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BAMADOG'S PRESEASON OUTLOOK
- 2005 SEASON -
Man, can you believe it's almost time for the college football season?? SEC Media days are over and we saw a few new faces this year in the conference gathering... and those that actually showed up this year (that's right - you, Fat Phil). The new faces include Steve Spurrier at USC, Urban Meyer at Florida, Les Miles at LSU, and Ed Orgeron at Ole Miss. It should make for an interesting year for sure. Lots of questions in each division.....
 | 1. Can Alabama keep its backfield healthy for an entire season? Will the defense be even better with 10 starters returning? Will the OL keep the Tide from running the table? How can Bama be picked to finish 3rd in the West??
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 | 2. Will Auburn flop, or will Tubby's "We are the champions" speech at SEC Media days hold true? Four 1st round draft picks gone - I say FLOP. You don't just get 1st-round NFL ability overnight... too many publications are basing this year on last year's performance. That's history.
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 | 3. How will Ole Miss do with the new coach... no Eli, and they didn't do anything last year either. Another mediocre year, but only a slight chance of making it to Shreveport.
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 | 4. Houston Nutt went 5-6 last year - first time to not go bowling in a long time... with Matt Jones gone, is it even thinkable for them to win the West? Naw man. It won't happen. They'll be lucky to have a winning season this year.
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 | 5. LSU is stockpiled with talent - how will Miles use it to win the SEC West? Is LSU the team to beat in the West? Can Miles really make a difference in Baton Rouge? We shall see.
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 | 6. Miss. St. is just there. Can they possibly rebound and even have a winning season? Doubtful, but they will go down trying. Croom can feel his buns getting warm already - I give him one more year of less than sub-mediocrity coaching before he's out of Starkville.
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 | 7. Urban Meyer - are you related to Oscar? Also, Leak could be SEC player of the year if he plays to his potential. Will Meyer beat Spurrier in each's debut with their new team? That should be a classic to watch.
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 | 8. Orange is ugly and so are UT's uniforms. Do they have enough in the gas tank to win the East, must less the SEC? Possibly... in any case, I just hate Tennessee. Bunch of punks.
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 | 9. Georgia has no David Greene anymore... now it's Shockley's time to, um... shine? How long till Shockley is replaced? Shouldn't be long... the shine won't last before they're prepping the 2006 QB.
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 | 10. Can Kentucky possibly wait 3 more months until basketball starts? Football is just a time-killer for those people. It's called a pigskin, people.... and it's not played on the hardwood.
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 | 11. Spurrier is back. Will he turn the cocks into a championship team his first year? How will he do against Fat Phil's UT Vols? Could get interesting, but I don't foresee an SEC East title just yet. Spurrier still needs to get HIS recruits.
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 | 12. Last, but not Lea.... wait, I mean, Last AND Least, Vandy. At least you have smart football players... and one of the better QB's in the league in Jay Cutler. Too bad he can't play for a winning program. Will they have a winning season for the first time since 1982? Not in the SEC East they won't. |
Those are some questions you can ask each team this season. I could go into more depth, but I have better things to do, right? I'll have my SEC Final Standing prediction at the end of this Bama analysis, aight?
So back to ALABAMA. If we can remain healthy this year, look for Bama to have a SUPER season. No bones about it - THIS is the year for Alabama football. As we all know, defense wins championships... and I can tell you right now that Alabama will have the best defense in the country this season barring significant injuries. Bama was #1/#2 last year and with only one loss at LB (Wortham), we should be ok as we had a good LB rotation last year so the backups have plenty of experience and reps. It's looking good. Throw in the mix that we'll actually be able to score with a healthy Brodie, and you have the making of an incredible season. If there was ever a year to match 1992's D, this is it... and that's no joke. Look for Bama to roll early and often. Mike Shula and Les Miles actually have the best chance to pull out the West. Auburn has just lost too many good people... they'll definitely lose some games this year - including Alabama. Let's take a look at each area of the team....
OFFENSE
QB: Bama's in the same situation this year as we were last year. We have an awesome starter and nothing to back him up - at least, not that we can see just yet. We have 3 excellent recruits in Jimmy Johns, Jimmy Barnes, and John Parker Wilson. Of course, Wilson was able to take part in Spring Drills since grayshirting last season. He did pretty well, but is by no means ready to handle the reins of a team in the SEC. He could get thrown into the fire early if Brodie takes a dive again, which I hope doesn't happen. Guillon is still there, but after spring practice, he injured his back yet again and finds himself at #3 on the depth chart anyway.... so a true freshman will likely take that #3 spot. Let's hope that our backups get plenty of work this season - but ONLY after the game has been put away by the Tide by the 3rd quarter. And when the backups go in, don't expect a lot of handoffs unless we're late in the 4th. Those guys need serious experience. But for now, Brodie is everything we need. He'll give Leak a run for the money, that's for sure. And with the WR's Bama has, he could easily break the single-season passing record at Alabama. I like what we have, but if history is any indication, we could be in trouble again. He is the bionic man now, and the only thing left to break is his arm(s). We need experience to build with the new freshmen to really boost this position. If he stays healthy, Brodie will be Bama's offensive player of the year. GRADE: B+
RB/FB: At RB, Bama is lucky to have Ken Darby back in the lineup. He has had hip surgery and appears to be 100% for the start of the season. That's good news for Bamafans because his speed and juke moves will separate him from the other backs in the league. This guy just knows how to make people miss. He can stop on a dime - it's crazy. Darby will split time with Aaron Johns at the get-go, but I really look forward to seeing a freshman or two step up to the plate, because we could need them yet again like last year. Roy Upchurch will probably be that guy, but Sharrief and Coffee will fight to get that 2nd spot probably. Johns could very well be replaced by one of these guys if he doesn't produce... and last year, he was average at best. Then there's Tim Castille who is officially the 2nd string TB... I'm not sure how much action he'll see at this position, but I DO look forward to seeing the JUMBO package again this year with Tim and Le'Ron lining it up in the backfield to get that 1 yard for a first down or score. So overall, Bama has finally built up some good depth, but they are YOUNG and INEXPERIENCED. With plenty of reps this fall, I look for this position to be a strong point for the offense. Surely we can find one guy to carry the load should Darby go down.... I think we'll be ok.... these guys are that good. At FB, if Castille doesn't start, LeRon McClain will get the knod. Either can play, but Castille is definitely more versitile and more dangerous catching passes out of the backfield. We'll be ok there too. GRADE: A-
WR/TE: Bama is STOCKPILED with some serious talent at the WR/TE position for the next 3 seasons. Wow. Next year (2006) will be Un-freakin'-believable when we have Prothro as a Sr, last year's freshmen will be Jr's, and we'll also have Nikita Stover who was ranked one of THE top WR's a year ago coming out of high school. Unfortunately, he didn't qualify originally, but now he'll be back... we won't lose any WR's after this season. Talk about depth AND experience - no shortage here. Prothro is the main guy in this group. He's got sure-fire hands and moves like Darby in the open field. The only thing he lacks is height... that's where Keith Brown, D.J. Hall, Matt Caddell and Ezekial Knight come in. Caddell actually made a good name for himself last year, but Brown and Hall look to be the WR's of Bama's future with their height and speed on the outside. Bama could really, really wear out the DBs if we sub in WR's on a regular basis... no depth at DB for opposing teams could mean big points for the Tide. Look for Shula and the Tide to exploit that all year. We have the guns to do it finally.... so it's going to happen. We finally have some WR's over 5'10". Ain't it great?? GRADE: A
At TE, Bama's got some seldom-used talent, but very good talent nonetheless. Nick Walker, Trent Davidson, and Greg McLain head up this group and newbies Charles Hoke and Travis McCall might get playing time if they are THAT good... if not, look for redshirts on those guys. Bama actually wanted to throw to the TE's last year, and we did with good success - at least when Brodie was healthy. Johnston was an excellent pass-catcher at TE and the Bama staff hopes to find that go-to guy at TE that can bail out the QB and get some big yards. This could be a serious weapon for the Tide (See NFL stars Tony Gonzalez, Shannon Sharpe, Jay Novacek, Brent Jones, etc...) so hopefully we'll utilize this position more. We did try to throw to the TE last year after Brodie got hurt, but either they weren't open or the QB didn't see them. This year has to be different - it just does. But with little experience, this is a big question mark at this point.
UPDATE 8/05: Trent Davidson is now out of the rotation for at least 3-4 weeks into the season. That won't help us here, so look for one of the freshmen to possibly get some early playing time. Let's hope this is all the injury bug does to the Tide in the upcoming weeks...GRADE: B-
OL: This is one of Bama's biggest concerns this season. The big horses up front. J.B. Closner is the anchor for this group at Center. Everyone else just falls in line. Hopefully, they'll bond early and become a force as each game progresses. There is practically no experience here and that could really hurt us (or Brodie). Projected starters at this point are Capps, Caldwell, Closner, Sanders, and Tatum. Tatum had some snaps last year after moving over from the defense, so he's probably our #2 guy. But overall, we need a LOT of snaps. Spring ball really helped these guys, and the 4 weeks leading up to the first game won't hurt either. For Bama to lead the SEC in rushing, and for Darby to really show off his stuff, these guys have to make it happen because it ALL STARTS HERE. You have to block and you have to give pass protection. If something breaks down, Brodie could be in a heap of mess, knowutimean? There's a good chance one of the backups will overtake some of these guys... no one is safe. Cody Davis, Taylor Britt, Justin Moon are 3 guys that'll be looking to get into the mix. That's good, because we need some competition here to make our OL better. Bama's season almost solely rests on the shoulder of these guys.... it concerns me, but I think the unit will pull together and be a force. But right now, it's hard to tell. GRADE: C
DEFENSE (aka THE CRIMSON MACHINE)
THE CRIMSON MACHINE: This unit of the University of Alabama football team plays as ONE, so they will be named as such.....Anyway, Bama's 2ndary will be the best in the country. This group was the best last year and I don't look for any letdowns this year as they are all that much better. We have 3 seniors (Charlie Peprah, Roman Harper, Anthony Madison) and one guy (Ramzee Robinson) that will start and possibly leave for the NFL next year. This will be the strength of the team by far. And with these great cover guys, that'll give our DL that much more time to get to the QB. They all go hand-in-hand. Then we have the LB's who have played a ton of snaps and are some of the best in the conference in Freddie Roach, DeMeco Ryans, and Juwan Simpson (formerly Juwan Garth). Again, SENIORity will go far here with Roach and Ryans. On the DL, even more seniors to anchor the line in Rudy Griffin and Mark Anderson. Anderson just had surgery, but is hopeful to start the season opener. Then throw in probably the BEST of the group who is a sophomore - Wallace Gillbury - and then Jeremy Clark who is solid, and you now have an ELITE FIGHTING MACHINE on DEFENSE. Copeland, Curry, Teague, London, Oden, Shade, Donnelly, Johnson, Jefferies, Hall - you guys better watch out because this defense if FOR REAL, dude. For REAL. SEVEN of ELEVEN projected starters are seniors. And Ramzee/Wallace play like Seniors. Wow - I'm just totally stunned at how good we "should" be on defense this year. Talk about defensive dream team - this is it. And with defenses winning championships, Bama will be in the hunt, that's for sure. Any resemblance of an offense last year, and Bama walks into the Iron Bowl undefeated - they carried this team and kept us in games (see S. Carolina, Arkansas, Auburn, UT...). If we had only had a QB to get a few more points on the board... this year we do (knock on wood), and with that combination, well... oh my. Opposing teams' offenses better watch out. It could get ugly, people. As for backups, we have it. Dominic Lee, Justin Britt, and Chris Harris all got plenty of snaps last year... this year will be no different. We'll definitely see some new faces on the DL, but probably not until around the 3rd or 4th game. We might even see some true freshmen play here - Greenwood, Fanney, and Washington could be nominated here to forgo a redshirt season. DL is solid. Depth at LB isn't bad, but not great either. Our starting three are unbelieveable... backups are Demarcus Waldrop (who will see plenty of snaps), Juke King, Marcel Stamps, and Terrence Jones. Pretty solid group overall... these backups will be starting next year, so they'll play quite a bit. That leaves backups for the 2ndary. Guys that we'll definitly see added to the dime coverage will be Simeon Castille and Lionel Mitchell. We'll also see some of Jeff Dukes, Marcus Carter, and possibly Eric Gray. They better learn what they can this year because they won't see a 2ndary this good at Bama for a long time. Roman Harper will be Alabama's defensive player of the year. GRADE: A+
SPECIAL TEAMS
Kickoff/punt returns: Prothro, Prothro, Prothro. Just get the ball to Prothro and enjoy the show. He's so exciting to watch on kickoffs, and you know that at any given time, he could take one to the house. He's very ellusive, quick, and can make you miss very easily. And he's got good hands on punt returns (Brandon, you had your chance, buddy). Beside Prothro on kickoff returns will either be Brooks, Hall, or Caddell. Also, Prothro will be the Special teams player of the year with Brian Bostick gone. GRADE: A
PK/punter: Wow - what a difference a year makes. We went from having a solid kicker and punter to having nearly nothing. Both jobs are up in the air, but Schatz probably has the edge over Aul right now... neither really impressed in Spring Drills on a consistent basis. At PK, I'm guessing either Jamie Christiansen or some other lucky contestant. I think Shula got a freshman to walk-on this year and place kick. We'll see what happens. As it was 2 years ago, this should be a real soap opera of a position. Each week, we'll just hold tryouts. Kick the best, and you'll kick this week. Ouch - we could really use a solid guy here since PK's usually lead the team in scoring... that's too many points we could lose...... and possibly cost us games. Don't get me started here - just find a guy that can make FG's. It's not an option, it's mandatory, aight? Points are not optional, so why would you settle for 2nd-best at such a crucial position? Last, our kickoff specialist will be Jamie Christiansen again. He really boomed kickoffs last year and became a crowd favorite. We haven't seen that many kickoffs go into the endzone since "Wild Thing" William Watts was the kicker. Jamie is only a sophomore, so I'm thinking if he can get his accuracy downpat, he could be a serious threat at kicking FG's. He's got the power - let's see what else he has.... nothing proven yet though. GRADE: D
Snapper/Holder: It's up for grabs... I believe Drew Lane will be the snapper though.... we could have the punter hold or even a QB - we'll have a guy that can do it.... so I'm not too worried about it. The coaches know it's important and the players know you can't screw this up. I'm more worried about the PK. GRADE: B
COACHING
The great thing about our coaching staff is that they know how to get some serious talent at the Capstone. Even though these last 3 classes prior to this year have been depleted, we have made the best of it and gotten the best and brightest out there. We have a lot of seniors, so the true test will be in the next 3 years as those scholarship-stifened classes show what they've got. But for now, Shula and the coaching staff are getting the players they need in order to compete for SEC/National championships. It's just a matter of time until the Tide is back on top and playing in the BCS once again. And as a unit, they are still together. The only change came last year as Kent Johnston took over as the new Strength and Conditioning coach. Everyone else is still here though I'm sure people have really questioned Dave Rader at times. But hey - they're working with what they have, and so far, they haven't done great, but not too bad either - considering the circumstances/injuries and the mere scholarship numbers. Kines is doing a great job on defense - he has the guys swarming around the ball and making plays left and right. They are a serious force to be reckoned with this year. Add in the EXCELLENT recruiting skills of all the coaches, especially Charlie Harbison, Bob Connelly, and Chris Ball, and you have a coaching staff that is on the same page with each other and the kids. EVERY single recruit that is recruited by Harbison, LOVES HIM. The guy is a mastermind in getting guys to come to the University of Alabama. We're lucky to have him. On the field, they seem to be working as a cohesive unit as well. Bama didn't have many delay of game calls last season, and that's a credit to the little things this coaching staff teaches. Shula knows the importance of the play clock, having played QB at Bama... and he knows what Brodie is going through in the pocket. Not a lot of coaches can say that. But the QB is the main guy on the field - you get him to play well, and your team usually plays well. Hopefully, this staff can get more wins and come out on the positive end of a 3-yr record. Right now, they are 10-15, hardly anything to write home about, but considering probation and more importantly the injuries Bama had last year at QB/RB/FB, it's no wonder we only went 6-5. Now we have that same defense that'll be that much better, and an offense that has healed - Wow - I'm excited just thinking about it. Let's turn it around this year guys. No one wants to lose, and it's time to make that happen. I want to see all W's this season. That's all. With this kind of talent, I don't see how you couldn't win 10 games easily. GRADE: B+
Looking ahead, I see Bama getting wins against MTSU, USM, S.Carolina, Arkansas, Florida, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Utah St, Miss St, and Auburn. The only hiccup in my opinion will be LSU, and that's still iffy. Bama could easily run the table as CRAZY as that might seem. But remember last season how our defense kept games so VERY CLOSE only to BARELY lose the game due to lack of offense. If we get that offense this season with Brodie, and then our D plays like last year or better, the sky is the limit for this team. Even UF must watch out. No one is safe going up against THE CRIMSON MACHINE, baby. They are THAT GOOD. Look for Bama to be in the SECC Game... here's my bold prediction on how it will pan out:
EAST
Tennessee
Florida
S. Carolina
Georgia
Kentucky
Vanderbilt
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WEST
Alabama
LSU
Auburn
Arkansas
Ole Miss
Miss St.
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SEC CHAMPIONSHIP
- ALABAMA -
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Keep in mind that I keep a VERY open mind and try not to include bias into my predictions (as everyone already well knows that).... Bama has what it takes to run the SEC table, period. No other team has the leadership Bama has. No other team has the defense that Bama has. No other team has an offense, except for UF and LSU, like Alabama. Special teams could end up kicking us in the butt, but I'm hoping we have enough of everything else to counteract that deficiency. Bama's the SEC Champion, and headed back to the BCS & possibly the national championship in the Rose Bowl. How sweet it would be..... We just have to hope that USC & Louisville lose... they have the easiest track to the title game this year... no losses could mean another SEC team left out in the cold even though UL has a cupcake of a schedule.
In the upcoming weeks leading up to the first game, come back and check out my take on fall practice - see who's hot and who's not. Who will be a star for the Tide this year - who will be that playmaker we really need on offense? Which WR will be the #2 guy behind Prothro? And what will the score be in Bama's first game against MTSU...? Stay tuned, and ROLL TIDE!!
Your Host.....
The Bamadog
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