BAMA vs COLORADO, INDEPENDENCE BOWL PREDICTION

First of all, it's been a while since I've updated and written my comments on the page. Christmas was crazy with family coming in for the holidays for the first time since I've been in Dallas (1995). Now, hopefully, things will be back on track and we'll continue on with hoops season going into the summer.

As for the bowl game, it's definitely a 'plus' for Bama to go, but definitely a disappointment after starting the season so well. Losses to Louisiana-Monroe and Mississippi State really stung this team going 6-6 instead of what could have easily been 8-4 and a visit to the Peach Bowl or Cotton Bowl. But I guess you take the good with the bad.

One good thing that has happened lately is the rise of the Tide in the recruiting rankings. Both Rivals & Scout have the Tide in the Top 4 classes in the country, and we could still move up from there if we can get some final highly-rated recruits come signing day. The good thing about this class is that Bama will be able to sign over the limit because 3 can go against last year's numbers. 2 recruits already committed will start in the spring with one more on the way. So things look good so far in the recruiting world for Bama. Signing Day is February 6.

As for predicting this game, it's anyone's guess really. In ESPN's Bowl Mania, 73% of America have Bama winning the game with medium confidence. One big play here or there could decide the game. Colorado's defense is pretty susceptible against the pass which is good for Bama... BUT JP Wilson has been all but accurate as of late hitting Bama's big WRs. Hall needs less than 100 yards to get 1000 for the season, so that still might happen. Bama's running game also looks to get back on track as all 3 RBs are healthy enough to play. Coffee will be the starter, but Upchurch and Grant will get some carries as well. And Bama's offensive line will be back intact the same way it started the season - so maybe, Just Maybe, the Tide can start putting up big numbers like they did to start the season.

On the flip side, Bama's defense, which was thought to be the weak point on the team, has gotten better as the season has gone along. Gilberry has finally arrived with 9 sacks on the season and the LBs/DBs have kept Bama in every game this year. The only problem has been the lack offense as of late. So if Bama can put up some points, we might be able to pull a long-needed Bowl win out of our hat. Will Bama win? Flip a coin. Due to its lackluster appeal, there hasn't been much to read about either team, and frankly, no one really cares about it much. Colorado DID happen to beat a flailing Nebraska team to end its season by scoring 50+, but its defense is still sketchy.

On special teams, Arenas is back, but right now not at 100%. He's about 80+% - enough to probably return punts for the Tide. Hopefully he can do what he's done all year (and also did in last year's Independence Bowl) and have some good returns and possibly a TD.

This game will probably come down to a FG or less though. Bama's offense has enough weapons to do something against the Buffs' defense... and Bama's defense has kept on improving all year - so we should be able to keep the offense in the game as it has done all year long. It could come down to a Tiffin kick - if so, I feel good about our chances as he has gotten better as the season has progressed. I have to pick the Tide - too much tradition... lot at stake for the 6-6 team and seniors... and it's what this team needs heading into Spring Practice. 6-7 was last year's record. This year, we turn it around, but it won't be easy if we even get the win. Hopefully they don't take the game lightly because Colorado is coming out to play hard. I wouldn't be surprised to even see Colorado leading at halftime. We just have to find a way to win in the end if that happens. Roll Tide!

PREDICTION:      BAMA 20 - COLORADO 17
ACTUAL SCORE:  BAMA 30 - COLORADO 24     (BAMADOG 9-4)

Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: We started out strong and tried to give it away in the 2nd half. It really reminded me of the Arkansas game only we got some much-needed 1st downs at the very end. Good finish, and way to go out with a winning season. ROLL TIDE!

BAMA vs #25 AUBURN PREDICTION

Ok people. Let's get real here. What has Bama done lately? Not what they did 3-4 weeks ago. How is Bama playing now? NOT GOOD. Of course, there is the issue of the suspended players during this time... and having 3 of those on offense have probably made a difference. But now, how will Bama respond with those absent starters coming back into the lineup? Coffee will hopefully bring a little more power in the running game... and Caldwell/Davis combo will hopefully give Wilson an extra second or two to throw the ball. The last few years, AU has just brought the house on defense and we haven't been able to do anything to combat it.

One other thing we have in our favor is that the game is in Auburn. Yeah, yeah... a road win? Well, AU has never lost in Bryant-Denny, so if history is any indication, our odds are still better in Jordan-Hare when we have nothing to lose. Now Bama comes to the game with a much needed win scenario to get to a bowl game for sure. A loss would put those bowl hopes in the 50% range with a 6-6 record.

On offense, Wilson has not clicked - whether that's due to the offensive line, we'll never know - but it hasn't helped matters. Also, who's calling plays??? It can't be Applewhite alone, because there's NO way HIS offense run like this. I'm ready to see some creativeness... so far, all I've seen is more of last year's offense, and oh yeah, I saw us lose to freaking Louisiana-Monroe. Auburn's defense will be ready. Forget what Georgia did to them... they are better than that, and they'll show up tomorrow. Bama, on the other hand, will have to play some solid run defense and hope Cox makes a mistake or two. On paper, Auburn wins hands-down. They still haven't suffered the scholarship losses like Alabama... they'll have the home field crowd... and they have a chance to go for 6 in a row against Alabama - something unheard of in Alabama history.

Saban will have the team ready, but the crowd and pressure on the offense could keep the team from doing what we want to do. I look for AU to be JACKED UP at kickoff. With all the pressure on the Alabama offense, I don't see them scoring a lot against Auburn's fast and blitzing defense. Auburn's offense, however, should be able to move the ball ok at times - and with the Bama offense's turnovers, that'll give Auburn just the edge they need to pull out the win. Bama has to learn to take care of the ball... and lately, they have given me NO reason whatsoever to think we'll take care of it tomorrow. You are what you are. If you throw interceptions and fumble the ball, then that's who you are if you don't correct those things.... and we haven't. Tough loss for Bama on the road as turnovers and (again) lack of offense doom the Tide. I have my fingers crossed for a win, but based on what I've seen on the field the last 3 weeks, I have no choice. I have seen us play, and it ain't pretty, people. :(

PREDICTION:      BAMA 17 - #25 AUBURN 23
ACTUAL SCORE:  BAMA 10 - #25 AUBURN 17     (BAMADOG 8-4)

Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: As expected, Auburn's defense did enough to beat Alabama's inept offense. Something has to give next year on offense as this 'revamped' offense looks like the same Shula-run offense we have seen the last 4 years. Nothing new. Same result. Another loss in November to finish out the season with a losing streak. However, Tiffin finished off the year right with another long FG.

BAMA vs LOUSIANA-MONROE PREDICTION

Alabama might actually have a chance to win a game in November as I believe we are 0 for our last 8 November games. Though nothing is a 100% definite win, this is the game where the odds are definitely in Bama's favor. We're playing a team that has only won 4 games in a lesser-competitive conference and are also playing with a redshirt freshman though he can be dangerous with his legs at times. Thing is, is that he is very prone to throwing interceptions which our defense has been thriving on this year, especially in the last few games. This bodes well for the Tide at home where I expect a bigger-than-normal non-conference game crowd with this game not being aired on TV (dang it!!).

On offense, JPW and the WRs hope to get back to what they were doing earlier in the year - completing passes. It seems as of late, teams are stopping our passing game by means of double-covering DJ Hall and also taking advantage of the lack of offensive line experience we have up front. Hopefully, for this game, we'll break out of that even though LA-Monroe really likes to stop the run. They rank 1st in the Sun Belt in stopping the run. And with the lack of OL manpower for Bama, they could still have a better-than-average day. But if Bama can somehow get it together and run behind big Andre Smith and get the blocks they've been missing the last couple of games, we might have a good chance at really sticking the ground game to the Warhawks most of the way.

Bama's defense definitely needs to get ready as they will have to stop a very good RB named Calvin Dawson. He's a very powerful, yet quick RB, that ran for over 100 yards against Bama last year. Of course, last year, Bama used the infamous 3-3-5 defense that couldn't beat their way out of a wet paper bag... but this year, we have done much better in stopping the run as the season has gone along. I expect Bama to keep Dawson under 100 yards this go around, but could still get upwards of 80 yards on the day if he doesn't have any long TD runs.

So with the pickoffs in the Bama Secondary against the redshirt freshman, and the ability to stop the run, I actually see this one getting ugly, even before halftime as the Bama offense stays on the field most of the day and wears out the LA-Monroe defense. If we can get a big enough lead, maybe we can actually get Greg McElroy some snaps as well. You never know if he might need to come in during the Iron Bowl next week (based on last year's Sack Lunch Auburn's DL had).

So look for some decent offensive numbers - and look for JPW to hit DJ Hall on some long passes as LA-Monroe's secondary is prone to getting burned on the long ball. Too many weapons for Bama to lose this game. Even with Shula's offense last year, Bama still rolled up a nice 41-7 victory. Yes, anything can happen, but tomorrow, I'd bet the farm on Bama... as would anybody. Let's just hope Appy State doesn't show up and surprise us. ROLL TIDE!

PREDICTION:      BAMA 34 - LOUISIANA-MONROE 10
ACTUAL SCORE:  BAMA 14 - LOUISIANA-MONROE 21     (BAMADOG 7-4)

Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: What the crap?????????????? 5 turnovers, no consistency at QB, no continuity... NO WIN. Somehow we're actually getting worse again this year... very Shula-esk if not worse. Unfreakin-believable.

#21 BAMA vs MISSISSIPPI STATE PREDICTION

This week is another revenge game for Bama (as most are this year). Last year, Mississippi State stunned the Tide at home 24-16 and more than likely sealed the fate of ex-coach Mike Shula. Losing to the worst team in the conference is NOT on the menu, especially last year. This year, a new sheriff is in town, and Saban will hopefully right the ship to start this end-of-season run. Last year, Bama hauled off 4 straight losses to end the season. This year, it doesn't hurt to have LA-Monroe stuck in the middle of MSU and AU, to hopefully stop that streak 99%. Now, Bama has a chance to start the end of the season on a good note, but MSU will definitely still pose some problems for a roster-crippled Tide.

First off, Bama is missing offensive linemen due to the textbook crap and back spasms (Cardwell). So there's a possibility we might see 3 new OL this week playing a differen position. That doesn't bode well for Bama since everything starts there. If we had our regular mules up front, I might not be so worried. But this IS a cause for concern for Bama. If we don't do a better job of protecting JP Wilson this week, we could see more of the same of last week. Yeah, I know, this is Mississippi State, not LSU. Well, in this day and age of the Appalachian State and Stanford, know that anything is possible. After all, MSU beat us last year in Bryant-Denny Stadium - something no one would have guessed. Also, keep in mind that Alabama has lost their last 6 November games. Yeah, that's right. November hasn't been nice to the Tide as of late, so it's time to get our act together and break that streak.

As for Bama's offense, I think we'll move the ball ok against MSU's defense. But the problem is that MSU's defense has been what's been keeping them in games this year along with their running backs. But for Bama, we're going to have to pass the ball to open up the running game. Usually, it's the other way around, but not this week. Miss St is going to sell out against Bama's running attack and make JPW beat them. Only this week, JP will be able to make some plays against MSU's defense though nothing spectacular. MSU's pass defense is 5th in the league at 191 ypg. So hopefully Applewhite has some tricks up his sleeve to get things opened up - because this WILL be a tough game for Alabama on offense. Other notes of interest: Hall only needs 1 more TD to tie the Alabama all-time record for career TDs. And strangely enough, Wilson actually has been more accurate on the road this season (58.8%) than at home (54.6%). Go figure. I think LSU had something to do with that too (14 of 40).

On the flip side, QB Wesley Carroll (who is making his 5th consecutive start) has thrown 137 passes without getting picked off this season, only 2 away from an NCAA record. He should get that, but eventually, I believe he will get picked off. Lately, Johnson and Jackson have been playing very well in the 2ndary...and it's only a matter of time before the freshman throws his first pick. Anyway, Bama's defense will be mocking the MSU defense in trying to shut down the run and force MSU to throw. MSU's power is in their running game with Dixon their workhorse. He's a load to bring down, and he'll likely get 100 yards on the day. We just need to keep it under control and not let them control the clock and keep our defense out there too long - or they'll definitely wear us down. The good thing is that MSU's pass offense ranks at the bottom of the SEC (along with total offense), so if we CAN shut down Dixon, things should look better for the Tide to win this game in the 2nd half. MSU had a bye week last week, so they'll be well-rested. We are the 4th straight ranked team they have played, so their fans are getting their money's worth. They have already beaten Auburn and Kentucky, so they will definitely NOT be a pushover.

On special teams, I think this is where the Tide will excel. If we can force MSU to punt more than they want, they'll have a tough decision on whether or not to punt to Arenas or try and punt it out-of-bounds. If they're smart, they'll squib-punt it or punt it in the corners... or Arenas will burn them like everyone else. MSU is next to last in the SEC in defending punts, so I don't expect a lot of long punts on the day by the bulldogs. MSU is also allowing 40.7 net yards per kickoff. Now obviously, they'll need to score a lot to have kickoffs, but that in itself is a positive in Bama's favor. If they score, they have to defend Arenas, period. Bama on the other hand has actually been very solid in the coverage game, but still needs help on punts as Fitzgerald still struggles with the long punt... though he has been effective from time to time in getting the ball inside the 20 when we're at midfield (but I guess that's his range though, right?).

So what do you make of all this? Well, this game will be a defensive one, in my opinion. MSU is going to force Bama to air it out, and depending on how well they cover DJ Hall, Bama's score will depend on the passing game. Last year, Hall still broke the 100-yd mark in the loss, but I expect Hall to get even more. He's a senior, and MSU's pass defense just hasn't been able to keep up. I look for JPW to go over the top to either him or Brown sometime in this game. Applewhite knows he's got some speed with these senior WRs so he better use it now. And hopefully this will open up the running game. Gilberry and Co. will need to put serious pressure on Carroll - that's how we'll get him to make a mistake or 2 and give some momentum back to Alabama. I think we can do it... Overall, Bama's still got more talent, and this year, I don't see the other side outsmarting us. The advantage definitely goes to Alabama, but with this game on the road and cowbells ringing at a peak volume, I still expect it to be close going into the 4th quarter. No one can seriously pick MSU. Bama should be more than a 4.5 favorite to win this game. MSU won't win even by the slimmest of margins with their freshman QB. It just can't (better not) happen.... Bama has too much to lose at this point trying to get the best bowl possible. MSU will fight and claw, but I see Bama victorious in the end. Special Teams are the difference in this one I think and JPW/Hall/Brown/Caddell combo will have to put some points on the board because MSU will score - and they'll score with their horses in the backfield. As usual, we'll just have to score more as we have trouble stopping anyone. ROLL TIDE!

PREDICTION:      #21 BAMA 30 - MISSISSIPPI STATE 23
ACTUAL SCORE:  #21 BAMA 12 - MISSISSIPPI STATE 17     (BAMADOG 7-3)

Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: Yeah, who would have picked this one? I don't think I even saw ONE prediction anywhere that had MSU over the Tide. It was just one of those crappy days for Bama in November. Having nearly the entire OL playing different positions is really screwing the Tide right now, and JPW is playing about as bad as you can play. Up next - Louisiana-Monroe. Maybe we can get a November win then? Keep your fingers crossed.

#17 BAMA vs #3 L.S.U. PREDICTION

The week of the so-called "Saban Bowl I" is at hand after a much-needed bye week, and all the country is talking about this game. Bama vs LSU in Tuscaloosa. Right now, according to the records, Bama and LSU are the top 2 teams in the conference. Tomorrow, ONE team will be at the top by themselves and with all the momentum to get themselves to the SEC Championship game vs the East Winner. All week, Saban and Miles have said it's not about the coaches - but if it's not, why are they bringing it up? :) It's not like they had to say that in other weeks, right? They know it's about them. Of course, when the ball is kicked off, it won't matter because it will be the players making the plays. The fact that Saban left LSU won't matter one bit, and there's nothing that the fans can do in the stands to make it about anything other than cheering your team to win. They're not cheering Miles for sure.

So as this week has gone along, I have been flip-flopping back and forth until I'm blue. I honestly don't know which Jekyl and Hyde team will show up on Saturday for Alabama. We play 1.25 quarters in the Arkansas game and win; we play about 5 mins against FSU and lose; we play most of the game vs Ole Miss, but brain fart at the end to win; we play the 2nd half of the Georgia game and lose... then somehow out of the freaking blue, 3 starting offensive players find out they can't play the following day against the biggest game of the year up to that point in Tennessee, and we just annihilate them 41-17 with the only brain fart in that game coming in the waning seconds before halftime. JP had a good game along with Hall, Grant, Tiffin, and Arenas. It was the first time all year we played that well when we could have clamped up and felt sorry for ourselves.

Clearly Saban has this group's mindset where it needs to be. 3 guys can't start? No problem. You, you, and you will start and you'll play in one of the best games of your careers. Bama ponied up and got the job done. Now UT's defense is good, but not THAT good... and that leads me to this week's prediction. LSU's defense is FOR REAL. Period. Dorsey and company are going to wreak havoc on our offensive line. We just haven't faced a DL like LSU's this year. They lead the SEC in scoring defense, total defense, rushing defense, and a bunch of other things. They also lead the conference in T.o.P. which is huge. That's Bama's bread and butter - holding the football. On the flip side, Bama's defense is suspect at best, but with Perriloux out of the game, we definitely don't have to prepare for as much for his offensive packages.

Now don't get me wrong here - because Flynn is still a very capable runner. He's pretty fast. He played baseball, and you don't play baseball if you can't run. But now, LSU will have to be more selective on when they actually get Flynn to run - because if he gets hurt, there's no one else under him that has any real game experience. So it will hopefully be a little easier to defend. LSU's offensive speed is the thing I'm most concerned about and also the bruising running style of Hester, LSU's RB. Then they bring in the speed demon Holliday and if you don't tackle him quick, he'll be by you faster than your head can turn. He runs the 100m in 10 seconds. Add in another 2 RBs and they are stacked with fresh legs thoughout the game. Throw in Early Doucett and company and we're in for a long day of stopping these guys. And we haven't really stopped anyone all year besides UT.

Honestly, the only way we can beat LSU is if we somehow force LSU to get one-dimensional by jumping on them early on the scoreboard (like the UT game). They'll revert to throwing the ball more which is not what they do best. LSU will try to do the same thing and put double-coverage on DJ Hall, so those other WRs better step it up. I look for JPW and the passing game to really take off tomorrow. Against this front 4 of LSU, I don't see us getting over 100 yards on the ground... so it's going to be in the hands of JP Wilson. The question is, can he step up to the plate again with this make-shift OL. That remains to be seen since the competition on the DL has been magnified 10-fold this week.

Last, let's keep in mind that LSU has had their share of close calls this season just as Bama has had. They beat Florida on multiple 4th-down plays, and then threw up a prayer against Auburn 2 weeks ago to come out with the win. Either one of those could have gone the other way - then there's the loss to Kentucky which stung bad. Bama's only SEC loss is to UGA in OT. Bama has taken care of business in every other game in the SEC. And Bama has yet to be blown out. So it will come down to special teams tomorrow. Field position will be VERY key in the success alabama has. If we constantly have to start deep in our own territory, we're in trouble. We're not going to be able to move the ball on that defense consistently for long drives. We need Arenas to come up big, and on the flip side, we need our special teams to do the same thing and be sound in tackling on special teams... and no STUPID penalties. We have to play smart. Let LSU make the mistakes. With a little break here or there, Bama could easily pull out a win. Saban WILL have this Alabama team prepared. Miles will have his team prepared as well, but something just doesn't sit right with LSU winning this game. No Perriloux, Miles has been very lucky in games, we're playing at home, the crowd will be the loudest it has probably ever been in Bryant-Denny Stadium, and Bama is coming off a huge win against UT. We know what's at stake and so do the Tigers.

I think at the beginning of the game, Bama will be a little intimidated by the DL until the flow of the game settles down. LSU jumps on Bama first with team speed and a turnover. At the half, LSU leads by a decent margin, but in the 2nd half, Bama will come alive and make a game out of it. Unfortunately, Bama's offense just can't overcome the powerful LSU defense. Remember, defense wins championships, and LSU has one of THE best defenses in the country. If somehow we can get the running game going, we have a shot, but I sense that Bama comes up just a hair short in the end, and Les Miles luck plays on for one more week. LSU wins a tight one by the slimmest of margins mainly because our defense will be on the field too long in this contest.... Get 'em Bama! GEAUX TIDE!! Win this game, and we'll know the Tide has definitely ARRIVED!

PREDICTION:      #17 BAMA 24 - #3 LSU 27
ACTUAL SCORE:  #17 BAMA 34 - #3 LSU 41     (BAMADOG 7-2)

Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: I knew it would be a close game and LSU's rushing defense showed up as expected. However the TOTAL lack of discipline by LSU kept Bama in this game. LSU is still the better team, but obviously with this new coaching staff, Bama is clearly on the rise and will be on top soon enough. We had the game won and lost it on a last-minute fumble by JP Wilson. Good game from Hall and Brown as well as Arenas.

BAMA vs #20 TENNESSEE PREDICTION

The 3rd Saturday of October has finally arrived, and UT is coming back to T-Town. Let's go ahead and get the booing started. Fulmer... boooo. Orange is UGLY! Boooooooo... Anyway, this should be one of the loudest games of the season in Bryant-Denny Stadium if Bama can keep it close. Let UT get away from us, and we'll end up with the same number of fans in stadium as we had at the end of the Houston game. For Pete's sake - NO ONE LEAVE the game Saturday, regardless of the score.

Now, UT comes into the game ranked #20 in the country, but Bama is right on their tails at #30. We're 5-2 with 2 close losses to UGA and FSU. So far, we haven't been blown out... We have lost 2 close ones and won 3 close ones. Of course, Houston and Arkansas shouldn't have been as close as they were due to huge leads Bama gave up in the 2nd half. But anyway, Bama has done it with offense mostly. We have had to score a lot of points. In Bama's last 6 games, we have given up 38, 26, 21, 24, and 24 points. When was the last time Bama gave up these kinds of points to the opposition??? Almost never. This is insane. We knew the defense would be depleted, and the offense has had to make up the difference in scoring 41, 23, 14, 30, and 27 points in those games. And of course, those lowest 2 totals Bama lost.

So it looks like another week that Bama will have to score at least 30+ points to win the game. We have given up a league-high 12 TD passes... that's not good when you have the top-rated QB in the conference coming to town. Ole Miss didn't even punt until the 4th quarter last Saturday. What kind of defense allows that?? It just has to get better, but with college teams not able to sign free agents like the NFL, we're pretty much stuck with what we have - a lackluster defense. How will we stop Taylor? He's #1 in the conference in receiving yards per game at 103... and 12th nationally. Our 2ndary has been giving up plays all year, so this doesn't bode well for Alabama.

Now, the bad (and good) part of these quick passes mean that Ainge will be getting rid of the ball early which means quick out passes for WR screens which we defend average at best.. and they will also throw quick slants and digs across the middle, which we have YET to defend all year. Houston ran the same stuff all day and we couldn't stop it. But that means fewer deep balls. In running all these types of plays, teams have very few chances to sack Ainge. He has only been sacked once this year, an NCAA low. Throw in the fact that Bama can't stop the run, and we're in trouble. Foster is a LOAD to tackle. Bama can't tackle, especially in the 2nd half. We can't get off blocks. As soon as we bring the safeties up, we get burned deep. And yes, Bama gets burned deep more than it should. Unless our team really gets agressive, we're going to have to live with this the rest of the year - and I don't see much changing. So count on Foster getting well over 20 carries in the game... he'll topple the 100 yard mark easily.

Now on the other side of the ball, UT has 2 true freshmen starting in the 2ndary. Those guys are good, but they are still freshmen. I'm sure the coaching staff is already aware of this and have tried to figure out a way to exploit that weakness (if it is one). Hall & company should have plenty of chances to get some big yards in this game. UT is going to stack the line. Even though their 2ndary is young, they're going to make JP Wilson throw the ball with a mad rush defense. So special teams are going to play a huge role in the game. Field position has always been a huge stat when playing against UT. For some reason, Fulmer always tends to be a bit more conservative when playing Alabama, so we need to win the field position battle and make them throw the ball - because our run defense is horrible.

So it's really going to come down to talent and the will to win. UT has more talent, that's for sure. They have had the benefit of signing full recruiting classes over the years while Bama is just now starting to get over the hump. BUT Bama does have the will to win. They have never given up in any game, and have come back in 2 of them. Last week was the 1st time in forever that we came back to win a game after trailing going into the 4th quarter. So these are good signs. Now once UT gets ahead, that's where the problem lies, especially in the 4th quarter. They will continue to run the ball - but with Bama lacking the manpower to stop the run, UT should up their record to 12-1-2 against Bama when UT is ranked and Bama isn't. Yeah - it's that bad... we can't seem to beat those Vols when they're ranked. Not much will change this year either.

In my preseason analysis/picks, I said Alabama would beat Tennessee. Unfortunately, that's without seeing Bama and UT play any games. After seeing Bama not being able to stop anyone, and after seeing UT's running game (and already good passing game) flourish the last couple of weeks, how do you beat that? UT's defense will do enough to keep us in the 20's or lower. And on the flip side, Bama's D won't keep UT below the 30's. That's just the plain crappy facts. Unless a miracle happens and the flood gates of Coach Bryant's football prowess shine down on his stadium, Bama's in for a long day. This is the meat of the schedule, and it's time to pony up... only we're playing a horse this week. Prove me wrong Bama... ROLL TIDE!

Oh, and a sidenote - how is Bama favored to win by 1 point against the Vols? Is someone in Vegas watching the same games I've been watching? Strange.... this game shouldn't be even close.

PREDICTION:      BAMA 23 - #20 TENNESSEE 37
ACTUAL SCORE:  BAMA 41 - #20 TENNESSEE 17     (BAMADOG 6-2)

Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: Wait - did I say UT 37-23? I meant Bama 37-23, right? Dang, what a game - the most complete game Bama has played all season. Maybe we're hitting stride at the right part of the season finally... Applewhite called a great game, and JPW finally had the game he's been looking for. Nice to put the YELLOW HAMMER down on the Vols and make a statement. ROLL TIDE!

BAMA vs OLE MISS PREDICTION

Flip a coin. It honestly could go either way here. Ole Miss is reeling from being winless in the SEC, and Bama barely escaped a game against Houston where we were ahead 23-0 in the 1st quarter. At one point, we were up 30-10 in the 4th. How does that crap happen? Mental lapses. That's how. We have had ENOUGH of those this year. I think after this homecoming game, Saban may have actually gotten in their heads what they need to do.

Now, right after the Houston game, I was thinking to myself that I definitely would NOT be picking Bama to win this week. And I want to actually do that. Then you look at the stats of Ole Miss where they are actually worse than us (not that that matters) on offense. They are dead last in 1/2 of the offensive categories in the SEC, but are #1 on defensive Red Zone play - which is where we definitely struggle. That is going to cause Bama problems unless we score outside the 20.

On defense, we have to stop Gree-Ellis, one of the better RBs in the SEC. This year, he hasn't done too much, so that's a positive sign for the Tide at least. BUT, everyone knows that lately, Ole Miss has been playing us very close in Oxford. We escaped 13-10 in 2005 by a walk-off game-winning 31-yd FG by Christensen. This year, I'm not so sure that this game won't resemble that one more than you know. Both offenses are struggling, and the defenses will be pumped up to stop the other side. I could see a 3-0 game. Heck, FSU could have been that had FSU not switched QBs in the 2nd half.

So to make a pick this week is really tough as my heart wants Bama to win, but Ole Miss has the home field advantage and the "nothing to lose" attitude. Bama is trying to get back in the SEC upper echelon. Even though it's Ole Miss, this would still be a step in the right direction. Lose, and the rest of the season is really going to be in limbo. I don't think Bama has a choice. Man, I'm struggling with this one bad. Bama HAS to win. Will the play-calling change? Will Wilson get rid of his ZOS (Zow Overthrow Syndrome)? Well, it all comes down to this - the Ole Miss run defense. They are horrible - period. I think they will probably stack the line and force us to throw early. But given the lack of productivity in tha air the last couple of weeks, I think this week, the problem is definitely getting addressed, and based on what Saban has said this week, things will change. I'm not sure what that is, but my gut tells me something has actually been done in practice this week to help IMPROVE this team. If so, Bama will win. If it's the same ole week of making mistakes, we'll lose by 1. It's a close one, folks, but after looking at everything, I'm sticking with my preseason prediction in this one... Bama better bring it. I'm tired of these close games!! The time is.... NOW!

PREDICTION:      BAMA 23 - OLE MISS 20
ACTUAL SCORE:  BAMA 27 - OLE MISS 24     (BAMADOG 6-1)

Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: Again, another near perfect prediction. Both teams played to win in the 1st half. In the 2nd, both teams had too many mistakes and either team could have won this game. Bama came out with the W, and thanks to instant replay to get the call right at the end of the game. ROLL TIDE!

BAMA vs HOUSTON PREDICTION

Well, it's Thursday night and I'm in Tuscaloosa now with my laptop and no internet connection. Great. Looks like the prediction will get uploaded late, plus I won't be able to upload any video or anything on Saturday morning. I also can't do any other research on Houston to make a better prediction, ... so this is a GUT prediction.

Bama has lost 2 tough games in a row. Georgia had the game won and Bama nearly won. FSU had the game pretty much all the way until the end. Nick Saban hasn't lost 3 games in a row since his Michigan State days. Hmmm... it looks like Bama better be ready to play. Saban has had 2 weeks in which to show his disgust in the offense. Given what the defense has had to overcome with the lack of offense, they have actually done their job for the most part. We're not getting a lot of pressure on the QBs, but they are keeping the scores managable. The offense needs to capitalize bigtime. The weak link is slowly becoming the offense for some reason.

So tomorrow, when Houston shows up, Bama comes out early and hopefully makes a statement. This is OUR Homecoming, and you just don't lose homecoming, or at least you shouldn't lose homecoming. I expect the defense to be pumped up, and I expect Bama to get back to running the football against a lesser-manned Houston team that lost to East Carolina last weekend. Grant and Coffee should have a big day, and hopefully, we can mix in some play-action pass and be successful. We really need to get our gamefaces on because next week, we go to Ole Miss for a very tough conference game. Call this a tune-up game or whatever, but right now, we need to get this ship straight.

Honestly, there's a chance that Bama could lose this game. We're not playing solid football at all. The offense is sputtering, overthrowing WRs, missing tackles, getting injured, etc... things just aren't flying right with the Tide right now. But with it being Houston, Bama just should NOT lose this game. If we win our last 2 games, this is an easy pick - but honestly, this is a tough one as Bama is really playing like a mediocre high school team. What do you say to that? How to make a prediction when your team is playing at a level below the opponent. If we play down to Houston, it will be another tie game at halftime with one score being the difference in the game. I think Bama will actually come out strong on offense and try to push Houston's defensive front 4 off the ball. The difference will be Grant's speed to the outside making big plays and then a defense that will hopefully get some rest in between series.

Now, Houston will be pumped up. They really think they can win this game. And you have to give it to the underdogs this year and especially last weekend - ANYTHING is possible, so Bama needs to jump on them early. I think Bama does just that and hangs on until the end. But it could still be close... here's hoping the train gets back on the Crimson Tide tracks.

PREDICTION:      BAMA 26 - HOUSTON 17
ACTUAL SCORE:  BAMA 30 - HOUSTON 24     (BAMADOG 5-1)

Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: Who knew it would be that close? Wow. One lob pass from being 3-3 instead of 4-2 on the year. Give Houston credit - they came to play and we dilly-dallied around after the 1st quarter and almost lost it. This doesn't make me feel good about the rest of the season.

#22 BAMA vs FLORIDA STATE PREDICTION

This week's game proves to be one of the toughest games of the 2007 season believe it or not. Arkansas was tough... UGA was even tougher as it turned out. LSU is still on the table, and then you have national powerhouse Florida State on your front doorstep. Now we all know that FSU is not having the type of year they have had in recent memory, but they are still good. One loss to Clemson have them out of the Top 25 right now; else they would be undefeated and in the Top 10 probably. So let's not take anything away from Florida State. They also have wins against UAB and Colorado though they struggled in each of those.

This definitely is not your 1990's Florida State team, but what FSU does have are a lot of returning starters and depth on the defense. They held Colorado to negative yards rushing and currently rank in the top 20 in rush defense. In a game where if Bama gets shut down on the ground and has to air it out, well, things really don't look good for Bama if they play like last week against Georgia. Bama's passing attack isn't really scaring anyone right now, so you can count on FSU to bring the heat come tomorrow afternoon. They will make John Parker Wilson and the Bama WRs win this game for us. Which Jekyl or Hyde team shows up is anyone's guess though. Seems like when Wilson has a bad game, he comes back with a good one... so he's due for a good one this week. But now we're on the road, posing as the Visiting team though this is a neutral game site. FSU will definitely have more fans there, and it will be loud. It's not Vandy where we occupied most of the seats.

On defense, Bama will have to blitz if we expect ANY penetration into the FSU backfield. We just don't have the athletes to get the job done with rushing just 3-4 guys. That's why Saban is really trying to get some mega-mules signed in these upcoming classes... we need that intimidation up front - something we really don't have right now. Gilberry is just a big teddy bear. Greenwood plays hard, but isn't a force. Washington doesn't have much experience. We need a beast up there... Maybe Luther Davis will be that beast in the upcoming years. Maybe someone else. But for now, we have no beast, and nobody that can force their way onto the offensive line. Maybe that's why the offense does so well in practice during the week - because we're practicing against a weaker defense. That's the only thing I can figure. But back to the game, FSU will have a tough defense. They have played irratically at times, but definitely will be a force as I stated before. I honestly think that Bama learned a lot more about themselves after UGA than Arkansas, but with the mistique of Florida State in the air, it could even overshadow Coach Saban who is a rock star in Alabama.

Weatherford is kind of like Wilson in that he hasn't been consistent - so it really comes down to defense and special teams. Bama has the advantage on special teams with FGs improving and with excellent return teams. FSU has the clear advantage on defense, as will most teams. We knew coming into the season that defense would be our problem. Nothing new there. In this game FSU will have a slight home-field advantage - I mean, seriously; the game is still played in Florida. And as we all know, defense and the running game will win football games in marquee matchups like this. FSU has the defense and both teams are about even in the running game. With that slight edge on defense, and Bama playing poorly in the passing game, and with FSU stacking the box to stop Bama's trio of RBs, I don't see Bama winning this one unless we get off to a fast start. We can't keep coming down to the 4th quarter against good teams and expect to win each week. With a not-as-good FSU team, we might still be able to do that, but on the road, it will be even tougher. DJ Hall isn't 100% either though he may state otherwise. Those quad muscles don't just heal quickly - they take time... so he'll be limited and the other WRs will have to step up. Right now, having seen both teams play, I'm actually going to stick with my preseason prediction with this one unfortunately. 3rd down will be the key, and I'm still not sure Bama's defense can hang just yet though we might actually pull it out. I expect a tight one, but one where Bama and FSU go neck in neck most of the way. Defense wins the game, and with that said, FSU definitely has the better defense. Can JPW up his game? Can Bama finally beat a big-time non-conference game in the regular season?? It hasn't happened since Penn State in 1989... I'm not sure it will happen tomorrow either because our defense just can't hang with the big guns just yet... that depth is killing us, but here's to hoping I'm dead wrong. Get 'em Tide!

PREDICTION:      #22 BAMA 20 - FLORIDA STATE 24
ACTUAL SCORE:  #22 BAMA 14 - FLORIDA STATE 21     (BAMADOG 4-1)

Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: Well, I wasn't too far off again this week. I knew JPW would have to win the game, and that's what happens when you don't execute for 80% of the game. Constantly overthrowing WRs won't win ballgames for you. Good comeback though FSU gave them that with the lax defense just to keep from giving up the quick big play. Looks like we're going backwards now...

#16 BAMA vs #23 GEORGIA PREDICTION

This week, ESPN's College Gameday show comes to town with Bama taking on the Georgia Bulldogs. After the monumental comeback victory by the Tide vs Arkansas, Alabama looks to continue their winning ways at Bryant-Denny Stadium. It's time to make Bryant-Denny a place teams don't want to go and play. This week, Bama's riding a high and should be able to sustain that momentum for the UGA game.

On the offensive side of the ball, Alabama is still looking good. With Bama's #1 WR basically doing nothing in the 4th quarter against Arkansas, other guys stepped it up - showing coach Saban that we have multiple talented weapons when we have to use them. That's huge for Bama because we already know we have a very good running game. With Bama's offensive balanced attack by Applewhite, I really do expect Bama to pull away more in the 2nd quarter of the game. I think the 1st quarter, both defenses could make a statement. Halftime, I expect Bama to be up by at least a TD. In the 2nd half, I want to see more Bama on the ground... and we shouldn't have to come from behind this time. As I said before, I believe Arkansas is really the toughest team we will have faced up to the LSU game. Now as easily as I say that, we could easily lose a game or two as well, so Bama has to be on their toes.

Last year, Georgia lost to BOTH Kentucky AND Vanderbilt, BUT then beat Auburn when Auburn was riding high. Freaky stuff, so anything can happen if we don't bring our A-game. Georgia's offense is struggling a bit this year. They put up decent numbers against WCU last week, but that was mostly in the 2nd half. It was actually a tight game a few minutes until halftime. And against South Carolina, they struggled mightily. In my opinion, South Carolina is a bit overrated, but we shall see what they do against LSU come Saturday as well. But as for UGA's offense, I don't see a whole lot there - at least nothing that Bama shouldn't be ready for.

On the defensive side of the ball, hopefully Bama's wounded will be ready to go at 100%. We need that experience at the LB position as we all saw last week against the Hogs. Mustin coming back will be huge for us. As for getting whipped on the line, Bama should have a little bit better day this week as there will be no McFadden in the backfield. Stafford is not a very mobile QB, so I expect Bama's defense to blitz a bit more than we have seen so far. Under pressure, he tends to throw a few more picks than normal, so I look for Castille or one of the boys to take one back for 6 Saturday. As for UGA's defense, it's' going to be tough to stop Bama. It's very versatile and can be used to run or pass in any situation. The one thing I'd like to see improve is the snap in shotgun formation. Late in the game last week, Caldwell kept hiking the ball down to Wilson's ankles... he claims it was due to a sore thumb - let's sort that out though. Last thing we needed in that last drive was a fumble due to a bad snap (wait - we did have one of those!).

So look for a tight game at the beginning tomorrow. Bama's Defense will hopefully force a quick turnover and get Bama on the board first. With the FG jitters disappearing, hopefully Tiffin will get back on track and hit on all cylinders. I can't see Bama losing this game unless we honestly give it away - but then again, College Gameday is in town, and we have yet to win a game where they covered our game. Here's to breaking the jinx and Bama rolling to a 4-0 record going into the Florida State game next weekend. We need this one, and I believe Saban will have this team prepared enough to put the bulldogs away... it won't be easy, but Bama gets it done.

PREDICTION:      #16 BAMA 27 - #23 GEORGIA 20
ACTUAL SCORE:  #16 BAMA 23 - #23 GEORGIA 26 OT     (BAMADOG 3-1)

Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: What a crappy night for a stagnant offense to show up. We work hard in the 4th quarter and tie the game only to throw up a goose egg on offense in overtime. Constant ends of drives on offense is what killed Bama - defense was so tired the whole game... and this is the year the offense has to carry the team. Gotta do better - FAR BETTER from here on out. Period.

BAMA vs #16 ARKANSAS PREDICTION

Funny how things work this week. Bama is ranked #28/30 in the polls while the Hogs are #16. Arkansas won the SEC West crown last year (no thanks to Bama missing all those FGs). Arkansas has a Heisman hopeful and the best running back in the country. YET - Alabama is favored by 3 to beat the Hogs. Strange, especially when you consider the rankings. Shouldn't someone IN FRONT of you, based on the DEFINITION of 'RANKINGS', be favored to actually beat you, if they are said to be better (as defined by the ranking)??? Helloooooo. If we're favored to win, even by 3, shouldn't that make us BETTER and RANKED HIGHER than the Hogs?

Well, tomorrow, a lot of light will be shed on that those facts, and we shall see if the odds-makers are correct. If so, the rankings will definitely be adjusted with Bama breaking the Top 25 for the first time this season if we pull out a win.

This game poses really only ONE big problem - how to stop McFadden and Jones. Monk is out this year, so they have very limited options to throw to. That leaves Casey Dick, McFadden, and Jones as the top playmakers. The OL has also been reshuffled and is a bit inexperienced. What Nutt plans to do is do what they tried to do all last year, especially in the SEC Championship - gimmick plays - and Bama has to be ready. The Hogs have added more plays for McFadden to be involved in because let's face it, he IS the offense along with Jones. He will line up at QB for sure with Jones on one side and a FB on the other with Dick split out. That formation (the new "horse" or "stallion" formation) will give McFadden quite a few options to move the ball and make us make the right decision to stop them. Some people don't know this, but McFadden played QB in high school, so he's got some skills in that area as he has already shown in past games. But in the horse (or whatever they call it) formation, he has the option to go either way with the ball in an option play or keep it and get short yardage if needed. He can also fake the option and go deep which is where Saban has probably been preaching to the 2ndary all week long to stay disciplined. We can't get sucked up into the run and get burned. The safeties really have to play smart or the Hogs will get big plays on us.

Another formation they will use is DMac on the outside for a WR screen which works great a lot of times - in which case he can still run or pass if it's a lateral. We just have to contain him and avoid the DMac stiffarm and take him DOWN. Our LBs are going to have to have the game of their lives because this team is going to be a RUNNING TEAM. You beat running teams at the line of scrimmage, not 10 yards downfield. So if our DBs can play solid in the 2ndary and our LBs can be sound in TACKLING, we should be able to easily handle the Hogs' offense. We did it last year and with poor coaching.

Now on the flip side, Bama's offense has shown some life this year in the running game, but has struggled in the passing game (opposite of last year strangely enough). Last year, between the 20's, Shula had this team getting up the field quick with passes all around the field. This season, we're having a little trouble, but hopefully that's with game-planning and not showing too much of our hand before the brute force of the SEC hits. I honestly think that Saban and Applewhite have a good plan to beat the Arkansas defense and that Terry Grant will have another good day on the ground though not as good as previous weeks. Grant leads the SEC in rushing, but DMac is definitely the better overall RB.

This is the game where Bama should (and better) make a statement. If we're truly 'back', then we need to win this game. For some reason, this game usually indicates how the rest of the season will go. A win here, and Bama is really looking good going into the next few tough weeks. Will we pull it out? It's hard to say. What will the kicking game do for us this year? Obviously Tiffin is still having some trouble though his misses last week were from long-range. I think Tiffin will rebound on his 1-year anniversary of his Super Blunder Game in Fayetteville. He needs it. Bama needs it.

I think Bryant-Denny is really going to be electric come tomorrow night. It's going to be loud, and honestly, I don't think that the Hogs have what it takes to stop Bama on the ground. Bama will allow the Hogs to score, but can our offense muster up enough offense to get the job done? Without being biased, quite honestly, this game is a toss-up. We have seen 1 game the Hogs have played (Troy), and we have seen Bama play 2 not-as-competitive teams. The jury is still out, but tomorrow, the verdict should be in. Can we stop the run? Can we stop the best RB in the country. My guess is, with the head coach getting this defense ready for all the gimmicks, and with the new speed we have at LB this year, I think Bama is going to play very well and move the ball on offense. Grant should have over 100 yards on the day, and DJ Hall should break the all-time receiving record at Bama previously set by Ozzie Newsome. Having a loss with DJ breaking the record and a freshman RB running for his 3rd 100+ rushing day would really suck.

Bama wins, and makes a statement, but it will be close at Halftime. Special teams will be huge and could be the difference with Arenas, DMac, and Jones all returning kicks. I'd say there will probably be at least one kick or punt returned for a TD with all that talent. I just hope it's the Tide. The Crimson nickel has been flipped, and it's Bama all the Way. ROLL TIDE!

PREDICTION:      BAMA 23 - #16 ARKANSAS 20
ACTUAL SCORE:  BAMA 41 - #16 ARKANSAS 38     (BAMADOG 3-0)

Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: What can one say besides ROLL TIDE!!! First comeback in the 4th quarter since before Shula was Head Coach!! Amazing comeback, Tide!! Now go celebrate - you earned it! And Saban is earning his paycheck the hard way now.

BAMA vs VANDERBILT PREDICTION

SEC play now hits the Bama schedule and we need to start thinking about winning the Western Division. It starts here. Game one of the SEC. If you're going to play an SEC team early, this is how you want it - Vanderbilt. Sure Vandy hasn't beaten Alabama since the mid-80's, but they have come close a few times, including last year's 10-13 loss to Bama. That was a Shula-coached team as well. But now, Vandy has a little more experience on offense, so stopping their offense will take some sound defense on our part.

Nickson and Bennett hooked up last week against Richmond 13 times for 223 yards which was good enough for 2nd-best yardage total in the NCAA after one game. Pretty impressive if you look at the numbers. But when you look at the opponent, well, it's still no SEC team - not even Mississippi State. Bama ran wild last week against WCU, but again, it wasn't against SEC competition. The difference in the 2 games is that Bama put it away early. by halftime, the game was all but over. For Vandy, they let Richmond hang around, but then finally pulled away in the 3rd/4th quarter which was stemmed by a kickoff return for TD. Hopefully Bama can play sound enough and be mature enough to hold Vandy in check. They always play sound and make few mistakes.

As for each side of the ball, I think Bama's offense will move the ball pretty well, but not easily. It's still hard to say what we can actually do against 'decent' competition. But we should be able to move the ball. Vandy will also be able to move the ball, but not quite as much due to only have 1-2 real weapons on offense - Nickson and Bennett. You can be certain that Saban will have a plan to try and keep Bennett in check and keep them from burning us deep. But quite honestly, I see Vandy burning us on at least one deep ball. Our front 7 still isn't getting the penetration Saban wants at this point, so giving Nickson more time will be all he needs to get the deep ball to Bennett. And if Bennett isn't open, Nickson will be able to use his speed to offset the rush Bama does have. So it's going to be hard to stop quite honestly.

Now defensively, if Bama can put on some pressure, that will help bigtime. Keep Nickson from thinking run and force him to make a mistake in the air and throw a pick or two. That's the key though - if we can keep Nickson from running on us on the bootlegs or breaking down on the rush, Bama has a good chance at making this a blowout.

But Vandy has a little more experience this year, so they definitely won't give up, and they'll hang with Bama till the 4th quarter. Bama's defense should bend a little, but it shouldn't break. And if Shula can beat Vandy 13-10, well, you have to hope that Saban can win by at least the same margin if not better, since he has a very improved offense from a season ago. I look for a definite Bama win, but I still never put anything past Vandy.

PREDICTION:      BAMA 27 - VANDERBILT 17
ACTUAL SCORE:  BAMA 24 - VANDERBILT 10     (BAMADOG 2-0)

Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: Overall a decent effort, but the defense and offense still need work if we're going to compete with the big dogs. Still holes in the defense as this is the 2nd week in a row that we have allowed a TD but both were called back on penalties on the other team. Special Teams are still a mixed batch with good returns but not good FG kicking.

BAMA vs WESTERN CAROLINA PREDICTION

Let's start off with a ROLL TIDE from Dallas, TX. ROOOOOOLLL TIDE ROLL!
No one except the team really knows what to expect when Bama hits the field tomorrow. So making predictions, especially for the first week is a bold move if we were playing anyone good. Luckily for the Tide, we're playing a definite win - at least it should be (knock on wood). I'm looking for the Bama defense to really surprise a lot of people. I think the new system will work just fine having the 'jack' player. We still have a bit of speed on defense. WCU will be lucky to score, but given the fact that the D still has holes, they may get something - but not enough. Bama's offense will finally be revealed which is really great. A-Day wasn't much to look at because you know they didn't want to show their hand too much. The guy I'm most excited to see is Terry Grant. The guy is fast - and I want to see him have a great year.

In Shula's first season, he had one month to prepare for WCU in the 2 teams' first meeting with each other. Bama won 52-0. These are completely two different teams, but the result should be nearly the same with Bama getting a chance to get Greg McElroy in the game along with a few other 2nd and 3rd stringers, which we need. Saban will call off the dogs in the 3rd quarter as the game is decided easily by halftime. Arenas will run a punt back for a TD - you watch. :) Bama big. But do you really think we'd lose?? I didn't think so. ROLL TIDE as the Bama Nation sees Saban in action "Live" for the first time.

PREDICTION:      BAMA 48 - WESTERN CAROLINA 7
ACTUAL SCORE:  BAMA 52 - WESTERN CAROLINA 6     (BAMADOG 1-0)

Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: Ok, I was off a grand total of 5 points, but it should have been more if we hit at least 1 of 2 other FGs. Good to start out 1-0. 1/2 the teams in country can't say that, including (ouch) Michigan. I can dig it.