPPI STATE 0 (BAMADOG 8-1)
Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: Super sloppy game with no continuity, rhythm, or flash. Could a game last any longer with more penalties, injuries, replays, bad calls, and TV timeouts??? Sheesh. Glad to get the shutout as this makes Bama now the #1 Scoring Defense in the country... and that's the D stat that really matters. Good road win, ugly or not. We're 9-0, baby.
#5 BAMA vs UTAH STATE PREDICTION
Normally, I'd say this game would be a blowout, but with the lack of offense lately, I'm not so sure, even against lowly Utah State. Remember, Utah State isn't exactly a high school team - they're still 18-21 year olds that play on the field just like us, and things can happen. BUT, in this game, the Bama defense will be trying to get the shutout - that's for sure.
As for the offense, hopefully we can get our crap straight before the rest of the SEC schedule hits. Nothing is a sure thing, even against Mississippi State the following weekend, so we REALLY need to fine-tune our offense and get the kinks out. We've scored ONE MERE TOUCHDOWN since Prothro was injured! What does that say about our MVP? It means we miss him dearly and we really need some people to step up their game if that's possible. So far, no one has really stepped up like we need. Hall had 10 catches for close to 140 yards last week, and every catch was HUGE especially the last one... BUT we're not putting points on the board. Some of that is the WR's and some of that is Brodie. We just have to get it fixed and continue to get better.
As for this game, it SHOULD be a pushover game though the Aggies should definitely not be overlooked. No one should, as we saw by Ole Miss. The offense will start clicking mainly because the Utah State defense isn't all that. And the Bama Defense is going to have a hayday forcing the Aggies to rely solely on the air game as they will shut down the ground game early and hopefully establish a big lead by the end of the 3rd quarter. Our starters need a big rest, and even one quarter of rest will help before the rest of the SEC schedule comes up. Bama wins the game easily, but it's not a shutout as the 2nd and 3rd teamers will allow a late TD. But I don't expect much while the 1st-team defense is out there. Hopefully this game will get our confidence back and fix the problems we're having on offense. Call it a tune-up game before the last 3 big 'uns determine the fate of the Crimson Tide's post-season. Also, it's good to see Pro outta the hospital and out with the team. I'm sure he'll be an inspiration for this team to win out for the season... but it's still played on the field, and we don't have Pro the rest of the way. Easy game this week, but it won't be after this one.
PREDICTION: BAMA 34 - UTAH STATE 7
ACTUAL SCORE: BAMA 35 - UTAH STATE 3 (BAMADOG 7-1)
Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: "Easy" win for the Tide, and we got some kinks out of the offense against a very inferior team. MSU, LSU, and Auburn will be much tougher... but at least maybe we got a littl rhythm back. Good win, and I almost nailed the score this week. Wow.
#5 BAMA vs #17 TENNESSEE PREDICTION
That's right - it's the 3rd Saturday, er... um, the 4th Saturday in October and it's Bama vs UT. Make that #5 BAMA vs #17 UT. For the first time in a long time, Bama's finally ranked ahead of the Vols in this classic matchup. It looks to be a great game and on paper, the Tide has the Vols whipped. BUT.... this game isn't played on paper, so the Vols could easily slip one past the Tide to make it the last 10 of 11 won by Ugly ole orange. So now what does the Tide do to win? We have to protect the football, and make UT beat us in the air. We can stop Riggs. We can, we must, and we will. Clausen/Ainge will have to beat us in the air, and with our upperclassmen in the 2ndary and the LB's protecting the middle, I see UT having a really hard time winning this ball game. I think it COULD be close, though there's a chance Bama could actually run away with a big win. The problem is still filling those GIANT shoes of Prothro's. Man, we missed him for the Ole Miss game. Special teams can really use a huge boost... but hopefully, the coaches have found something this past week that could give us a spark there.
On offense Bama will try and get Darby some yards and build off of play-action. Everything for Bama will depend on the running game, a part of the game that we didn't do too great last week. 1/2 of Darby's yards came on one run - though that run was huge. Brodie looks to have a great game. He and the other Seniors have to win this year. They know what it takes to win... and Bama's been winning the close ones so far. We know what it means to win ballgames, and we don't want to go backwards. We're #5 in the country, and we definitely don't want to lose that spot in the national championship race. Brodie is on a roll.... he doesn't want to lose, and he'll make sure this team stays together on offense, and Ryans will keep the defense in check. I look for a huge defensive game, as it usually is with UT, but Bama pulls away early in the 1st half to make it a pretty comfortable lead at halftime. I just hope the absence of Pro doesn't hurt us quite as bad this week, and that the players REALLY put their best foot forward this week. This game, in my opinion, is bigger than Auburn this year. We CAN'T lose to UT. Period. That's all I can say. DON'T LOSE THIS GAME.
There ain't much else to say this week. We know what we have to do... and this year, Bama gets it done. Bryant-Denny will be louder than Bama-UF a couple of weeks ago... it will be louder than Bama-OU a few years ago. I was at that game, and I've never heard BD that loud before. Well, tomorrow when I get the stadium for pregame and kickoff, I think we'll sense a NEW version of LOUD.... I can't wait. Plus, we can't lose because that would mean I have to travel back to Dallas, TX (8 hours) having lost to UT yet again... talk about making a road trip that much longer. Ouch.
So initially, Bama and UT both stop each other... but late in the first half, Bama makes a run... the defense really swarms around UT QB (whoever that will be), and makes some huge plays. Plus, UT QB's always have a knack of really getting sacked hard by one of our guys. Nothing will change. Bama's Defense will dominate the game... and the Bama offense will do just enough to give Bama the comfortable win, though not a blowout. Bama's heads are on straight this week as opposed to last week, plus we're back in our house - the BEAR'S DEN. Look for a good game..... with a good outcome. Bama. Bama. Bama. ROLL TIDE!
PREDICTION: BAMA 20 - TENNESSEE 13
ACTUAL SCORE: BAMA 6 - UT 3 (BAMADOG 6-1)
Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: Defensive game in which the Tide made their own opportunities. UT didn't beat themselves, Bama did. Without the play of our outstanding defense, UT doesn't fumble the ball.... but we DID cause those fumbles and Bama capitalized. Biggest win of the year, even if we beat Auburn - this one WAS BIGGER THAN BIG. It was FREAKIN' HUGE... and the Tide got it done. Great job!
#6 BAMA vs OLE MISS PREDICTION
It's been a while, but Bama's finally back on the gridiron. After a week off to bask in the awards shooting Bama's way left and right, Bama gets to take on the Ole Miss Rebels in Oxford where the Tide has lost there the last 2 times it has visited Vaught-Hemmingway Stadium. Bama lost there in 2001 by the score of 24-27, and in 2003 by 28-43 after Eli Manning reeked havoc on the Tide to an early 28-0 lead and the Tide couldn't catch up being down that far.
The last time Bama actually won in Oxford was 6 years ago when Mike DuBose was head coach of Alabama. That was the year Bama beat Florida twice and won the SEC Championship and then played in the Orange Bowl against Michigan. So the Tide has something to prove on Saturday and they aren't taking it like a pushover game. Ole Miss is no pushover though when it comes gametime tomorrow, Bama may just MAKE it a pushover game.
I expect Bama to come out strong and put the hammer to Ole Miss early and often. And not just because of the way we played against Florida, but because this team is finally gelling, and can play against anyone in the country including USC and Texas. Hopefully, the off-week didn't slow down the Tide; plus, the SI jinx shouldn't hold true since someone else is on the cover this week, right? So all things point to Alabama this weekend.
The spread on the game this week is a mere 13 points. I'm actually kinda stunned because this year's team is in no way in a class the last team that went to Oxford was in. This Bama team has leadership, more scholarship players, is more talented, is more focused, and knows Shula's system like the back of their hand. Shula finally has his system working, and the Tide is flourishing bigtime right now. Listening to the Ole Miss Coach in the SEC Coaches Teleconference on Wednesday, Ed Orgeron sounds like he's on drugs or something. He honestly doesn't even sound like a guy that even knows what he's doing. Cutcliff didn't win a lot after Manning left, but what do you expect. They still got rid of a good coach in my opinion. Now, they have another coach that will be fired before 5 years is up. He just doesn't sound too bright.
So anyway back to the game at hand. Bama will not overlook Ole Miss. No how. No way. Bama won't be looking to the Tennessee game next week, because without a win this week, next week's game isn't nearly as big. Every week gets bigger and the Tide knows what's at stake. After all, we're due for a national championship. We seem to win them every 13 years, right? And now, the Tide is playing like they are king of the SEC. But the toughest games on the schedule are still in front of us... it starts with a weak Ole Miss team. Yes, WEAK. They have struggled all year. Check this: they squeak by Memphis 10-6, lost to Vandy 23-31, lost to Wyoming 14-24, lost to Tennessee 10-27, and "whipped" the Citadel last week 28-7, holding the Citadel to under 100 yards of TOTAL offense. Well, nothing here has impressed me at all. Bama is better than ALL of these teams combined... and if Vandy and UT beat Ole Miss handily, imagine what the Tide is going to do tomorrow. OUCH!!
It's going to be ugly people. The 13-pt spread is absurd. I can honestly invision it right now... the ball is kicked off to Ole Miss because we lose the toss... and the Bama D is going to be pumped-freakin'-up, people. Remember Florida? South Carolina? This is the SEC, and the Bama D is going to make a statement. Period. If Ole Miss even makes it into the end zone tomorrow, it will be against the 2nd-teamers in the 2nd half. No way Ole Miss even touches the end zone. They have QB problems, and no proven RB this year. They have NO WEAPONS. Given that you have to have weapons to win a game, much less win a game against one of the best defenses in the country - how do you score? Special teams might be their only chance honestly. But I don't see that happening either. Bama will be focused despite the early playing time. And because Bama will jump on Ole Miss quickly with the running game (yes, Darby will have a huge day), Ole Miss won't even be able to resort to FG's since the game will already be out of hand by the time that happens. Look for a solid blowout with the reserves getting plenty of playing time nearing the mid-way point of the 3rd quarter. It's not bragging - Ole Miss is just that bad.
Now for the main item on tap for Saturday - the absence of Prothro. It will hurt us. I have already stated my case in last week's take on the game. But against Ole Miss, Bama shouldn't miss a beat. D.J. Hall will probably be returning punts for the Tide, and Hall/Brooks will likely be back receiving kickoffs. Brooks isn't nearly as fumble-prone when returning kicks rather than punts. At least I say that right now, huh? Caddell might even get a look at kickoff returns - we shall see. But with the absence of Prothro, everyone on the team will have #4 on their uniform somewhere. His spirit will be there, and the Tide will keep him close as they tear up the Rebels left and right. It's time we took back Vaught-Hemmingway Stadium... and it'll happen. Count on it. Bama big in the 1st half... Darby will have a huge game, and Coffee may also break 100 yards on the day, even in mop-up duty. Croyle will have an average day since he'll be out as early as possible, so don't look for huge numbers from him. But the Bama D will shut down the Rebels. Ole Miss will be lucky if they get 10 catches on the day against our 1st-team Defense. And Scoring? Ole Miss won't score. And I don't ever do this.... but look for the Bama shutout.... then and ONLY then will Ole Miss possibly score - if Bama's 2nd and 3rd teamers are in the game. But given the fact that Bama's better all-around than Ole Miss, I look for a woodshed beating. Bama BIG. 13-pt spread?? You HAVE to be kidding me. Nuff said.
PREDICTION: 41 minus 7 (no Prothro) = BAMA 34 - OLE MISS 0
ACTUAL SCORE: BAMA 13 - OLE MISS 10 (BAMADOG 5-1)
Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: Ugly, Ugly, Ugly. But I'll take it. We finally have a game-winning FG. It's been a while since we had one of those... and we won a CLOSE game. Shula has had a hard time winning the close ones, but even though it was Ole Miss, it's a win in Oxford, and we're 6-0 going into Tennessee. ROLL TIDE!
#15 BAMA vs #5 FLORIDA PREDICTION
Wow! Really, really tough pick this week - that's for sure. The spread is only Florida by 3.5, but they get Bama in T-Town. Wow... where do you start? Both teams are pretty even in every aspect, but being so close means little room for error. Actually, on BOTH offense AND defense, Florida is ahead of the Tide, so it's not like we can say Bama's D is better... or Bama's O is better.... overall, Florida is JUST better by the statbook. Bama leads UF in very few categories... like punt returns, kick returns, sacks... mostly just some minor individual statistics. So that's what makes this decision this week so hard. My gut tells me Florida will win, but I know for a fact that Bama can win if we just don't make stupid mental mistakes and catch the football (WR's stop dropping the ball, and also Roach needs to catch 'em). The South Carolina game is over. That game was nearly perfect. Now, we have played a good Arkansas team - a good running team, and we saw some chinks in the armour as we let Arkansas back in the game. All I can say is that I hope we have made the corrections from last week to this week.
But big games usually bring out the best in every player. Maybe the focus is there just a little more... maybe certain play-calls are played a little differently, respecting your opponent's defense or offense. One big play by either side could spell DOOM for the other. The the BIG MO(mentum) switches hands, and sometimes it's hard to get it back. Bama needs to grab the MO early, and not give it up. The key here will be one thing, and one thing only - STOP THE FLORIDA RUNNING GAME. As long as the game is close, I think UF will have a bit of success - it will keep Bama guessing. Bama's great at stopping the run, but this "run offense" is a bit different as RB's/QB's come out the backfield in all kinds of different ways. Misdirection is really what's key for Florida. They will try and get Bama guessing which way the running play will go, and we're going to have to guess right or it's lights out for Bama. The other thing we must capitalize on is Leak's lack of speed. He's not very fast... add that in with the fact that the OL of UF has given up a LOT of sacks, and Bama might have a chance in this phase of the game. Sacks can change the face of the game... we have to get to Leak to have a chance... or at least get him rushing his passes.
On the other end, UF's main WR target will be Jackson. He already has 32 receptions on the year (that's a lot for 4 games, by the way) for 401 yds and 6 TDs. For Bama, compare that to Hall who has 12 receptions for 231 yds and 3 TDs, 2 of those came last week. But every week, it seems like we have a different WR that steps up to the plate, so that part doesn't concern me as much as their main threat getting open due to a positive-gaining running game by the Gators.... so that will be key - stop their running game & get them in "throw only" mode and then we can play OUR GAME.
Now the key for Bama's offense will be simple - dominate the line of scrimmage (as is any game, right?). But this game will be much harder. UF's DL is full of experience. UA's line isn't. Darby could have a very rough day getting into the open field, but hopefully, at halftime, Bama can come alive as in past games this year, and dominate, giving Darby big holes and big gainers. Once that happens, Brodie will be able to have a little more time to throw, and Shula's play-action will be a little more effective. That's the key to Bama's offense rolling - Darby and co. have to be a threat. And hopefully, we won't get such crappy field position like we had last week against the Hogs. Being pinned back at the 1 yd line twice in the first half didn't help Bama's scoring as it changed the first 15 scripted plays that Shula likes to set up to start the game. I think Bama's WR's will have a decent game if our running game unfolds like it should... but our OL (again) will be the key. Can they dominate a more experienced DL?
And the Bama D isn't the only good D on the field Saturday. Florida ranks ahead of the Tide in this year's game. Granted, they have played 3 cupcakes and then a struggling UT team, but statistically, they ARE better. Bama has played a slightly harder schedule having played USM, S. Carolina, and Arkansas. It's not much better, but I believe we have been tested just a hair more. Leak has gotten better since UT, that's for sure. He killed powerhouse Kentucky last weekend.... but now, we'll see how much he REALLY has mastered Meyer's offense. If Wynn (RB) doesn't have a good game, don't expect Leak to do it all on the ground either with the option game. On the year, here's an interesting stat. In the option game, the QB can hold or pitch the ball. Well, in 4 games this year, Leak has a total of 49 yds gained and 48 yards lost... so he's net 1 yard rushing this year... which means he's really not going to rush the ball much - he, more often than not, will either pitch the ball or just start off the play with misdirection, and we have to figure out who he hands the ball off to. Other than that, it's just cover the WR's and tackle and Bama gets the Win. Wynn and Portis COMBINED have a total of 296 yards rushing. Darby has 412 on his own, and Coffee has 112 in backup duty. So it's the passing game that flourishes... maybe because teams are able to shut down the run... so it'll be up to Bama's experienced 2ndary and LB's to make things happen.
On special teams, we're probably pretty even. Prothro is one of the most dangerous return men in the country, but the actual kicking game of Bama is still suspect. As we saw last week, we let Arkansas get the punter and that almost changed the face of the game.... could have lost us the game as the Big Mo went to the Hogs. And Christensen has done well, but not yet make "the kick" in pressure situations. How these young guys do, will also play a big part in the outcome of this game... as will ALL Bama's young guns. We're still learning, so the inexperience for Bama could still sneak up on us..... but back to Florida....
Leak has YET to throw an interception this year too. He has 9 TD's. Something's gotta give. Whether it's the competition or whether he's that good - we have to make plays on defense to keep this game close... or UF will slice and dice us. Bama's offense will struggle for most of the day, in my opinion. Darby probably wont' get 100 yards total though with the help of Coffee and Castille, we'll get close or pass the 100-yd barrier. So the game will be on Croyle to win... so our WRs have to hang on to the ball. Can Hall, Prothro, and Brown get things done? or will the TE get involved again to give the Tide the advantage? One thing's for certain, the crowd will be into it - Bryant-Denny will be loud, and THAT may be the deciding factor in a handful of drives to be the difference in the game... UF could get a little rattled, and Leak will make a mistake or two... and the defense of Alabama will rise. The Bama offense will feed off that energy, the crowd will get into it... and Bama comes up, in the end atop the SEC.
THIS GAME WILL NOT BE EASY, PERIOD. Florida WILL get a big play or two on offense, and the Bama D is just going to have to FORGET IT and do better.... and hopefully, the offense can pull out just enough plays to win the game. And this game, people, could easily come down to a FG attempt in OT as the defenses will keep the game low-scoring and close. I'm thinking teens-20's... but not a blowout. If it is, I'll be totally surprised. But the stats are so close, UF loses in an extremely close game, but they lose it in the 2nd half as Bama trails at halftime. It's going to be a hard hill to climb, but Bama makes it to the top of the mountain and yells ROLL TIDE as we make it there... and beat the #5 Florida Gators in Bryant-Denny.... This isn't wishful thinking... it's all here... and the Tide wins a close one. Why? Because Bama's D isn't a 4-game wonder - it's for real - something Florida's offense will learn on Saturday. ROLL TIDE.
PREDICTION: BAMA 23 - FLORIDA 21
ACTUAL SCORE: BAMA 31 - FLORIDA 3 (BAMADOG 4-1)
Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: Wow! Great & impressive game by the Tide. The loss of Prothro overshadows the win because he's Bama's biggest playmaker. But this is one of the biggest wins in the last 5 years next to UT in 2002. Bama gets their first win against a Top 5 team in Bryant-Denny, and rewards are coming to the Tide left and right. Great overall win - keep it up!
#20 BAMA vs ARKANSAS PREDICTION
Unfortunately, I have to make this really quick this week, being on temporary dial-up and having to keep the phone lines open... so here goes........
Bama will win this game. Period. Arkansas will try and keep it close early, but the Bama Defense will do just enough to force the Hogs to have to air it out later in the game. Arkansas should get well over 100 yards against the Tide's Rushing defense.... expect between 100-150 yards as they'll break a long one eventually. But the air game? They might hit one big play the whole game... but I expect less than 100 yards of air-hogs Saturday. Without Matt Jones as the QB, they are hurting bigtime. Ask Bama what happens when you lose your #1 QB. It really does hurt.
So on Bama's offense, I believe we'll get some pretty good open looks. Shula will air it out at times and try to hit the long ball. With Bama's speed and quickness, we should be able to wrap this game up in the 3rd quarter, but don't be surprised to see this Arkansas team hang in there till the 2nd half. The things is, is that Nutt's teams don't EVER give up, so we'll have to contain them till the end. Shula obviously wouldn't mind running it up a little after what happened last year when the game was already determined.... so we'll see what happens.
So forget Southern Cal - this game starts at 0-0, and it's anyone's game. Period. Southern Cal is in a league of their own... but the loss to Vandy speaks more volumes. Either Vandy is THAT good, or Arkansas is that bad, and we won't know much till we play the Hogs ourselves, or until Vandy plays a good team. So here's to Bama whipping the Hogs Saturday in a sammich game between Spurrier and Florida... and Tide ain't looking to next week just yet. They KNOW they have unfinished business at hand.... A win here, and Bama goes to 4-0, the first time since 1996. Wow - has it been THAT long???? Sheesh. So Roll Tide.... the pigs will get grilled on this one.
PREDICTION: BAMA 33 - ARKANSAS 10
ACTUAL SCORE: BAMA 24 - ARKANSAS 13 (BAMADOG 3-1)
Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: A win's a win. Wasn't pretty at times, but we came alive yet again in the 2nd half to put the game away. Bama's now 4-0 for the first time since 1996... we'll see if we're really for real come next weekend.
#24 BAMA vs SOUTH CAROLINA PREDICTION
At the beginning of the season, I said Bama would win all of their games in the regular season because of our powerful defense and the return of Croyle/Darby/Castille, along with the emergence of our WR's. I still think this is reachable, but it will be tough because the biggest factor in all that was the OL, and the backup RBs. Well, so far, the OL hasn't been impressive, and we're down 2 more running backs along with Upchurch and Sharrif. All are true freshmen. Who do we turn to if something happens to Darby? Well, that would be Tim Castille who is still probably between 90-100%. I think he's close to 100% now though, because he's been running in 2 games now, and gotten the jitters out... he's gotten hit and knows what he can do. So we could be in serious trouble should Darby go down. Of course, we're still one play away from Croyle sitting on the sidelines as well, so I guess you never know.
So we head into USC this weekend with all the starters on the team doing well. Backups are the problem... so pray for no injuries. Brodie has shown some very nice touch on the ball lately, but has thrown some errant passes in both games... big MO-swingers. He's still learning even in his 5th year at the Capstone. But with S. Carolina, it will be tough. They have a fly-by-night defense. They don't get set a lot of times... they move around a lot, and they really caused problems against Georgia, who by some are favored to win the SEC East. I honestly don't think UGA is THAT good just yet with Shockley in there, but that's another subject.
So it's Brodie vs USC defense - something I believe Bama's offense will do well against at times. What this game really comes down to is the USC offense vs the Bama defense. Spurrier's team is in the bottom 1% of the NCAA in rushing offense. A paltry 30-something yards per game I believe. So you know they're going to throw the ball - and throw it deep, too. Against our corners, we are still suspect to the deep ball. It happened on 2 long pass plays for TDs against USM. Madison got burned on one because he overshot the ball... and Castille just got burned, period. Hopefully, they can work on that in practice this week... the safeties are going to be busy in this game, and that means a lot of opportunity for picks from Peprah and Harper. I look for them to step in front of the passes Saturday and get an interception - at least 1 or 2. But Spurrier knows what he's doing.... so he'll have a gameplan setup just for Bama - probably a lot of short stuff as well. He has a knack of hitting those slant routes a LOT, so our LBs will have to be ready to make some serious hits across the middle.
So here's Spurrier, the ex-king of college football going against newcomer (more or less, really) Mike Shula. It's going to be a close game as the spread dictates (Bama only by 2.5), but if DuBose can beat Spurrier twice in one season, then Shula can win once.....hopefully. Plus, Spurrier doesn't even have his top guns from Florida - these are mostly Lou's players. But Spurrier is doing what he can with what he has, and he still nearly pulled off the upset on the road against UGA Saturday. The only difference in the game was USC had missed a PAT earlier in the game which forced the gamecocks to go for 2 later in the game, which they missed... and lost by 2. So now with USC at home in Columbia, the crowd will be in it, and it will be loud. It's Bama's first road game of the year in a very hostile stadium. Those fans don't look to lose, and Bama in my mind, is hoping not to lose too... they're not thinking "we're going to beat them"... they're thinking USC is better because of their coach. Let's hope that really isn't the case, because if you think you have lost before the game starts, then you're already losing the mental battle.
So both teams come out strong, but with Bama getting burned by the deep ball at least once. They have to keep their heads up though. Remember, Bama's better than UGA... so if they can do it, we can too... it's the crowd that could be the difference. Now, Spurrier has some trouble getting the running game going, but Bama misses some tackles and USC has a decent game against us, but still under 100 total yards on the ground. In the air, We get a little toasted... probably between 250-300 yards. But the score is what matters, and with our experience Defense, I believe we can pull it out... but what will the offense do? They'll have some success, but this game is going to be close. Incredibly close. Down to the last drive of the game, close. I honestly flip-flop back and forth on who will win this one because USC is very capable of pulling the minor upset... Though Bama is the stronger team, USC has the home-field advantage, and Bama's beat up a little... we end up having some mental lapses and don't quite recover enough to win the game. We've been playing with fire, and now Bama gets a little burned in a nail-biter. There goes my 11-0 prediction unless I'm dead wrong, which I hope I am... but USC pulls one out of their butt by their chinny-chin-chin.... and Spurrier gets his first SEC win for 2005 while Bama hiccups to 2-1 on the year.... Everything in the statbook shows Bama winning this game.... my gut tells me the crowd gets to some of the young Tide players and they get out of focus on some big plays against them...those aren't in the stat books unfortunately. Bama - PROVE ME WRONG!
PREDICTION: BAMA 20 - SOUTH CAROLINA 23
ACTUAL SCORE: BAMA 37 - SOUTH CAROLINA 14 (BAMADOG 2-1)
Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: I'll be the first to admit when I'm wrong, and Bama played about a complete a game as one could want. They put the crowd out of the game early, and the defense just kept pounding them the whole day. Forcing them into an air-only attack also helped... so I'm 1000% glad that I was wrong cuz now the Tide is 3-0 with the Hogs coming to Town, and I really feel better about my 11-0 prediction to start the season.... Great game, Tide!
#22 BAMA vs SOUTHERN MISS. PREDICTION
USM's Bower and company come marching into T-town this weekend after being shipped up to Memphis due to Hurrican Katrina shutting down Hattiesburg for some time. I'm sure it's been tough for them, but don't look for them to lie down Saturday. It'll be the same scrappy team we always see show up in Tuscaloosa each and every year.
Last weekend, Bama shook off the rust, and they really want to come out strong this weekend and start in Q1 to try and get S. Miss back on their toes. I think that may happen as the offense knows what they are capable of, and the defense, well, you know about those guys. They'll keep you in a game, period. But Darby looks good, Brodie looks like he's back to his old self starting in the 2nd half last week.. and Castille just punches the ball in the endzone when KD decides to go down at the 2. LOL USM will be good, but will be overmatched. We'll have our #1 QB and so will they... but the difference is really in the defense. USM won't compare as most teams won't compare to ours this season. I look for USM to get the ball out quickly and it'll be tough for our DL to get sacks... so it'll be up to the LBs and 2ndary to really make a lot of plays Saturday. The most important thing is to shut down the running game, and I believe Bama will do that. Roach will hopefully be able to take some snaps, and if not, we'll have a capable backup, just like last week.
On offense, I look for Bama to have another game of trying to establish the run - but I believe again, it will be the passing game that flourishes. The problem is that we don't have a lot of experience behind Darby... so while Coffee and Johns get some yards for us, they won't be up to KD standards. So I definitely look for Brodie to air it out a little more and have another decent afternoon in the 200-300 yrd range. I believe Bama will have a 100-yd rusher, but will still spread the wealth to the WRs. Since we don't really have a go-to guy, we'll just dish it to whoever's open.
So with all that in mind, it makes this week's game easy to predict. No game is EVER a gimmie, but given our defense and an offense that has some serious potential just waiting to erupt, I'll take those odds. The only time it'll be close is at 0-0.... Sothern Miss will try and mke a game out of it, but unless they have changed their offense to strictly Nebraska option, they're in trouble. This is the last game between USM and Bama for a while... I don't see Bama falling over on this day..... no way, no how. The seniors will make sure of that.... ROLL TIDE!
PREDICTION: BAMA 34 - SOUTHERN MISS 10
ACTUAL SCORE: BAMA 30 - SOUTHERN MISS 21 (BAMADOG 2-0)
Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: Wow - who'da thunk we'd be down at the half and the running game wouldn't work for us?? But this looks like a 2nd-half team... good thing, cuz we needed every bit of it. A win is a win... Way to go, Bama!
#24 BAMA vs M.T.S.U. PREDICTION
The first game of the season is finally here and it's time to figure out who's going to win what games and by how much. As you all know, in my prediction for 2005, I have Bama winning every game this year. I still stand by that prediction as long as one thing stands true - injuries must be limited, especially at QB and RB. The OL has come together this fall camp, so I feel a little better going into the season opener. But if Brodie stays healthy (doesn't EVERY sentence start like that??), and with the defense Bama has (potentially a #1 Defense)... I don't see how we could lose unless we just break down and give up. We may have some close games, but in the end, I believe Shula will finally have some marquee wins under his belt and also lift his 10-15 record to over the .500 mark and also get Bama back into the SEC Championship Game.
So MTSU comes to T-town will all kinds of ideas about pulling a huge road upset against 22-pt favorite Alabama. The fact is, is that Alabama is just the better football team. Better offense is expected this year, and even against some of the better offenses last year, the Bama D put up some serious numbers nationally. I don't expect MTSU to really pose a huge threat at game's end. Initially, the adrenaline will be pumping, and MTSU might actually lead momentarily, but as the game wears on, Bama will pull out front (if they even happen to trail), and not relenquish the lead.
I believe there will be some big hits in this game... mostly by our defensive guys. Roach and Ryans are going to pound their RBs and Bama's DB's will definitely pick off a pass or two. I expect the no-huddle MTSU uses to pose some minor problems at the get-go, but as the game goes on, Bama will adjust and make corrections to shut them down. The last time Bama played, the Tide pulled out the victory 39-34, thanks to a heads-up play by Roach, who returned an int for a TD to put the game away. This year, MTSU thinks they can repeat that performance and come out of Bryant-Denny with a win. Won't happen. Bama is a much better defensive team... and a much better offensive team. I don't really think MTSU will get 20 points, and I believe Bama will. That calculates into a win any way you slice it.
One of the big questions for the opener is the status of Sophomore kicker Jamie Christiansen. It has been brought up and he may not play due to breaking team rules or something of that nature. I don't look for this to be a huge problem, but if it happens, we'll miss his booming kickoffs. He is currently the #1 placekicker for the Tide. Aul will punt for the Tide Saturday. And as usual Prothro will return punts/kickoffs along side another WR on kickoffs.
So look for the game to start out pretty quick. I don't think Bama will start off the game slow at all.... I think we strike quickly and often. Then we start to chill out for a while before we finish strong in the 3rd quarter and get JP in the game at QB. That's the hope - that's the dream, cuz we know Brodie won't last forever. :) So the D shuts down MTSU, but does get snake-bit once or twice. We're not perfect yet by no means. We'll give up points, but not enough to lose the game. Here's to another great start of the season... but let's still not look ahead to Southern Miss just yet. Let's take care of business first. Bama with the win, solid in most phases of the game, and backups finally play in the 4th quarter... but I don't see us beating the spread unless Shula just decides to run it up late...
PREDICTION: BAMA 31 - M.T.S.U. 13
ACTUAL SCORE: BAMA 26 - M.S.T.U. 7 (BAMADOG 1-0)
Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: Not too far off actually. I figured the D would give up 2 big plays, but apparently, we're pretty solid in the first game on D. The O made adjustments in 2nd half to put it away.
|
