BAMA vs OKLAHOMA STATE PREDICTION

I have been on the go for a couple of weeks now, and I'm finally settled back in my house in Dallas, TX. And due to all the driving I have been doing lately, I'm going to check out the game on the tube instead of driving to Shreveport tomorrow.

So looking at this game in Shula's pre-firing, I would have said we would lose.... but with the absence of Shula in the head coaching slot and calling the plays, I actually feel more confident in the team's preparation and execution during the game. Throw in the fact that Kines will have a month to prepare the defense for this spread option offense (see Florida) and I have a good feeling about tomorrow's outcome. Last year, Kines put together a work of art in stopping the best offense in the country, Texas Tech, in the Cotton Bowl. The best offense in the country was held to 10 points. This year, OSU has a good offense as well, but they do it more like the University of Florida, which we actually did a good job of stopping.

So with that being said, and also the fact that Rader will be calling all the plays for the Bowl game, I think Bama's going to surprise a lot of people. People jump on Rader because he's the OC - yet people don't understand that he's a small percentage of the offense. Remember - it was Shula's offense and Shula making the play calls. Rader is an offensive nut... so when you see Bama scoring in this game, you'll know why - Rader's actually getting to do his job. AND, if he doesn't get the job done, well, I guess he can start looking for another job. But from what I can tell, these Seniors won't be going out with a losing record. Both Bama and OSU don't want to end the season being the loser, but Bama will just have too much on defense and definitely will have enough in the offensive arsenal to put OSU away. Plus, everyone is healthy and eligible to play this year. Look out, OSU. Bama's going to bring out the entire playbook and then some. We'll finally see stuff we haven't seen all year... and I can't wait. ROLL TIDE!

PREDICTION:      BAMA 27 - OKLAHOMA STATE 20
ACTUAL SCORE:  BAMA 31 - OKLAHOMA STATE 34     (BAMADOG 10-3)

Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: Ok, call it wishful thinking I guess. As soon as the game kicked off, before a play was even run, I wanted to make it 20-27 OSU, but I couldn't. They showed some guts, but it came down to stopping the run which we failed to do. OSU deserved to win. If we had won that game, we would have felt like Arkansas when they beat us this year... and undeserved win.

BAMA vs #15 AUBURN PREDICTION

Well, the 12th and final game of the year is upon us and man, it went by quick. Seems like the season just started and we all thought we were going to end up 7-5 at the worst. It ends up, that could still happen, but only if we can win against the team who has beaten us the last 4 years. Bama has also never beaten Auburn in Bryant-Denny. That trend MUST stop come Saturday. There's just no excuses for losing to Auburn at home yet again. I'm sick of hearing about the thumb. I'm sick of hearing how EVERY year lately, we have lost to those Redneck lame-o's. It makes me sick.

Looking at the game, it's anyone's win really. AU lost last week to Georgia after UGA lost to both Vandy AND Kentucky. Go figure. Then we lose to MSU and LSU and have lost the last 3 of 4. It could be the last 4 of 5 if we don't win against Auburn. Not exactly the kind of output you expect from ALA-FREAKING-BAMA, people. This program is NOT accustomed to losing, not even in the bad years. And even though this was supposedly a rebuilding year, there's still NO excuse for how this team has played this season. But with it being Iron Bowl time, you can throw away the statbook. Just like any other year - throw it out. Bama has a lot ot prove if we want to go to a bowl game - a lot rides on this game - even the possibility of going to a bowl period. Being 6-6 and losing your last 4 of 5 games doesn't really spell "We want Bama because they deserve it". Instead, it tells the bowls that we're just getting worse and we're not going to do anything to improve.

So come Saturday, look for a huge dogfight from both teams. And right now, Auburn probably still has the upper hand. They have not had to go thru years of scholarship reductions, and honestly, their coaching staff knows how to adjust and win games. Ours just seems to be looking around for answers lying on the ground somewhere. We also don't have the capacity to learn how to stop the run again after being so dominant last season. It's insane how you can go from one extreme to the other with the same coaching staff. I know we have speed this year, but last year might have been faster and we still stuck with the 4-3 Defensive alignment. That's what's so puzzling.

Now for the all-important prediction part. We're playing at home against a team that has beaten us 4 years in a row. We're playing a team that lost last week and doesn't want to lose again, and rarely loses 2 in a row. Bama on the other hand seems accustomed to losing and still hasn't proven that they can beat anyone remotely big this year. The biggest team we have beaten all year is Hawaii. Lowly Miss St beat us, probably because we weren't up for the game. But for the Iron Bowl, Bama WILL be up. The seniors have never beaten Auburn. What a sour taste that would be to never have beaten your most bitter rival. I'm still not sure that will be enough. Bama's D is getting worse and yet Bama's offense seems to still be stuck in a time warp - we are still having trouble scoring in the redzone. Scoring 2 TDs against LSU is enough to give us hope, but let's face it - we're not doing it on a regular basis. So based on history, based on this year, based on what have seen happen from game to game, and based on the fact that we are steadily declining, a Bama win is possible, but not likely. If Bama plays a perfect game, we will win. Anything less will be a loss. Unfortunately, we will shoot ourselves in the foot one too many times Saturday, and the thumb we all grow to hate will now becomes a freaking fist. OUCH. Bama, ya gotta stop this thing from going out of control - MAN UP and beat Auburn Saturday. Shula's already on the hot seat... a loss here will really heat things up for next season.

PREDICTION:      BAMA 13 - THE BARN 20
ACTUAL SCORE:  BAMA 15 - AUBURN 22     (BAMADOG 10-2)

Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: Well, like I said - another game, another shot in the foot. 2 Fumbles via the right side of the OL was the turning point in the game. With decent blocking, Bama ends the stupid freaking streak - instead, it's 5-in-a-row against the Tide. The HOT SEAT Shula is already sitting on is on fire right now... and now 0-19 when trailing in the game. That just shows me that you don't know how to win games and you NEVER (yes, NEVER) have come from behind to win a game. Lame.

BAMA vs #12 L.S.U. PREDICTION

This week doesn't really offer much as far as encouragement for this Alabama football team. We just lost one of the worst games of the Shula era and now we have to hit the road and play one of the best teams in the SEC. It doesn't look good for Bama who has had offensive struggles all season long. Throw in the fact that LSU is at or near the top of almost every defensive category including #1 in sacks, and Bama better get ready for a beating. The only chance Bama has is if LSU has a letdown after the huge comeback win over UT and knowing Bama just lost to the SEC West cellar dweller Mississippi State. They could think we are going to be a pushover, and it very well could be. But this week, again, we get to see how the team will respond. And don't get me wrong - this Bama teams IS DOWN right now. It's a loss that will hurt for a long time. But what can make all things better?? A win in Baton Rouge.

What to look for? Look for LSU to stack the line of scrimmage and bring the heat for most of the game. They lead the league in sacks, and if last year is any indication of what could happen this year, JPW will be running for his life. Our ONLY retaliation? Keith Brown has to be at 100%. Everything, AND I MEAN EVERYTHING, is dependent upon that. With no real 2nd/3rd WR besides DJ Hall to catch the ball, we're tapped out. Shula will continue to TRY to run the ball up the middle with Darby, but it won't work. Even though Johns is a between-the-tackles type of runner, he won't get anywhere elther, his ankle permitting. It's just going to be a rough day. I can honestly see Bama not scoring a point in this one though I also can't see us getting shut out. That just hasn't happened since Southern Miss in 2000, 21-0. In 2003, #3 LSU allowed Bama 3 points in that game. Throw in the red zone flop-ense Bama tries to execute and you have the makeup of a shutout. But being on the road, and given the nature of the situation, Shula needs to get points, even if it's a FG to end the half. Getting NO points is the worst thing you can do. If it's 3rd and Goal and you can't get in, you kick a FG on 4th down. The team should realize that if you can't get in on 3rd and goal on the 1 yard line - why the heck should be do the same thing on 4th down and not get points? Prove to the coach you can get in before you tell him to go for it.

So anyway, look for more of the same Saturday. It doesn't look good with Brown not at 100%. Bama's BEST game will still likely not be enough to beat the Bayou Bengals. Even though LSU turned the ball over 4 times to UT last week, they still have enough composure and leadership to come back and win the game. That just shows you what kind of team and coaching staff LSU has right now. We have a great bond on our team - it's just not gelling come gametime unfortunately... and too bad for us Bamafans that we will have another grueling week staring down the barrel of a shotgun. Dang this sucks like a ho, people. Something's gotta give this week in practice. It's time to MAN UP and leave it on the field. None of this CLOSE bullcrap. Every team has young guys, and a lot of teams have new coaches that are doing far better than Alabama with lesser talent. Something has to change, and this is as good a week as any - else going bowling might not be in Bama's cards with a 3-game skid to end the season. We have to do better. Tune in Saturday night to find out. My guess is that we'll just be overmatched and keep making the same stupid mistakes we've made all year and have failed to correct. Here's to hoping I'm way off... but they haven't proved that fact wrong yet. Don't let the score fool you... they only score a lot because the defense will be on the field for most of the game.... and yeah, they'll be tired. I don't know what else to say except, BEAT THOSE TIGERS! ROLL TIDE! GEAUX BAMA!

PREDICTION:      BAMA 6 - LSU 30
ACTUAL SCORE:  BAMA 14 - LSU 28     (BAMADOG 9-2)

Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: Another relatively close prediction. I'm proud of how the offense is moving the ball, but with no running game, Bama's offense isn't really complete and it showed tonight. Throw in the fact that run defense can't stop anyone, and you have the score that you got. Better play-calling, but the defense might have dropped the ball on us this time. Nice on-sides kickoff too.

BAMA vs MISSISSIPPI STATE PREDICTION

Wow - Friday really snuck up on me this week. With all the travel last weekend to T-town, my work week was short, and before I could blink, MSU is coming to town. So now Bama is 6-3 with 3 games to go. One more win this weekend will push Bama to 7-3 and the hopes of winning at least one more to go to a decent bowl game. All 3 games are winable, but the question is, Will we actually win them? Time will tell..... but for tomorrow's game against Mississippi State, it's going to be anything but easy. I honestly expect MSU to give us everything they have, and we'll see their best game of the season. Henig is finally coming around along with his WRs. Then there is their defense which will definitely focus in on stopping the run and double-team DJ Hall. It's going to be another long day for Alabama.

First, MSU will keep Darby from going anywhere... so unless we throw some toss sweeps, we're going to punting - a lot. Next, Hall is going to have 2 guys on him all day long, which will leave Oakley, Caddell and Stover with man-on-man coverage for the most part. Those guys can't really play very good man offense, so we're going to have to go into our bag of tricks.... wait. We don't have a bag of tricks. We just play vanilla. Nothing fancy - just NFL football but without the NFL athletes. We might see more of what we saw last year - with other facets of the game having to score to put the game away.

The way I see it, Bama has 2 major advantages this year. (1) We're playing at home. We're undefeated at home this year though we haven't really played anyone very tough so far. MSU will have it rough as it is... but in the confines of Bryant-Denny, things will only be tougher. (2) Bama's Pass defense. Bama's defense has played well enough to keep us in every game this year. The 2ndary is playing very well and leads the conference in interceptions. I foresee another pick or two tomorrow, and hopefully they'll go for touchdowns.

As for the injury bug that has hit us as of late, hopefully, everyone is ok. From what I'm reading, Wilson should be ok and Brown will likely still be a gametime decision. But even if Brown plays, he's still not going to be at 100% which puts him in the same boat as Oakley and company - he won't be able to do much with man-on-man coverage - his knee just won't let him do it. So chalk this up for another defensive battle with Bama getting more FG's than MSU. One fluke TD is always in the mix as it's rare for us to shutout anyone... and Bama has to find a way to get the ball in the end zone. Special teams came up big last week and also last year in Starkville. We'll need more of the same tomorrow or things are really looking bleak to end the season. It's a 3-game season now - let's win all 3, Tide. Keep in mind that we always play to the level of the competition. On paper, it would be worse - but this ain't Vegas. This is ALABAMA FOOTBALL. LOL

PREDICTION:      BAMA 16 - MISSISSIPPI STATE 13
ACTUAL SCORE:  BAMA 16 - MISSISSIPPI STATE 24     (BAMADOG 8-2)

Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: Yeah, I figured we wouldn't score much, but dang if anyone knew MSU would put up 24 smackers against the Tide defense AT HOME, no less. Unfreaking believable! I think I'm more pissed off now than any other time in the Shula era. This loss is just down-right unacceptable. Period.

BAMA vs FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL PREDICTION

There really isn't much to say here. Who in their right mind would even pick a depleted FIU team (due to suspensions over the Miami brawl) over an Alabama team at home for homecoming. Of course we DO play down to the competition, but this week, it just won't happen. 36 points is the spread - we might actually cover it. I have to go with the Crimson Team this week. Get JPW outta there ASAP so he doesn't get a bogus injury and so that Barnes can get some snaps, aight? Last, with this win, Bama goes bowling... after this one, we just need to prove we can go somewhere better than Shreveport or Nashville. Big numbers from everyone Saturday, and the red zone offense finally gets on track against lesser competition. ROLL TIDE!

PREDICTION:      BAMA 31 - FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 0
ACTUAL SCORE:  BAMA 38 - FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 3     (BAMADOG 8-1)

Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: Pretty close prediction. Would have stood firm if we didn't give up that long pass play in the 1st half... anyway, good game despite the lack of offense. Other facets of the game nearly outscored the offense which is still worrisome. Let's hope Wilson is ok... though Barnes did show he could move the team a ways. Still need to dominate the whole game, not just one half.

BAMA vs #9 TENNESSEE PREDICTION

Well, we can finally say that it's the 3rd Saturday of October. In the past few years this game has been on any other Saturday but. That means it's Bama vs UT time. This year, the game is in Knoxville, and UT has the upper hand in every regard.

UT's offense is one of the best in the country, but not by their normal means. This season Ainge is airing it out with new offensive Coordinator David Cutcliffe. Oh no... those were the years when we couldn't beat UT worth a crap - when Cutcliffe was O.C. Now he's back and Bama could be in trouble. But their offense is good - really good. They put up 51 (27 in the 4th quarter) against Georgia, but then Georgia fell to Vanderbilt. Then there's Florida, which beat UT by 1. Then they beat us worse. UT's WR's are a huge threat in this game. For once, the 3-3-5 might have to win a game for us as UT will be throwing and throwing and throwing. BUT, as the historical Fulmer goes, so goes his conservative ways when it comes to playing Alabama. Every other team on the schedule, he shows now fear, and though he tends to own Bama as a head coach, he still plays conservative in this one game for some reason. Maybe because this is his biggest game of the year and he doesn't want to make mistakes. Yep.. that's it.

So how does Bama match up? Well, not too good. Bama's defense has shown that we can only play one half of football. The offense has shown it can get yards but not points. And the running game showed that it does have life, but against lesser defenses in the last couple of weeks. And this game is in Knoxville. Also, did you know that UT is completing nearly 60% on 3rd downs? That's 2nd in the country. So we know they can keep drives alive somehow, some way. Only Florida could stop them... and only by one point.

Let's face it; Bama has their work cut out for them this week. It's time to man up, but when it comes down to it, UT just has too much on offense and defense. Sure we could stop them - but when? After they score 30 or before? We tend to get rattled early and are still having trouble getting points. Add up the fact that Keith Brown won't be at 100%, and neither will DJ Hall, Bama's got a tough road ahead. Darby seems to be in top shape now, but with very little threat in the passing game, what do you think is going to happen? yeah - UT is going to stop the run and force 2nd-string WRs to win the game for Bama. There just isn't enough proof in the pudding to show Bama's 2nd stringers can win against a team like UT. Caddell is dropping passes all over, and Will Oakley just hasn't played enough. Throw in another freshman or sophomore and we've got trouble, Houston.

Given a healthy Hall and Brown, and man, this could be close... but with (likely) no Brown (at even 80%), this could be a woodshed beating because if the offense can't move the ball, Bama's defense is going to be on the field an awful lot... and tiring with each snap UT gets. A bye week definitely would help the Tide here, but with one of the best WRs in the country in Meacham, and a much-improving Ainge, Bama's going to have to play a PERFECT GAME to beat UT... and even then, it would be by 3 points or less. Bama's defense will tire, and without the hosses at WR, we're screwed. It's on Darby's shoulders and honestly, there won't be enough in that package to get the job done until Hall and Brown are 100%.

Special Teams? It won't matter. We might kickoff twice if we're lucky... but since predictions are always based on paper and gut, well, both are telling me this week with the injuries, we're in for a long drive home back to T-town... good luck, Tide. Get healthy for the rest of the season... (If we weren't so banged up, this prediction would change dramatically)... who knows what the unknown might bring Saturday. ROLL TIDE!

PREDICTION:      BAMA 7 - TENNESSEE 31 (banged-up/no Brown)
ACTUAL SCORE:  BAMA 13 - TENNESSEE 16     (BAMADOG 7-1)

Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: Bama made a game of it and the defense gave us a chance to win, but like I said - without Brown in the lineup, it was going to be an uphill battle all the way. Good try though, Tide.

BAMA vs OLE MISS PREDICTION

Basically this week's take is simple. Ole Miss is going to do what they did last year - and that's BLITZ the crap out of us. Duke did it and nearly pulled off the upset. Ever since Ole Miss did it last year, every team has done the same thing and nearly shut us down. It's insane how all these teams do this to us, but we can't do it back. Crazy.

As for Orgeron knowing what we're going to do, I can totally see that. Even I (and every other Bamafan) knows what we're going to do. It's very predictable and honestly, Shula isn't going to change anything, even with Ed stating that in his Monday Press Conference. If Shula continues to try and run Darby between the tackles, we're in big trouble. We need to do more of what we did at the end of the Duke game, and that's run the ball outside. For some reason, our inside blocking skills this year are just NOT working. If we don't pick up the blitz, Bama's going to have a tough time winning this game, period. JP will get the ball to Hall and Brown, but how many times is uncertain, especially with the calibur defense Ole Miss always plays against Alabama.

Now, normally, this would be a blowout game for Alabama because it's at home. We usually KILL Ole Miss in Bryant-Denny. This year will break the trend. Even though Ole Miss usually gives up once they enter our stadium, this year will be different. They will come in with a chip on their shoulder because they think they should have won last year's game - and frankly, they could have pulled it out if not for the long run by Darby late in the game. But their defense will be a force. How Bama reacts to the Ole Miss defense will tell many things about how we'll do in games against UT, LSU, and Auburn. Let's hope for the best.

On defense, we're stuck in a rut (3-3-5) defense against these running teams, and with Ole Miss's very fast RB, we're going to get run ALL OVER. We will not stop Ellis-Green at all. He'll have a TD, maybe 2, and about 150 yards on the ground, which really doesn't bode well for the Tide. That means we have to score more than 14 points. That in itself will be a huge feat against a defense that will be coming hard and fast and often. I can actually see us losing this game. The fact that Shula doesn't want to make this team better on the ground, and the fact that he somehow won't change what Kines is doing on defense just makes me question the future of this team. We have put up some serious yards on offense, but can't score. We play one half of defense and screw the other half. For Bama to win, our defense has to stop the run the entire game, and we have to be able to score points. If I could predict a tie, I would... Even though Ole Miss is 2-4, they don't play like it - just ask Georgia. They are going to be very tough to beat, and with them controlling the clock, this game, we'll have to reach deep to win - and bigtime. Let's just hope that Duke was the wake-up call Bama needed... I mean, if we're playing like that against Duke, I'm very scared of the rest of this season. Score Score Score, Bama!

PREDICTION:      BAMA 17 - REBELS 16
ACTUAL SCORE:  BAMA 26 - REBELS 23 (OT)     (BAMADOG 6-1)

Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: Like I said - down to the wire and tough-fought game. The biggest loss came with Brown and Johns; hopefully they will be back. Darby had a great game finally - hopefully we can continue that as well. JP continues to shine and D.J. Hall breaks the school record with 4 consecutive 100+ yards receiving. Congrats Bama on a game in which you played all the way through and finally gave Shula an OT win.

BAMA vs DUKE PREDICTION

This week, there really isn't much to predict. I mean, who in their right mind would pick Duke over Alabama??? It could happen, but will it? No.

Instead, the wrath of the Bama offense not scoring in recent weeks will be put upon the Blue Devils and frankly, the Blue Devils will be lucky to score at all. But given the fact that teams usually find a way to score at least once against us, I have to give them that. Can Bama finally stop the run against one of THE weakest offenses in the land? If not, we need to do some serious soul-searching. The spread is 29, but this should be much worse if we can play football like I know we can. We might not even make it in the red zone - meaning, we'll score outside the 20 yard line more than inside. But who knows. Either way, Bama gets it done, especially with a lot of red zone practice this week. It'll be good to lie back and relax for a change... I'm ready to see Roy Upchurch, Coach. Let's get him in the game. Like I said, ain't much to predict, is it? ROLL TIDE!

PREDICTION:      BAMA 41 - DUKE 7
ACTUAL SCORE:  BAMA 30 - DUKE 14     (BAMADOG 5-1)

Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: Super sloppy game. All I can say is that at halftime, I was fuming and about to explode. Maybe the coaching staff has figured out that there are better ways to run the ball besides up the middle...

BAMA vs #5 FLORIDA PREDICTION

This is a huge game for the Alabama Crimson Tide. Realistically, it should should be Bama 4-0 vs Florida 4-0 with both teams in the Top 20. Even though Bama lost against Arkansas, we're still that team regardless. Bama has the talent to beat the gators, but given the fact that Florida has improved drastically since last season, this is going to be a very tough road trip for the Tide. Everyone and their mama is picking Florida to beat the Tide this year. Especially after the Tide killed the gators last season 31-3. After the 1st quarter, Bama had already lead 21-0 and Urban Meyer's head was spinning. They didn't know what hit them.

But this is 2006 and Bama is a different team - mainly on defense. We lose Croyle, but everything else on offense is the same, only better, except for KD for some reason. Add in the fact that John Parker Wilson is playing very well thru the first 4 games, and you have an offense that's honestly just ready to explode. Darby has already said he's done dancing, and that he's going to hit the hole this week like the KD of old - we'll just have to see about that, won't we? Let's hope we see something besides the normal 1st down run up the middle for 0-2 yards.

On defense, Bama is still playing good ball and is ranked high in the NCAA in turnover margin and interceptions. Our scoring defense isn't bad either if you factor in the fact that one of the Hogs' TDs last week came off a fumble - we're stopping the opposition from getting into the end zone offensively for the most part. That's what's going give the Tide a good chance to win tomorrow.

But keep in mind, Florida is playing lights out on both offense AND defense. They have one of the best defenses in the country, not to mention Leak has thrown 12 TDs so far this year which leads the NCAA. Granted, the only team they have played was Tennessee, but they're still putting up better numbers than Bama. So obviously something has to give. If both defenses are playing well, and so are both offenses, then it could come down to special teams.... and we ALL know how important special teams are. The spread is 16, which is pretty insulting to me.... That means if we score 1 TD and a FG, they still have to score 26 points to cover... Don't know if that will happen, but I do know that we should score more than 10. But back to special teams - I think Bama can win with either Christensen or Tiffin. But given the fact that Tiffin struggled last week, Shula will probably do everything he can do to make sure Jamie is ready to take over FG work... even though, he's not 100%.

So matching up our teams to their teams, they honestly have the edge in every category. But the thing is, is that players make the plays. And who knows what Shula and company have in store for the gators this weekend. Last year, Florida was still in the beginning stages of the spread option offense that Meyer brought over from Utah. Now they are more proficient and they are going to be tough to beat. Our run defense has honestly sucked all year. The main point being that we only put 3 down linemen on defense, even against a run-happy offense like Arkansas. We need to go back to what really works for Bama - and that's 4 DL, 3 LBs and 4 DBs. Against the spread option where the run is always a threat, we need to fill the holes or they are going to 5-10 yard run us every down... which will kill our defense. Unless we plan on bringing some serious heat and actually getting in the backfield, it's going to be tough to stop the gators.

Then throw in the fact that Tim Tebow will definitely get a series or two, and he's been a rushing QB psychopath lately, he could really show us what we missed out on last recruiting season. Hopefully, our defense will really key in on Tebow and tell him otherwise - that he should have picked the Tide. In any case, we HAVE to shut down the UF running game, or we're literally going to get run out of the Swamp. Our pass defense will bend and we'll hopefully get an interception or two - but if we don't stop the run, we're headed for 3-2, Bama Nation.

Now given the way we have been playing against the run, and the fact that Kines is running a 3-4 defense, I can't see us stopping Florida unless he does something this week that I don't know about. 3-4 will get us beat. 4-3 will give us a chance. We just can't let UF's ground game dictate the pace of the game. We need to get turnovers and control the clock, something Bama is very good at - we lead the country in TOP. If we can control the clock and keep the UF offense on the sidelines, Bama has a legit shot at pulling off the upset. Also keep in mind that Bama has only lost ONE TIME in the swamp - and that was 1991. Every other time Bama has visited Gainesville, we won. Tomorrow, we could extend that streak - only the wrong streak - chalk up another loss to the Gators in Gainesville, but it's not like the Tide isn't going to fight. It's just that our running game is running (literally) on fumes - and our run defense must have taken notes from the run offense because we're lacking bigtime in that area as well ...... and it just doesn't add up, Christensen or no Christensen (which by the way is a game-time call). Keep your heads up guys - Bama can pull it out... but only if they're doing stuff in practice we're not aware of. Let's hope that crap is going on, yanno? Here's to a new and Improved Ken Darby - and a new philosophy in stopping the run. ROLL TIDE! Get 'em Bama! And prove me wrong!

PREDICTION:      BAMA 17 - GATORS 26
ACTUAL SCORE:  BAMA 13 - GATORS 28     (BAMADOG 4-1)

Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: Turnovers were key in this game along with the fact that we couldn't stop their running game. If we do those 2 things, Bama comes out of the Swamp with a W. But that's why they're #5 and we're not this time around. We're not playing like a top 25 team right now and we deserve to be where we're at.

#22 BAMA vs ARKANSAS PREDICTION

Game #4. This one's a toughy... wow. Both teams are about as even as they come on paper, but with Bama slightly ahead in most facets of the game. But this game is in Fayetteville where the home team has won the last 8 of 10 games. Thinking about how the team will react plays a large part if making these predictions, and so far this season, the Tide hasn't had to face a loud crowd, at least on offense. I have been to Fayetteville 3 times for Bama/Hog games and I'll tell you first hand that it's very loud. It's a good thing one end zone is all video screen or it would be louder. The pig-suey's, that lame annoying mic announcer, and the feel of the big game away could get some of our younger players to question themselves. We really need to rely on our seniors to make plays for us in this game - and that would mean defense

It's going to be a huge battle in the trenches with McFadden being probably the most gifted offensive player on the field Saturday. That doesn't take anything away from Darby, DJ Hall, or Keith Brown - but McFadden, even though only a sophomore, is a beast. He's big; he's strong; he's fast; and as everyone saw last year, he can give a mean stiff-arm, so he's the real deal... one of the best RB's Bama will face all year. That's my biggest concern for this game. If McFadden gets on track, it could be a long day for Bama.

Now Arkansas leads the SEC in rushing - and Bama, thus far has had a tough time stopping the running game - mainly tackling. This week, Shula has stepped up the tackling drills and has spent time having the 1's on offense go against the 1's on defense for a change. There has been too many missed tackles and hopefully most of that has been fixed for this week's tough road game. If we can tackle well, we have a decent shot at not only winning, but winning big. If we don't, I expect a very close game that could come down to the wire again.

On Bama's offense, John Parker Wilson will need to stay calm in the pocket and keep in mind that this defense will be faster than any other defense he has played against so far this season. Being a young guy, he can't get flustered if he throws an interception. He can't stay in the pocket and get sacked all day. He's going to have to have a very level head come Saturday for Bama to put up big points. Darby looks to get on track, but honestly, I don't look for him to have a big day. He's been hurt, and honestly, the Arkansas defense isn't going to allow Darby (or any running back) win the game for us. They are going to put the game on the shoulders of JPW. But don't fret - Bama's thinking the same thing. If we can shut down and focus big on the run, Mitch Mustain will have to win the game for the Hogs. Both offenses are similar, but with Arkansas having much more success on the ground. Bama hasn't played any defensive-rich teams and we still struggled on the ground... and what I'm talking about is the starters. 4th quarter mop-up duty excluded, and Bama didn't do a heckuva lot against ULM - not what it should have done. But we did get a lot of production out of Jimmy Johns in the 1st two games, then the backups for ULM actually did well too - Grant (who is out for the season), Sharriff, and Upchurch. With Johns back in the picture, if Darby isn't cutting it, go strictly with a guy that CAN get the job done. Enough dancing at the line and just bust thru that thing and get some yards. I look for Johns and Upchurch to get some carries, and with them in the game, I think Bama's running game will flourish a bit more.

Then there's Bama's OL/DL vs the Hog OL/DL. Our OL has been great at pass-blocking this year. JPW has rarely tasted dirt in the sack column, but where it will matter for both teams is the running game. I think Arkansas will outrush Bama tomorrow. They're offense is moving the ball better on the ground, and Bama's DL hasn't shown a lot of pressure sack-wise. The 2ndary has been running around like crazy against 3 pass-oriented teams. That will play a huge role in trying to stop the passing game that we hope to force Arkansas into. I don't see it happening though. I see a big rush-oriented offense to keep Mustain from having to win the game against Bama's quick but inexperience defense.

It's really a huge battle of chess against 2 teams where either team could honestly win - it just depends on what day of the year it is, which is what makes this a difficult pick. Another key in the game is that both McFadden and Felix return kickoffs - so even if we score, we have got to put the ball in the end zone. We have seen some poor tackling on kickoffs up to ULM, but with McFadden and Felix back there, they bring a new dimension to the game. They are game-breakers and they will be tough to stop on returns. That's where we have to hope Christensen is still ok to kickoff. Bama needs him in that area... and we'll still stick with Tiffin for FG's. So let's gear up for kickoffs, Bama. McFadden will get the ball one way or the other.

Last, I do want people to keep in mind that Arkansas will be hard to read. We'll think they're going to do one thing, then they do another. They have a very disguised offense at times and they always run a few trick plays in the game that could make or break them. We have to be sound on defense. Bigtime. Then there's time of possession. Bama leads the conference in TOP and that will play a huge role in tomorrow's game. With the game rolling by even quicker now, he who has the ball the longest will probably win. And this will probably be THE quickest game of the season with both teams trying to run the ball as much as possible... You thought last week's 2:47 was short? This week might be shorter if CBS doesn't give extra filler commercial slots. So given the fact that Arkansas can run the ball and Bama has had trouble stopping the run while mostly being in the nickel package, I'm going to have to pick the Ho...wait. What am I thinking? :)

Look, both teams have new QBs and Arkansas has the home advantage. But people, Bama IS a better football team though the scores don't show it. TURNOVERS. Those have kept Bama from putting up big numbers so far. Dang if we haven't used them all up (I hope). It's going to be grind-it-out time. But when it comes down to the bottom line, Bama still has more weapons on offense. On defense, Bama will focus more in the run, giving us more guys up front and more LBs. No more rushing 3 guys on the DL. This is Bama football, people. This what we saw last year - and Bama's going to rattle that Arkansas offense... and Arkansas's defense is going to rattle us - and that crowd is going to be loud - and JPW will likely throw an int... Hogs lead at the half, but some serious defense by the Tide gets Bama with a slim win over the piggies in one that is just too close to call. Just don't go to OT... we haven't fared too well in those lately. With Bama focusing in on McFadden, Mitch Mustain just won't have enough fuel in the tank to get the job done... JPW will have a few drops left to get the job done somehow... The score could easily go the other way around, BUT that's my pick and I'm sticking to it. COOK THOSE OINKERS & ROLL TIDE!

PREDICTION:      BAMA 17 - ARKANSAS 16
ACTUAL SCORE:  BAMA 23 - ARKANSAS 24     (BAMADOG 3-1)

Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: Let's just say that this Bama team did NOT deserve what they got. 3 missed FGs and a missed PAT is not how you win games. It's not all on Tiffin, but 90% of it is. 10% is Darby up the middle for 0-2 yards on 1st down almost every single 1st down play... All that keeps going thru my head right now is 'what the #$&#%@#$!'

#24 BAMA vs LOUISIANA-MONROE PREDICTION

Hmmmm.... Bama's a 25-point favorite in this one and we have yet to score 25 points in a game. NO wait. We barely scored that in week 1... and have have gone backwards since then. Ever since Prothro went down, we can't really do much of anything. Pro's still out, so I don't see us doing much better until Bama proves the critics wrong. 25 points? 24-0 is the best I could come up with, but the fact that ULM will score pretty much makes this a no-brainer if you're a gambler. Bama won't cover the spread this week. Take that to the bank unless somehow, somewhere, a fire gets lit under they @$$e$ this week, yanno? Who knows if Darby is still really hurt... Christensen likely won't play... and the defense is still trying to find their identity along with the offensive line's run-blocking. It could be a lot of Jimmy Johns, DJ Hall, and Keith Brown Saturday. I would hope the running game gets into action pretty quickly. I defintely see Bama being up at least 17-7 at the half. With a few icing points in the 2nd half, Bama still won't impress as we find it difficult to humiliate teams when they're down - that's why they always come back. We always want to appear to be the good guy. For Pete's sake, smash these clowns into the ground and SHOW for once why we should be a Top 25 team. If we can't do that, then we prolly don't deserve to be there, 3-0 or not.

There really isn't much to call on this game... should be a 'W' for Bama. We'll only make the headlines tomorrow if we lose it. Better not. As for the offense, something's just wrong. We can't even score enough points to cover the spread... but then again, maybe we'll get that fire lit good and hot in the locker room during pregame. We shall see. What else is there to say?? ROLL TIDE!

PREDICTION:      BAMA 24 - WARHAWKS 10
ACTUAL SCORE:  BAMA 41 - WARHAWKS 7     (BAMADOG 3-0)

Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: After one half of play, you'd think my prediction would have held true almost. But the 2nd half was just a can of whoop*** that Bama unleashed on ULM. We actually covered the spread. Amazing. Let's do it again next week.

#25 BAMA vs VANDY PREDICTION

Ok, the offensive powerhouse of Hawaii has finally left to go back to the islands in the Pacific, and now Bama gets to take on some competition in the SEC. This being Shula's 4th year, and Hawaii not really being much of an opponent for Bama (throughout most of the game honestly), and Bama's offense supposedly getting better going into week 2, and then the defense playing very well and making adjustments after a late rally by Hawaii..... I don't see how Bama can lose unless we just freaking give it away. Period.

Vandy went into Ann Arbor last weekend and actually kept it close for most of the game until Michigan took control in the 2nd half. With the temps not being that bad, Vandy really didn't have an excuse other than they were starting a brand new QB in a hostile environment. Well, welcome to week 2 of hostile environment. Vandy won't be in awe by any means, but they will find it even more difficult to get into the end zone against a Bama defense that is finding itself quickly.

Vandy actually got into the end zone against Michigan because their defense wasn't sound... it came off a trick play. Overall, Vandy's offense just didn't click, but that's not to say they won't click come tomorrow. But as Vandy improves, so will Bama. And with the addition of D.J. Hall back in the lineup, that's one more HUGE weapon Bama has at its fingertips. Brown can deliver already... and hopefully Darby's hip pointer will be healed by 2:30. If not, look for Jimmy Johns to get a lot of carries and get some serious chunks of yards. He doesn't really run like a running back, but more like a huge bowling ball going downhill. He's big and just runs over you until he goes down. No jukes, no spins, no serious speed... just a giant mass of football player that says "Stop me if you can". I can dig it.

The OL looks to also improve on a pretty good game as well. I honestly look for Bama to air it out a bit more, and for the WR's to really get in on the action as Shula tries to prep John Parker Wilson for the upcoming SEC slate that will begin in 2 more weeks at Arkansas. Time to go deep, and it's time to hit the WRs in stride so they don't have to come back for the ball, though that can definitely benefit the WR if the CB isn't paying attention to the ball - easy passing interference call if that happens. But if the CB is looking, it's an easy pick. So hopefully JPW can get a bit better this week in completing the long ball, and keep his throws in bounds when he sees a wide-open WR.

I also look for JPW to hit the TE about the same as the last game. With all the targets Bama has, he's going to spread it out a bit - so another 3-catch game by the TE position would be fine as they usually eat up huge chunks of yardage.

Last is the red zone offense. Let's just say that this has always been an issue with Shula-coached teams. Hopefully they can start punching it in the end zone so we don't have to have last-minute heroics by the other team. Put them out of their misery early, and then get some backups in the game in the 4th quarter without having to worry about losing.

On defense, Vandy isn't really going to do anything special that will surprise us. They will likely try a trick play or three during the game - so that's the biggest thing we need to watch out for. It seems like every time we play Vandy, they have a trick play just for us. Remember when the punter just took the ball down and ran right up the middle for a 70-yard score. Bama didn't even know what hit them until he was in the end zone. Man did we look stupid.

On special teams, Tiffin will likely get the start again at FG kicker, but I don't see that causing problems in this game. If it comes down to a FG to win it, we have problems. PJ Fitzgerald did well against Hawaii, and I expect he'll do the same for the Vandy game. We just need to do a lot better job on kickoff coverage tackling. Most of this is due to the lack of height/distance on the kickoffs, so let's see what Shula and the gang have done to correct this... don't need to give Vandy starting position at the 40 yard line every time we score, right?

Now they have the 2003 Alabama Mr. Football (JPW was the runner-up that year), so you can bet that JP will definitely want to put up some better numbers... and same for Nickson, Vandy's QB. I can see both defenses giving each QB a hard time, but when it's all said and done, Bama gets it done and will force Vandy to go strictly thru the air late in the game, leading to a Bama defensive score. The spread is 16 points, but unlike most Bama games, and even though Vandy usually plays Bama tough, I can see a small blowout here. It's at home, and like last week, the atmosphere will be electric for kickoff. Too much Bama early on, and Vandy will be up against a brick wall with the defense playing sound this week, and playing like Kines wants them to play. A lot of the guys on defense were 1st-time starters last week, and it showed. Now they have played - they know the feeling - and it's time to show how Bama really plays defense. I definitely look for a good defensive game by Bama. On offense, I see bigger numbers than last week though Vandy is definitely a better defensive team than Hawaii. Don't know how that'll happen, but we'll get it done. ROLL TIDE!

PREDICTION:      BAMA 34 - VANDY 9
ACTUAL SCORE:  BAMA 13 - VANDY 10     (BAMADOG 2-0)

Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: Tight game... too tight. Period. Unless we get some serious attitude adjustment on offense AND defense, we're going to leave the door open to LA-Monroe next week too. Lame - just pure lame. A win's a win, but playing like this won't win many games for you.

#24 BAMA vs HAWAII PREDICTION

Well, it's a new season, and the Crimson Tide is anxiously awaiting kickoff in newly-renovated Bryant-Denny Stadium. There are 92,000+ fans that are awaiting the same thing. First opponent - Hawaii. It seems just like yesterday that Bama went there for 2 back-to-back years... but it was the 2003 season when the Tide made it to Honolulu last, where the Tide lost 37-29. Bama had won the previous year. So now, the tie must be broken as Bama is 1-1 in the all-time series against Hawaii.

On offense, Bama basically replaces 2 guys... QB and LT. John Parker Wilson will add a slightly new dimension to the QB position as he has some scramble ability unlike Croyle. And at LT, Andre Smith, Bama's highly-touted offensive lineman, will start on the OL as a true freshman. And from what coaches and teammates are saying, he's as good as advertised.

But for Bama to be successful in this game, we have to be able to run the ball. Will we? You betcha. Darby and company should run literally for a couple hundred or more yards against a defense that ranked 102 out of 119 teams last year. Add in the fact that they lost over 1/2 of THOSE guys, and you have even more inexperience against one of the premier running offenses in the SEC. I expect a freaking HUGE day from Bama's running game, and Darby should have over 150 by himself. I can see a lot of long runs too. Darby and our RB's are just too talented. Hawaii won't roll over dead, but Bama will make it look like it as the 92K+ of rabid fans let the Rainbow Warriors have it.

Then the passing game... JP Wilson will rely mostly on the running game, but Shula will still want to be as balanced as possible. I definitely look for DJ Hall and Keith Brown to make some noise at WR - but the surprise of the day could be Matt Caddell or Nick Walker. With a lot of focus on Hall and Brown, those other guys could get some serious looks. JPW should have a good day though he could still make his share of mistakes. After all, this is his first collegiate start for the Crimson Tide. But I think the leadership of this offense with practically everyone coming back, will make this team chug into the winner's circle.

On defense, Bama returns a defense that is very familiar with this type of offense. The problem is that 7 of them didn't start last year... but they all practiced against it when prepping for the Cotton Bowl and Texas Tech. That in itself will be huge as we know what to expect. Bama will have to use for most of the day, the nickel/dime packages to stay up with Hawaii's speedy WRs. With Bama playing this type of offense, you couldn't ask for a better game to sit out Juwan Simpson since you're probably going to play only 1-2 LBs in a given set anyway. How long Simpson sits out remains a mystery, but I'm guessing a one-game suspension. As for DJ Hall, I don't have a clue. But the guy this year to watch out for at LB is Terrance Jones. That dude is one prime-time player. He hits very hard and seems to always be around the ball. If not for DeMeco Ryans, Jones would probably be in his 3rd year as a starter... he's that good. Then we have Prince Hall & Matt Collins. Both will see playing time, but with this type of offense we're up against, we might see a bit more of Hall since he's quicker on his feet.

Up front, Bama hopes to bring the heat to limit passing by Colt Brennan, Hawaii's record-setting QB. The more time we give him, the more he's going to try and slice-n-dice our defense. So Bama will have to come with everything they have to shut down the offensive attack of Hawaii.

Things do bode well for Bama stat-wise... Hawaii hasn't won a road non-conference win since 1988. They now have to deal with rowdy Bamafans while on offense instead of being in the confines of their own Aloha stadium. Defensively, Hawaii just won't have a chance in my opinion. With Bama's running game at full speed, Hawaii's defense is going to get tired, and I actually expect a decently high score from Bama's offense. The key is, can we hold back Hawaii's offense so it's not (as Kines calls it) 'basketball on grass'. That's the key of the game. Can Bama stop Hawaii enough to keep it from being a shootout? I believe they'll get the job done though I do expect some big plays by the visiting team. This, after all, IS Hawaii's main point of attack. They throw the ball, just like we run the ball. Why do you think Kines is so nervous when playing these types of teams?

So look for Bama to play an aggressive defense and keep the Warriors' offense in check while the Bama offense chugs away a good bit of yardage on the Hawaii defense. If it's a shootout, I believe Bama still wins, mainly because running teams can control the game a bit better. Eventually, Hawaii will slip and throw an interception. Brennan only threw 13 ints in all of last year, but he didn't go up against the defense of Alabama's calibur either. With inexperience comes question marks. If we can hold Hawaii to a respectable score, we'll know we can stop just about anyone on the schedule, because Bama can stop the running game - the question is the passing game with our new starters. Going up against last year's #2 offense will be tough especially with most of them returning. But Bama gets it done to give Shula the 1-0 start for 2006, and one game under the defense's belt. Good luck Bama... just don't let it get out of hand. ROLL TIDE.

PREDICTION:      BAMA 34 - HAWAII 21
ACTUAL SCORE:  BAMA 25 - HAWAII 17     (BAMADOG 1-0)

Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: A Win is a win, and Bama honestly outplayed Hawaii up until the 4th quarter, but a gut-check at the end gave Bama the win with the defense. Biggest improvements are always made from game 1 to game 2... let's hope that holds true.