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BAMADOG'S GAME PREDICTIONS
- 2009 SEASON -
Bamadog's Game Predictions | Bamadog's Take on the Games
#1 BAMA vs #2 TEXAS - BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP PREDICTION
This is the mother of all mothers - the BCS National Championship. Finally - Bama has made it back to the championship game. Going into the game, Alabama is 0-2 in its last 2 BCS Bowl appearances while Texas is 5-0 in their last 5 bowl games. Texas also won the National Championship in 2005 when they beat the much-favored USC Trojans in one of the biggest college games of all time. Vince Young led the team to a come-from-behind victory that stunned everyone, especially after all USC had to do was make a 4th-down running play work to seal the deal, but Texas stopped them to allow that final game-winning drive. I still remember it vividly.
Now, Texas is again the underdog with Alabama being the #1 team to beat. And have you been watching the bowl games so far this season? It's the bowl season of the underdog for sure. This has not been a favorite's bowl season at all. Lucky for us, those games have absolutely NOTHING to do with our game. Our game will be decided by what happens on this field, not others. And being 0-2 in our last 2 BCS bowls won't have anything to do with it either. Neither will the SEC's dominance in the National Championship game in the last few years. This game stands alone and only what happens on the field will determine the winner - not previous stats or game results of other bowls. Let's take a look at the game and see what Bama has to do to win its 13th National Championship.
Bama defense vs Texas offense: Bama's defense is one of the best in the country (but statistically, so is UT). Texas's offense has become very one-dimensional this year with McCoy again being the #2 rusher for the team. Newton has rushed for only 102 times and 513 yards. Compare that to 249 rushes (1542 yds) for Ingram and 126 (642) for Richardson. McCoy has rushed 128 times for 348 yards but that includes sacks. Obviously, he's doing most of the running plays himself and not getting a lot. Against the Alabama defense, that could be trouble for Texas. If McCoy is forced to run, he's going to get nailed left and right by Alabama's hard-hitting defense - and they DO hit hard. The Texas offense's only hope of moving the ball is to be precise on their passing routes and mandatory that they complete most of their passes. With the Alabama secondary being one of the nation's best and the speed that they possess, it will tough for Texas to continually move the ball on our defense. I look for Texas to try and strike quickly as that will be their best way to put big points up on the board. They don't have the type of offense needed to mythodically move the ball down the field. They either score quickly or punt. And Alabama having played 3 "top" QBs this season, we know how to shut down that type of game... see Arkansas (Mallet), Ole Miss (Snead - so we thought at the time), and Tim Tebow (Florida). Each quarterback was shut down even though they had big games against other teams. Thing is, Alabama is not just another team. It's a team that's built on defense and a strong running game. Unless Alabama has serious secondary breakdowns and poor coverage, they should be able to hold Texas in check for most of the game. UT will score - that's almost a given. We just to contain them and not allow big plays. If we can do that, Bama should come out on top. There's just too much speed on Bama's defense and UT isn't showing us anything we haven't seen already in a star QB.
Bama offense vs Texas defense: Bama's offense has, for most of the season, been run-happy. With the ground game of Ingram and Richardson, Alabama has compiled nearly 2200 yards between the two of them. That's pretty impressive. The key to Bama's running game is keeping fresh legs in the game. And since Richardson is such a great runner, there's not much falloff (if any) between the 2 RBs. Both run hard between the tackles, both catch balls very well, both are built to break tackles, and both DO break tackles. Texas statistically have a great defense as well, but offense in the Big 12 this year has been lacking (unlike last year). Most teams like to pass the ball a lot - OR they trail Texas by such a large margin that they totally abandon the running game altogether. That's they UT's rushing defense is so good. Now, they'll play a team that WILL run the ball right at them. They will have to stop Bama or we'll run the whole game. As good as Texas is, they will only be successful part of the time. But I think Alabama will get the best of them. There's much to be said about a RB that can run fast and won't go down. Texas hasn't faced that this season. As a matter of fact, the 2 best teame UT has faced all year are OU and Nebraska. OU was subpar, and Nebraska's offense was anemic. They had one of the worst offenses in the country. They had to rely on their defense just to make it to the Big 12 game vs Texas. Even with the great talent of Earl Thomas in UT's secondary, Bama will still be able to pick apart the Texas secondary. Of course, with a month layoff for both teams, I strongly believe it will be the running game that will benefit the Tide the most. In games such as this, defense rules, period. For instance - Boise St vs TCU last night... both were high-flying offenses, but the defenses took over as have most teams. This game shouldn't be much different with such a long layoff. Timing will be off for both teams' offenses. But timing isn't off when running the ball - just block your man. And with Texas not being able to run the ball, the Bama offense definitely has an advantage here. I look for a low-scoring first half, but a 2nd half that might see double what we see in the 1st half - once everyone gets their feet wet and comfortable again. The key - Bama needs to score early and often because Texas is a good come-from-behind team. If we can establish a good lead early, that bodes well for Alabama.
Special Teams: Special teams are probably even due to the fact that both returners are unfreaking-believable. Jordan Shipley and Arenas are probably THE best 2 returners in the college game today. Bama probably has an edge in kicking, but UT has the edge in the actual return due to Bama's lack of tackling skills on kickoffs. But Alabama seemed to solve that equation in the SEC Championship game - so hopefully that part rolls over to Pasadena. In a game like this where defenses rule, special teams and field position will be HUGE. If we keep Texas backed up, that will be key to holding down the fort. If Texas backs up Bama, at least we have the guns in the running game to move the ball out if necessary. Plus, McElroy has proven to be an asset instead of just a game manager. I'd look for at least 1 TD on a special teams play from one of the teams. These guys are just too good for it not to happen. Let's just hope it's Bama though I'm frightful of Shipley on kickoffs. It wouldn't surpise me at all to see Shipley take a kickoff back to the house in this one.
Coaching: Coaching looks to be a draw here too. Saban is one of the best coaches in America, but Mack Brown isn't chopped liver. He hasn't won 9 games in the last 14 or so years by accident. They're always right there competing for the Big 12 South championship. This year, it was easy breezy though... but they are still good. Brown also knows how to win bowl games... and he also has a national title to his name. But then, so does Saban. He has brought back Alabama from the dead in just 3 years. Last year, Alabama went to the Sugar Bowl and got destroyed by Utah - can the analysts say it enough??? Saban has already gotten the players focused. They know nothing outside of what happens on the field Thursday night will determine the outcome of the game. He had them ready for Florida, and he'll have them ready for Texas. Texas on the other hand has skated by a few games this year and should have lost the Big 12 Championship against Nebraska. If not for Nebraska's idiotic ways of kicking the ball out of bounds on the kickoff (no time ran off the clock, 40 yard line), then horse-collaring the guy on the next play (15 more yards), UT wouldn't even have a legitimate chance to win the game as the ONLY play they could have run was a hail mary on their own side of the field. It was ridiculous. You have to be lucky in some of your games to win them, but dang - THAT was BEYOND luck. Nebraska just GAVE them the game... nothing Texas did earned them that win except for the final kick. Even the officials instant-replayed the final second to give them the chance (why were no other seconds of the game reviewed???). Anyway, it's a close one, but if you just had to give an edge here, I'd say it goes to Saban because of the defensive strategy he'll have coming into the game. Muschamp will have his guys ready too, but Bama's players will be by far the more prepared athletes.
Prediction: In this type of game, most people look at how you played your most recent game. If that's the case, then Alabama beats any team in the country on Thursday night, and Texas would be nothing more than an afterthought. If this game had been played 1-2 weeks after the SEC and Big 12 Championship games, I'd probably say the same thing. But a month has flown by, and both teams have had ample time to prepare for the other... and both teams' offeses will likely be a little rusty in the air. Advantage: Bama. UT has no real running game. Bama's thrives on it with Heisman winner Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson. There's no 2 ways about it - we run the ball - we know it, and they know it... so it comes down to execution. I think Texas will play hard and hold Bama early, but as the game progresses, look for Texas' defense to slowly wear down because of the stops Bama makes on the UT offense...at least, that's the plan.
The bottom line is that Texas has struggled mightily against 1/2-average teams this year. As soon as a decent defense shows up, they struggle. They will not have faced a defense like Alabama's except for the Nebraska game, and we saw what happened there. Nebraska's defense did enough to win the game. Their offense and kicking game is what screwed them. Alabama is not Nebraska. We have played against very good teams including ex-Champion Florida and the Tim Tebow Superman Monster. We beat ranked Va. Tech, LSU, Ole Miss, and #1 Florida. Florida's defense was better than Texas', so Texas won't throw anything at us we haven't seen. Speedwise, UF was as good as anyone out there. Same goes for the other teams we played. With the exception of Tennessee and Auburn, Alabama pretty much dominated each game. In the UT game, Bama made something happen with 2 blocked FGs (our doing). In the Auburn game, we had a huge game-winning drive to stay undefeated (again, our doing, not the other team or refs). Overall, Bama has just played with more consistency and power this year than Texas. Texas needed help and also didn't play well when really challenged. Even though UT was the huge underdog a few years ago against USC, that UT team isn't playing this year - again, no relation. USC doesn't equal Bama either. So this game will hold a life of its own... and the team living at the end of the game should be Bama unless the wheels fall off. It will be competitive, by I think Bama wins by double-digits in the end. Too much defense and Ingram to stop the Tide. Texas is just lucky to be there. If Texas wins, I'll have a lot of crow to eat, huh? Strange thing is, is that I'm not usually this confident about meaningful games like this - but Bama's playing too good NOT to win. And that's what it comes down to. We won't let "Utah" happen 2 years in a row - just like we didn't let Florida happen 2 years in a row. I can't bet against the Sabanator... On Thursday night, Bama remains on top as the #1 team in the country and wins their 13th National Championship....ROLL TIDE ROLL!! BEAT THOSE HORNS!
Stat Watch Entering Game:
Alabama History - Rushing Yards in a Season
(BAMA-1) Mark Ingram - 1,542 yards (113 yds in SECC Game win - Ingram now owns the record!)
(BAMA-2) Bobby Humphrey - 1,471 yards
(BAMA-3) Shaun Alexander - 1,383 yards
SEC History - Punt Return Yards
[NCAA-1] Wes Welker's NCAA record of 1,761 for Texas Tech from 2000-03
[SEC-1/NCAA-2] UA (2006-2009) - Javier Arenas - 1,733 yards (8 yds in SECC Game win)
[SEC-2] VU (1947-1949) - Lee Nalley - 1,695 yards
Alabama History - Most FGs
(BAMA-1) Leigh Tiffin - 82 (2 in SECC Game win)
(BAMA-2) Philip Doyle - 78
(BAMA-3) Michael Proctor - 65
(BAMA-4) Van Tiffin - 59
PREDICTION: #1 BAMA 27 - #2 TEXAS 13
ACTUAL SCORE: #1 BAMA 37 - #2 TEXAS 21 (BAMADOG 13-1)
Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: 1st quarter we got the butterflies out and came up with 2 huge defensive stops - LOVED IT!. 2nd Quarter, we completely dominated up front... Trent Richardson just went over UT's per-game rushing allowed with his one run for TD. Marcel Darius is the player of the game so far though, knocking Colt McCoy out of the game then getting his own pick 6 just before halftime. Dareus gets the gameball for the 1st half of play.... 2nd half, Bama plays like crap in the 3rd quarter then pours on the defense towards the end of the 4th quarter to complete the 37-21 win. ROLL TIDE #13! Javier Arenas came within 10 yards of Wes Welker's NCAA punt return record while Tiffin ends his career with a missed PAT. Crazy stuff.
#2 BAMA vs #1 FLORIDA PREDICTION
Seriously? I'm supposed to pick THIS game?? Well, I have been right in every game this year... but then again, it helps when you have a team like Alabama that is supposed to win every game. Picking any other team besides Florida and Vanderbilt this year was practically impossible. Each of those games were a crap shoot. Heck, even last week, 2 run-of-the-mill teams from the SEC (Georgia and South Carolina) beat the ACC's 2 best schools who are competing in the ACC championship this weekend. Go figure, right? But as for the SEC Championship, it's honestly anyone's game. Last year, Bama held the lead going into the 4th quarter, then gave up 14 points to lose. One facemask call in last year's game really turned the game around - the Hightower (bogus) facemast on a 3rd down play that we stopped and we had the lead at that time. Instead, UF got 15 yards, a 1st down, and then a TD. The rest is history.
This year, both teams are undefeated and are practically mirror images of each other. The biggest difference is at the QB position. Tebow has been there, done that. He won last year in the SECC, and he also won in the National Championship game vs Oklahoma. He literally WILLS his team to win. Bama, on the other hand, has an undefeated starting QB as well, but isn't as seasoned as Tebow. He also can't run the ball like Tebow. The one area where Alabama accels is on special teams - punt returns and field goals. Kickoff coverage leaves a bit to knaw on though. But Javier Arenas could be the difference-maker on Saturday.
Bama's offense vs Florida's defense - Bama hasn't seen a defense as good as Florida's all year. Judging on how well GMac has played against good defenses this year, we could be in for a rough day if Ingram/Richardson don't have some positive consistency in the running game. Auburn gave Florida the perfect recipe for shutting down Bama's powerful running game. I expect that and a lot more come Saturday afternoon. Greg McElroy will probably have to try and win the game for Bama. I think even with a healthy Ingram and a top-quality backup in Richardson, won't be enough to keep drives alive and keep our defense off the field. That's going to be the BIGGEST key to the game - Can we sustain drives? If not, Florida will eat us alive. So the pressure really mounts on GMac's arm in this one. Coming back against Auburn is one thing, but going against the Florida Gators team speed is another. Dunlap is out for this one, and his non-presence will definitely be felt, but Florida has enough weapons on defense that not having Dunlap shouldn't slow them down. Look for GMac to be running for his life out there. I don't think the OL will be able to protect him like they need to.
Florida's offense vs Bama's defense - Like Bama, Florida hasn't played a good defense all year until now. It's like we are both playing ourselves on defense. So each day at practice, we should already know how to stop the other team, right? Wrong. We don't have Tebow on our scout team, and we don't have the horizontal speed at WR/RB that Florida has on their sweep plays. Bama's biggest problem will be in stopping TE Hernandez and WR Cooper. UF won last year without Harvin, so you know they have what it takes to do it again. Hernandez and Cooper are 2 weapons Tebow will use early and often, especially Hernandez in the option game. That triple option play they have where they can pitch the football or shovel pass it to the TE is a play of genius and very difficult to defend because they run it out of different formations. If we can shut down the option running game and keep Tebow from eating up 5-7 yard chunks at a time, we might have a chance to beat the Gators. Every team this year hasn't really had an answer to the Tebow factor. Let's just call him Superman, because he is just that. The guy can do it all. He's a QB in a RB/FB's body which is why he's such a major threat on offense. He IS the wildcat package and more. Nothing's worse than a RB that can pass the ball on trick plays - well, UF has that on every play. But I do look forward to seeing how the defense adjusts as Florida makes their changes at the line. When Tebow makes an audible, expect the usual - McClain's going to talk to the defense as well. It's the ongoing chess match that will be the SEC Championship on Saturday. Who wins is anyone's guess. This is the only game of the year Alabama has not been favored to win, and it's only by 5 points. On the flip side, this is the smallest margin the Gators have been favored to win all year too. We'll see how Vegas stacks up this week.
Special Teams: I look for Bama to have a slight edge on special teams with Arenas and Tiffin leading the way. Tiffin is one of the best kickers in the country - throw in the fact that we are playing indoors on turf, and that only benefits Tiffin's leg even more. He has also had very good success in the Dome in the past, so he could be key. Also, Arenas leads the SEC in punt return yards. He only needs 37 more punt return yards to break Welker's NCAA record broken just a few years ago. I doubt Florida will punt away from him, so if he gets a good punt, look for him to make some noise. For Florida, James was a game-breaker last year, but he has slacked off a bit this year. And Sturgis has been solid at kicker, but nothing special. The biggest problem for Alabama will be on special teams kickoff coverage. I can honestly say that I think UF will score on a Bama kickoff in this game. When we play against real speed on kickoff teams, we get burnt. Look for more of the same this weekend. Let's just hope the defense can play UF on the short field and not let them into the end zone.
Coaching: Coachingwise, I think it's a draw. Both coaches have done an exceptional job at getting their team ready all year. Urban proved what he could do last year by beating Alabama and then OU in the title game. We all know Saban can coach, but little mistakes here and there are what killed the Tide last year. Saban can't play - he can only coach and watch. And with Tebow on the other sideline, Meyer has a little more to work with in weaponry. But coachingwise, it's really a draw. 12-0 for both teams backs that up along with being #1/#2 pretty much all year long.
The last thing I want to mention is that UT's defense may have been the closest to Florida's yet Auburn put up the best against us statistically. Both games were nail-biters. Both games, Alabama found a way to win. Both games, the other team's QB wasn't Tim Tebow. And that's why Florida has the best chance to win on Saturday. With everything else being even (minus a slight edge in special teams for Bama), Tebow still is Superman and IS THE main difference between the teams. If Florida shuts down the running game of Alabama, we don't have much of a shot. I don't think Ingram will get over 100 yards on the day... but GMac might still get 200+ yards in a good effort. GMac was good against the AU pass defense, but again, with the speed he'll be playing against, I find it hard to believe his undefeated streak will continue unfortunately. Here's hoping I'm totally wrong and we kick the crap out of Florida. But in a game that could go either way, it has to go one way or the other eventually, even if in OT. Bama gets burned by Tebow in the passing game 1 too many times, and that's the difference. Hey, at least Superman will be gone next year, right? Prove me wrong Tide!! BEAT THOSE GATORS!!
On a side note note, this is exactly how I said it would go down in the preseason - Florida vs Alabama for the SEC Title - but that was a no-brainer. The real kicker is that during earlier points of the season, I would have picked Alabama to win this game as did most analysts. That was based on how each team was performing at the time. Right now, both teams are playing well, but UF still has the slight edge... but Bama CAN still pull out the win - it's just a matter of execution. Hopefully the Tide does just that... and hopefully Texas wins the Big 12. Being in Dallas, TX, I WANT to play those guys!
Stat Watch Entering Game:
Alabama History - Rushing Yards in a Season
(BAMA-1) Bobby Humphrey - 1,471 yards
(BAMA-2) Mark Ingram - 1,429 yards (30 yds in Auburn win last game)
(BAMA-3) Shaun Alexander - 1,383 yards
SEC History - Punt Return Yards
[NCAA-1] Wes Welker's NCAA record of 1,761 for Texas Tech from 2000-03
[SEC-1/NCAA-2] UA (2006-2009) - Javier Arenas - 1,725 yards (67 yds in Auburn win last game)
[SEC-2] VU (1947-1949) - Lee Nalley - 1,695 yards
Alabama History - Most FGs
(BAMA-1) Leigh Tiffin - 80 (2 in Auburn win last game)
(BAMA-2) Philip Doyle - 78
(BAMA-3) Michael Proctor - 65
(BAMA-4) Van Tiffin - 59
PREDICTION: #2 BAMA 16 - #1 FLORIDA 21
ACTUAL SCORE: #2 BAMA 32 - #1 FLORIDA 13 (BAMADOG 12-1)
Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: Good first 2 opening drives and defensive stops in the 1st quarter. Tiffin makes a 48-yd FG and misses the PAT?? C'mon, dude... you're better than that. 2nd Quarter: Good drive and great 1st-down run by GMac, but settled for Tiffin FG. 2nd Half: Total Bama DOMINATION holding UF to 0 points and tacking on another 13. Unbelievable game! ROLL TIDE ROLL!! I love being WRONG!! Who would have honestly thunk we would have won by THIS score and put up over 500 yards of offense??? Crazy game!!!
#2 BAMA vs AUBURN PREDICTION
It's finally IRON BOWL time, and we're still licking our chops after last year's 36-0 shallacking in Bryant-Denny Stadium. This year, we could see similar results but with Auburn scoring this time. This year, Alabama appears stronger overall, and special teams have been a huge plus with the exception of kickoff return coverage. Bama is solid right now - Auburn is not. In Auburn's last outing, they were beaten by a very lowly Georgia team 31-24. As a matter of fact, the least amount of points Auburn has given up all year is 13 against La Tech in the 1st game of the season. All the other games, AU is giving up 20+, but mostly in the 30's. Yes, Auburn's scoring defense is worse than pathetic, and that bodes well for Alabama. On the flip side, Alabama's defense has been stifling all year. I definitely look for more of the same on Friday. AU's offensive game isn't much better than any other team we have played this year. Arkansas, Ole Miss, South Carolina, and Va Tech all came into each game with respectable offenses, and Alabama shut them down. Auburn will be one more head on the totem pole.
Now Saban has never won in Auburn. He's 0-3 while at LSU, and 0-1 while at Alabama. It's the only SEC stadium he has not won in. Again, this will change, and it honestly won't be close in the end. As the game progresses, the opposing teams just get a huge dose of Mark Ingram in the 2nd half to put games away. And with Auburn's defense being one of the worst in the SEC, Ingram may get over 200 yards.
Ben Tate is clearly Auburn's best offensive player, so Bama will definitely be sure to key in on him for most of the game. No way does Saban allow Tate to get loose and keep the Tigers in the game. Everything will get put on Chris Todd's shoulders, and frankly, against this ball-hawking Alabama defense, I don't see them making much chinkage in the armour. Barring a total meltdown by the Alabama defense AND offense, we should come out of Auburn and Jordan-Hare Stadium with the 12th win of the season and the 2nd undefeated regular season in a row.
Lately, GMac has been hitting his WRs a lot more; Julio Jones has been healthy and getting into the end zone; Ingram just keeps chugging along; Mark Barron catches everything thrown his way; Marquise Johnson has proven to be one of the best cover corners in the conference/country this year; Arenas is deadly on punt returns; Tiffin just makes FGs; and Cody just keep plugging up the middle, forcing teams to go outside or go to the air. It's just a "perfect" type of team needed to win a national title... a bit better QB experience would be ideal, but I can live with what we have.
I like this team. I like where we're headed, and the Iron Bowl on Friday is just another step in the process. Ingram has another BIG day, and the defense will be gearing up for the Florida matchup next weekend. I like Alabama big in this one. Barring a total meltdown, it shouldn't be close.
Stat Watch Entering Game:
Alabama History - Rushing Yards in a Season
(BAMA-1) Bobby Humphrey - 1,471 yards
(BAMA-2) Mark Ingram - 1,399 yards (102 yds in UT-Chat win last game)
(BAMA-3) Shaun Alexander - 1,383 yards
SEC History - Punt Return Yards
[NCAA-1] Wes Welker's NCAA record of 1,761 for Texas Tech from 2000-03
[SEC-1] VU (1947-1949) - Lee Nalley - 1,695 yards
[SEC-2] UA (2006-2009) - Javier Arenas - 1,661 yards (68 yds in UT-Chat win last game)
Alabama History - Most FGs
(BAMA-t1) Philip Doyle - 78
(BAMA-t1) Leigh Tiffin - 78 (1 in UT-Chat win last game)
(BAMA-3) Michael Proctor - 65
(BAMA-4) Van Tiffin - 59
PREDICTION: #2 BAMA 31 - AUBURN 6
ACTUAL SCORE: #2 BAMA 26 - AUBURN 21 (BAMADOG 12-0)
Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: 1st two Auburn drives, we cover squat; after that settled down the rest of the half. GMac is holding the ball way too long, and the offense looks anemic. AU defense is definitely focused on Ingram - he hasn't gotten anything going in the 1st half. In the 2nd half, GMac is still holding teh ball too long and trying to force things. How do you not get 3rd/4th and 1??? Crap. AU got an easy long bomb TD... crap again. Great return by Javier Arenas! Squandered great field position and settled for FG. UGH. Red zone offense didn't get it done. Great interception by Barron! Good change of pace with Richardson coming in for Ingram. Red zone offense, crap again - settled for Tiffin FG who has the Bama record for most FGs in a career. Still trailing by 1 in the 4th... Not good. Great TD catch by Upchurch, but why the freaking heck are we going out of the 5-WR set for the 2-point conversion??? We never do crap out of that formation!! Hey - we tackled on the kickoff!! woo hoo! Finally! Bama knocked it down for the win!! 12-0! Give AU credit - they gave us the scare of the season. ROLL TIDE ROLL!
#2 BAMA vs UT-CHATTANOOGA PREDICTION
Ok, this is a game where you don't pick anyone BUT Alabama... and it's not a matter of if Alabama will win, but by how much? I mean, how long until Saban takes out the starters and the scoring slopes off a bit? I'm thinking the starters will be out at the end of the 2nd quarter - then in the 2nd half, Upchurch, Starr Jackson, and the other backup WRs will get some significant playing time along with the 2nd-string defense (where a TD might be given up).
Let's keep in mind that this club has lost by double figures to the likes of Elon, Georgia Southern, Furman and Appalachian State. Keep in mind that Auburn even beat Furman 63-31. Ouch. It's not looking good for the Mocs. Now for someone in the Southern Conference (SoCon), they are doing average at best; but going up against one of the best teams in the country if one of those things you just show up, collect your paycheck, accept your loss, and ride back to campus.
UTC is actually not doing too badly against weak competition with their team scoring 23.6 ppg and 323.6 total ypg. The problem with them is that they can NOT run the ball. They are near the bottom of even D-II standards (#100) at only 88 ypg. And then you go up against a defense that ranks in the top 5 in most categories in D-I, especially run defense? This game might last a while because there are going to be plenty of passes thrown in this one. Hopefully more incomplete than completed. But with all those throws comes more chances at TDs, but also interceptions - and once we know they're going to throw the ball (which they will do anyway), it could be lights out early.
B.J. Coleman (QB) will do his best, and he'll make some plays for sure - Blue (WR) is very talented on the outside. We may even have some trouble getting to him if he has a lot of 3-step drops... he currently has thrown 188 passes since being sacked last - I think the streak ends Saturday though. This defense is just built on brute force, speed, and strength. The other day, the Mocs' head coach wasn't sure how to answer the question "How will you beat Alabama?"... instead, he just said it was more like an NCAA tournament baskeball game where they are the 16 seed and Bama is the 1 seed. That's really an understatement because at least in the NCAAT, the 16 seed has a minute chance at winning. In this one, I'd give it a 0% chance of winning. Why? Too much talent for one, too much speed, and Bama just will NOT overlook anyone at this stage of the game. They will come ready to play and will play lights out against well-lesser competition.
I'm not sure how long the starters will be in, but if Ingram has any kind of game (100+), he'll be even closer to breaking the single-season rushing record still held by Bobby Humphrey. He's currently #6 all-time and is 87 yards within breaking into the #2 spot held by Shaun Alexander. I'm thinking he breaks that. This game could easily be 77-0, but Saban will call of the dogs plenty early to get the reserves a lot of needed playing time.
Stat Watch Entering Game:
Alabama History - Rushing Yards in a Season
(BAMA-1) Bobby Humphrey - 1,471 yards
(BAMA-2) Shaun Alexander - 1,383 yards
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(BAMA-6) Mark Ingram - 1,297 yards
SEC History - Punt Return Yards
[NCAA-1] Wes Welker's NCAA record of 1,761 for Texas Tech from 2000-03
[SEC-1] VU (1947-1949) - Lee Nalley - 1,695 yards
[SEC-2] UA (2006-2009) - Javier Arenas - 1,593 yards (0 yds in MSU win last game)
Alabama History - Most FGs
(1) Philip Doyle - 78
(2) Leigh Tiffin - 77 (1 in MSU win last game)
(3) Michael Proctor - 65
(4) Van Tiffin - 59
PREDICTION: #2 BAMA 56 - UT-CHATTANOOGA 7
ACTUAL SCORE: #2 BAMA 45 - UT-CHATTANOOGA 0 (BAMADOG 11-0)
Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: As figured, it was a blowout, but guessing the final score was really irrelevant. It really could have been anything. Ingram could have beated Humphrey's rushing record for sure, and Javier could have broken the SEC punt return record - but Saban decided to keep these guys on the sidelines in the 2nd half to keep them as fresh as possible for next week's Friday Iron Bowl date. This is exactly what we needed - an easy, "resting" win considering next week's grudge match at Auburn. Auburn also has a bye week this weekend to prepare for Bama. Good job guys - you really can't beat a shutout.
#2 BAMA vs MISSISSIPPI STATE PREDICTION
Aight, so this is a team that has given Alabama problems the last 2 of 3 years... but last year, the Tide turned after Shula left and Saban started getting his #1 recruiting class on the field. This year, the defense is even better, the offense is coming around after the bye week, and right now, special teams are looking as a real positive as well with Tiffin and Arenas being 2 of the top players at their given positions in the country.
Now Alabama has already clinched a spot in the SEC Championship Game, but you KNOW Coach Saban will have these guys ready to play this weekend. The team knows what's at stake. A loss against Mississippi State could spell doom for a possible national title game, even with a win against Florida in the SEC Championship.
Mullen has brought a new flavor of offense to the Bulldogs this year, but unfortunately for him, he doesn't have the athletes he had at Florida, the main one being Tim Tebow. But those guys DO have a great bruising running back named Anthony Dixon. He and Ingram are the top 2 backs in the SEC, so it will be interesting to see who comes out on top on Saturday. Dixon has 1001 yards on the season while Ingram has close to 1150 yards. Alabama has definitely been tested as of late with the defense coming up big in most games. Bama beat ranked South Carolina & LSU after starting off the season beating ranked Virginia Tech. UT gave Bama a scare in week 8, but we survived.
Does MSU have a chance at beating Alabama on Saturday? Heck yeah they do. This is the SEC - and if you don't bring your A-game each week and not respect your opponent, YOU WILL LOSE. Recall the fact that Shula's last season, we lost to State... and in Saban's first year, we lost to State, 12-17. So yes, we could lose. Those odds might not be high, but it can be done. Will it? Likely not. Alabama has proven time and time again this year that we are one of the best teams in the country, regardless of piss-poor play by the offense or special teams at times. We find a way to win, and usually, we actually dominate the game. The closest game this year was UT of course, and we found SOME way to win that one. It took 2 low kicks by UT (and both blocked) to extend the winning streak. But that's part of the game. Right now, after the LSU game, I think Alabama has semi found its stride. We took big steps with the win against LSU. GMac looked a little more comfortable even though he still threw for a pick (and nearly called for a 2nd). But he finally stretched the defense and completed some deep balls. Hopefully he continues to improve.
MSU, on the other hand, has been involved in some close games this year, including the loss to Florida - which instant replay might have changed the outcome of that game. So they WILL be ready to play; and with all those cowbells in the stands, it WILL be LOUD.
BUT, in the end, it WILL be Alabama standing tall at 10-0. There will just be too much Ingram in this battle. MSU will stack the line just like LSU and UT - but the difference is the 2ndary and LBs of Mississippi State. I really doubt they will be able to stay with the WRs of Alabama on this day. And given that the Alabama defense has stuffed the run every game this year and not allowed a 100 yard rusher, I don't see it happening Saturday. Cody will clutter up the middle of the field while Rolando McClain does his thing. Tyson Lee is going to be in a world of hurt too... he has already thrown 11 interceptions on the year and 4 TDs... I definitely look for the Tide to get 1+ interceptions in the game as well. He has thrown for nearly 1300 yards, but in the end, he'll make a mistake that'll cost MSU some drives. If Bama can stop Dixon, we should walk away from the game with a double-digit win. Let's hope we continue to get better and make our case for #1 in the country. It'll be close early, but too much Bama in the 2nd half as we pull away late.
Stat Watch Entering Game:
SEC History - Punt Return Yards
[NCAA-1] Wes Welker's NCAA record of 1,761 for Texas Tech from 2000-03
[SEC-1] VU (1947-1949) - Lee Nalley - 1,695 yards
[SEC-2] UA (2006-2009) - Javier Arenas - 1,593 yards (11 yds in LSU win last game)
Alabama History - Most FGs
(1) Philip Doyle - 78
(2) Leigh Tiffin - 76 (3 in LSU win last game)
(3) Michael Proctor - 65
(4) Van Tiffin - 59
PREDICTION: #2 BAMA 29 - MISSISSIPPI STATE 10
ACTUAL SCORE: #2 BAMA 31 - MISSISSIPPI STATE 3 (BAMADOG 10-0)
Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: Great game by everyone. GMac got back in the groove; Julio was left uncovered for a big TD; and as usual, Mark Ingram showed why he'll be in the top 3 of the Heisman race at the end of the season. Another huge game for him. The defense allowed 3 points on the day & had some REALLY great interceptions, but special teams kick coverage HAS taken a step backwards. That needs to get fixed ASAP.
#3 BAMA vs #9 L.S.U. PREDICTION
What a season so far... Bama falls to #3 in the country without even playing in a game last week while LSU dismantles powerful Tulane and remains at #9. This week will definitely be tougher for both teams as the SEC Western Championship is on the line. Bama can clinch the SEC West with a win while LSU will still have to win out against Ole Miss and Arkansas to play Florida for a 2nd time. It's going to be a tough defensive game.
Just some notes I have gathered up regarding this game:
LSU's defense ranks 7th nationally in scoring defense and 15th in total defense.
Throw out a game against Vanderbilt, and LSU has averaged 93.5 rushing yards in 4 SEC games.
The Tide has allowed an average of just 78.2 rushing yards in 5 SEC games.
LSU doesn’t get to the opposing team's QB, ranking last in the SEC in sacks.
The Tide defense leads the SEC in sacks and tackles for loss, while LSU is shockingly poor in pass protection on offense allowing a whopping 23 sacks so far.
So as you can see, it's all about the DEFENSE. And Bama and LSU's defense are strikingly similiar with very good talent at all positions. Bama probably does have a slight edge on defense, but LSU has the advantage at the WR position on offense.
LSU's DEFENSE: Stop Mark Ingram and you win the game. LSU will try and accomplish just that. With Bama's offense playing more poorly week after week after week, that's LSU's only hope of winning this game. They will try and make McElroy beat them in the air. They are already not giving up a lot of points - even Florida only mustered up 13 against them. So these guys - don't underestimate this defense they are for real, even without the powerful pass rush they have usually been known for.
LSU's OFFENSE: They are about as bad as Alabama, but in a flip-flop way. They can pass the ball, but can't run the ball. That really strikes a big question mark over my head especially given the fact that Scott is one of the biggest bruising backs in the league. How does Charles Scott not have more rushing yards after 8 games? Seriously - 459 yards all season?? In comparison, Trent Richardson has seen limited action lately due to the emergence of Ingram, and Richardson still has 377 yards on the season. Sorry, but that just puzzles the crap out of me. They have to get Charles Scott going if they expect to win the game. But if history has any say-so, he's not going to get much. Scott finally got a 100-yd game last week against Tulane. The last time Scott had a 100-yd game? Oh, it was Tulane a year earlier. So let's not put a ton of stock into the 42-0 win last week. Tulane is definitely not Alabama.
BAMA'S DEFENSE: This is Alabama's only saving grace in the last few games. It totally reminds me of 1992 all over again, at least for these last few games. We have needed big play after big play by the defense, and huge stops to keep the good guys on top. We needed 2 FG misses against UT just to keep the season ticking. Ok, that's special teams, but defensive players normally play those positions. Bama's defense IS as good as advertised, but the problem is this - the OFFENSE has to score points, preferably TDs, and we have to keep our defense off the field. THAT is what wears us down. 3-and-outs can kill a defense bigtime, even Alabama's. Against UT, we allowed our first TD since the Kentucky game because we were just wore out. With an extra week of rest, I think we'll definitely be re-engergized on Saturday. The bye week couldn't have come at a better time.
BAMA'S OFFENSE: Bama's offense will try and stretch the LSU defense, so says the coaching staff. In the last few games, teams have been playing the safeties deep, so that was why we didn't throw deep. But maybe all that changes Saturday. Maybe we'll see a few throws to Maze again... and with Jones as healthy as he has been all year, maybe we'll see him take a deep ball as well. In any case, we need to create some kind of balance on offense because LSU is going to sell out against the running game. GMac has got to be on in this one or we'll see a pick-6 for sure. LSU's defensive secondary is still for real, and it's a game we could lose if we're not very careful. I definitely look for more of the wildcat too... and I almost 95% expect a new wrinkle with the wildcat package. Now if things get real ugly quick and Bama's up by a ton of points (highly unlikely), then maybe they keep that play in their back pocket for Auburn or Florida, but I do expect a new trick play of some sort out of the wildcat package. As for Ingram, the yards he'll get on Saturday will just as tough as the ones he got against the UT defense. Everything UT put up against Bama, LSU will do the same. Ingram may get 100 yards, but again, they will be tough yards.
On Special Teams, Bama does have the advantage with Tiffin and return man Arenas, but keep your eye on Trendon Holliday. You want speed? You got speed with that guy. We have GOT to contain this guy on kickoffs and punt returns or we're in trouble. I can definitely see him taking a kickoff back to the house against our kickoff coverage, so hopefully the off-week has helped a little in that regard as well. Keep him contained!!!
Overall, it's going to be a runner's game. Ingram vs Scott/Jefferson/Shepard beast. I think LSU will definitely make some throws downfield and burn us with Lafell and Toliver - Jefferson has an exceptionally strong arm similar to Ryan Mallett. So our DBs are going to have to be ON. This is a throwing team. The problem with LSU is that they don't have a great field general for a QB. Jefferson is erratic at times, but is very similar to GMac in that he doesn't throw a lot of ints. He and GMac are almost interchangable. So you know how LSU fans feel right now.
The last key for LSU is new freshman sensation Russell Shepherd. Like Holliday, we have GOT to contain this guy. He doesn't really throw much from the QB spot, but I bet he throws one in this game to try and catch Bama off-guard. If he doesn't throw, we better fill the lanes because this guy is fast, fast, fast. We just need to do everything we can to shut down Shepherd and Scott. If we can do that, we might can pull this thing out.
Honestly, this game is too close to call. And the fact that Bama is favored in Vegas to win by 8-9 points - I say WHAT?!?!!! Are you kidding me?? We might not score 9 points in the whole game if you look at how poorly the offense has been playing as of late. We've gone from 38 to 22 to 20 to 12 and not even scoring a TD in the last game. That's some serious problem folks. And at the beginning of the season when I did my preseason analysis, I had us going undefeated. So far, so good. But I also had reservations about ANY 1 game, I just didn't know which one. It was almost UT last week. Now if we had played LSU last week, I would have picked LSU to beat us, hands down. With the bye week coming a week too late, it still came not a moment too soon. With the bye week, Alabama is able to fill up the tank with gas, get Peek back at practice this week (and hopefully will play), and Julio Jones will also be at 100%. GMac has had extra time to look at game film... Ingram has had an off-week for the bruises to heal... and more than anything else, Saban has had an extra week to prepare for this monster of a game. Given that nearly every stat in comparing the teams is identical, you have to go with the home field and bye week helping Bama get healthy. Now Alabama hasn't won against LSU in Bryant-Denny since 1999, but this year, hopefully that comes to an end.
This game will be close.... TOO CLOSE to call, and could honestly go either way. But I think with the front 7 of Alabama shutting down the running game of LSU (which was already hurting), we'll be able to force Jordan Jefferson into some hurried throws which will help keep Bama in the game and hold on in the end. On offense, I expect Greg McElroy to have a similar game that he had against UT but with an interception. LSU is too good on defense and will outsmart GMac on some play during the game. The key will be the defense and how they step up to the plate on that turnover. Points are at a premium in this one - just like UT. Get ready for Week #2 of the Bama Stress Bowl. This one will likely get eeked out at the end as well. LSU will have a chance to win, but somehow Bama gets it done.
Stat Watch Entering Game:
SEC History - Punt Return Yards
[NCAA-1] Wes Welker's NCAA record of 1,761 for Texas Tech from 2000-03
[SEC-1] VU (1947-1949) - Lee Nalley - 1,695 yards
[SEC-2] UA (2006-2009) - Javier Arenas - 1,582 yards (33 yds in UT win last game)
Alabama History - Most FGs
(1) Philip Doyle - 78
(2) Leigh Tiffin - 73 (4 in UT win last game)
(3) Michael Proctor - 65
(4) Van Tiffin - 59
PREDICTION: #3 BAMA 16 - #9 L.S.U. 13
ACTUAL SCORE: #3 BAMA 25 - #9 L.S.U. 15 (BAMADOG 9-0)
Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: Overall sloppy game, but Bama came out in the 4th quarter and pitched a 14-0 shutout to take home the win. McElroy got back in a groove while Julio Jones had his biggest day of the year. Ingram was his usual STUD self. Great to clinch the SEC West - now we just have to stay focused and not let MSU or AU trip us up on our way to a possible BCS Championship game. Offense still needs work even though we gained 450 yards in the game.
#1 BAMA vs TENNESSEE PREDICTION
It's nearly time for the '3rd Saturday in October', make it the 4th Saturday for 2009... and UT comes to town against the #1 Alabama Crimson Tide. After the win against South Carolina last weekend, the Tide bypassed Florida for the #1 spot in the AP poll. Ingram had a huge day and looks for similar success this weekend against the Vols.
This week, the Tide should get back Javier Arenas at the CB spot and on punt returns. Last week, it might not have made a difference as Marquise Johnson did exceptionally well, and Jones' returns normally got called back on penalties. But having Javey back will definitely be a plus for the Tide.
This game quite honestly will be all about defense. Crompton came out of his shell a couple of weeks ago (UT had a bye last week) against a weak Georgia defense and lit up the scoreboard. Last weekend, Greg McElroy continued into a 2-game slump but hopes to get over the hump this weekend. He's a smaart kid and knows what's at stake - so I know he's doing everything he can to get better and to make the passing game work again. Until then, the Alabama offense will rely heavily on the RBs. Ingram has had the hot hand lately, and now Bama doesn't really run by committee anymore as Ingram has really taken over as the horse of the offense. If he's rested, then he's playing.
On the flip side, the defenses for this game are going to dominate, regardless of QB play. Both QBs aren't as good as both teams would like, so I definitely look for a lot of new defensive looks from both teams' defenses to confuse the opposing teams' QB. Monte Kiffin will definitely have his defense ready, and Eric Berry will look to take any bad pass back to the house for 6. GMac will just have to know where #14 is at all times or it could be trouble for Bama.
Now UT for the season hasn't done all that great. They are 3-3 with wins over WKU, Ohio, and hapless Georgia. They have been beaten by UCLA, Florida, and Auburn. Bama on the other hand has beaten 3 ranked teams in Va. Tech, Ole Miss, and South Carolina - definitely battle-tested. UT did put up big numbers last week in the 45-19 victory over Georgia, but THIS is no Georgia defense we're talking about. The Hogs also put up 41 points against Georgia. So don't let the numbers skew your thinking. Crompton should not do that on Saturday. I'd be very surprised if they score more than 17 based on what this Alabama defense is giving up this year. In 7 games this year, the DEFENSE ALONE (not counting special teams) has only given up 6 TDs. That's less than 1 TD per game... and we haven't allowed a TD in the last 2 games, period. UT's offense isn't exactly an offense that normally lights up the scoreboard either. So given the fact that Crompton has struggled against good defenses (UF), you have to assume they're not going to put up a lot of points. And that can only mean one thing - Bama needs to score 2 TDs to win the game.
Now I'm not sure we'll be able to score 2 TDs, but even if the last 2 games gives any kind of sign, we should be able to score at least 20, right? We were stuck on 13 for most of the USC game, but edged out the cocks 20-6 in the end. There was just too much Ingram, and he couldn't be stopped. But the last 2 games, GMac has been rattled. That could have been the best thing to happen to Bama so far because we still got a W in the Win column while GMac could learn how to beat some of the better defensive teams out there. With late shifts and such, I think this will only help us in the future AND in this game vs Tennessee. I look for GMac to bounce back this week not with a stellar statline kind of day, but with one of good management. Maybe 1-2 TDs and 0-1 interceptions. If he can stay away from Eric Berry, he should be ok. Thing is, is that UT is going to put 8 men in the box and MAKE Alabama beat them in the air. They have seen McElroy struggle (same with the Tide on Crompton) and will load up. With the strategy for both defenses being practically identical, it really all comes down to special teams, the QBs, and how well the RBs can run against these 8-man fronts. Bama definitely has the edge on Special Teams. At RB, Ingram is definitely the horse among horses over Hardesty and Brown even though both of those backs are very, very good. Then at QB, I still think GMac gets the knod over Crompton, mainly because of the guys Greg has around him. Tennessee just doesn't have a lot of great weapons on offense - at least nothing that the Alabama defense shouldn't be able to handle.
So we just have to execute, and we'll be 8-0 on the season. And who knows - maybe Auburn will beat LSU, giving us a 2-game lead in the West, and maybe MSU will beat Florida which would move Alabama up to #1 in every poll next week, the bye week. Ok, so Florida likely won't lose, but you never know in this league. So look for a huge defensive matchup with Alabama coming out in the end the victor but not by much. Yards will be hard coming for both teams, but the edge in the running game and special teams gives the Tide just enough to get over the hump into the bye week unscathed. I look for a lot of FGs in this one. Red zone offense for Bama just isn't clicking right now... but then again, neither is UT's.
As for Jersey-Gate, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Kiffin and UT showed up in Orange jerseys anyway after being told not to at the beginning of the week by Mal Moore. Should that happen, they will assess a 15-yard penalty on both kickoffs to start each half. Not a really horrible penalty if you ask me, so he might just do it. I wouldn't put it past him. Make some noise this weekend, Bamafans!! UT's offense needs to hear NOTHING when it's audible time. ROLL TIDE!
Stat Watch Entering Game:
SEC History - Punt Return Yards
[NCAA-1] Wes Welker's NCAA record of 1,761 for Texas Tech from 2000-03
[SEC-1] VU (1947-1949) - Lee Nalley - 1,695 yards
[SEC-2] UA (2006-2009) - Javier Arenas - 1,549 yards (0 yds in USC win last week - 148 to go)
Alabama History - Most FGs
(1) Philip Doyle - 78
(2) Leigh Tiffin - 69 (2 in USC win last week)
(3) Michael Proctor - 65
(4) Van Tiffin - 59
PREDICTION: #1 BAMA 23 - TENNESSEE 9
ACTUAL SCORE: #1 BAMA 12 - TENNESSEE 10 (BAMADOG 8-0)
Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: Co-MVPs in this one...... You CAN NOT just give it to one guy. One without the other would be a LOSS. MVP #1: Mount Cody. 2 blocked FGs to keep Bama perfect! MVP #2: Leigh Tiffin. 4 FGs with 2 being from 49 and 50 yards to keep Bama perfect!! MVP #3: the DEFENSE. We ONLY gave up 10 points in a game that couldn't see us giving up any more points. They hold UT to 10 points and keep Bama perfect!! Again, it was a TOTAL TEAM effort minus the offense. The bye week couldn't come at a better time right now... we have GOT to get this train back on the tracks. But a win is a win is a win... and Alabama is 8-0 - bottom line. Give UT credit - they came to play and nearly came away with a win. ROLL TIDE!
#2 BAMA vs #22 SOUTH CAROLINA PREDICTION
Homecoming is finally here, and so am I. I'm back in T-Town and what's the deal with all this freaking RAIN???!!! I just left the Dallas, TX monsoons, and I get here and get swept up by a tidal wave of rain banging down on top of the UA campus. Let's hope things dry up soon because we got a fire to burn Friday night.
As for the homecoming game, it's Spurrier vs Saban. Saban has never beaten Spurrier. Saban is 0-2 against the Ole Ball Coach, but those were the days of LSU and Florida. Now it's Alabama and South Carolina - 2 completely different beasts. I would think that Saban now has the upper hand. Anyway, this game tabs 2 of the better defenses in the country. Eric Norwood is Lombardi material for the gamecocks while Alabama has its own Lombardi semifinalists as well - McClain and Cody. For the last 2 games, Alabama has been without star LB Hightower. This week, we get Jerrell Harris back, a guy that most resembles Hightower's strength, agility, and speed. We just need for his stamina and awareness to elevate as well.
This game will come down to how well the defenses play. I think given the fact that Alabama hasn't really been stopped this year gives the impression that it could be another cruising win. But don't count out USC. They can pull out some trick plays and get the ball in the end zone. They know what Bama's capable of so they'll counter with other ways to get around Alabama's speed & quickness. Really?? No not really. They don't have more speed than Alabama. I was hallucinating there for a minute. Yes, Bama's defense is going to lay the wood to South Carolina. Honestly, the only team that can beat Alabama IS ALABAMA. We would have to have a serious brain fart to lose any other game on the schedule right now. That's not to say we won't lose or can't lose, but if we do lose, it will be some kind of messed up phenomenon that causes it to happen. Teams just can't run against the Tide. Same will go with South Carolina. They have a freshman RB, Kenny Miles who finally hit the 100-yd mark against Kentucky last week. He barely got that. He'll be lucky to get 50 this week unless we fubar up the coverage and he gets some long massive run. Garcia has also made strides this year as the QB. But again, USC hasn't played a team like Alabama yet (see Mallet vs Alabama and Snead vs Alabama). Saban just does too many things for "good" QBs to pick us apart. I look for more of the same this weekend.
I think Alabama will come out and actually get the scoring going early. Red zone problems shouldn't be as much of a problem in this game - not because of what USC will do, but because of what Alabama has worked on this past week. The only reason Alabama didn't get into the red zone vs Ole Miss was just bogus circumstances. I think we'll do a bit better in the red zone this week while also keeping USC out of the end zone for most of the day. Ingram will have a big day while the inexperience in USC's defense will be outed. USC also has inexperience at the WR positions which will be cause for more problems just like last week vs Ole Miss. South Carolina will become one-dimensional and eventually it could be a blowout.
I really can't see South Carolina winning the game - I mean, honestly - can anyone REALLY see them winning the game unless we shoot ourselves in the foot? We shoot ourselves one time, ok... but it'll take a lot more than that to keep this team down. Once South Carolina goes one-dimensional (pass-only), Bama tears it up. I definitely look for some turnovers in this game and possibly a pick-6 as well. This could very well be the game Julio has some big yards in. In any case, Bama wins on homecoming. There's just too much talent on this Bama squad to lose right now. Plus, the crowd isn't going to help the visiting team at all....Bama gets back to 30+ while the defense continues to hold.
Stat Watch Entering Game:
SEC History - Punt Return Yards
[NCAA-1] Wes Welker's NCAA record of 1,761 for Texas Tech from 2000-03
[SEC-1] VU (1947-1949) - Lee Nalley - 1,695 yards
[SEC-2] UA (2006-2009) - Javier Arenas - 1,549 yards (2 yds in Ole Miss win last week - 148 to go)
Alabama History - Most FGs
(1) Philip Doyle - 78
(2) Leigh Tiffin - 67 (5 in Ole Miss win last week)
(3) Michael Proctor - 65
(4) Van Tiffin - 59
PREDICTION: #2 BAMA 37 - #22 SOUTH CAROLINA 10
ACTUAL SCORE: #2 BAMA 20 - #22 SOUTH CAROLINA 6 (BAMADOG 7-0)
Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: Ingram, Ingram, Ingram for freaking Heisman - PERIOD. I'm throwing a flag on penalties in this game - why not? There were already about a billion flags thrown; why not one more? Kudos to the defense - if you can't score, you can't win. One TD is all we would need to win the game though it would have been even more stressful at the end had that happened. The offense needs to get in gear or we could be in trouble. The defense was on the field WAY to long. Ingram = will be National Offensive Player of the Week. ROLL TIDE!
#3 BAMA vs #20 OLE MISS PREDICTION
In my preseason analysis, I figured this to be a game that Alabama would win by a whisker. My how things have changed since opening day. Alabama has lit up the scoreboard while Ole Miss has floundered in nearly every game they have played. Ole Miss is 3-1 with the loss coming against South Carolina. Last week, they defeated Vanderbilt while Alabama handled Kentucky.
Right now, Alabama looks to be in the driver's seat in the SEC West as long as we can continue winning. This game is still VERY huge since Ole Miss's lone loss is against an SEC East team. Ole Miss winning out would put them in the championship game at the end of the season, so this game is definitely one Alabama has to win. After seeing both teams play, it's definitely apparent who will win on paper. Alabama has the better offense AND defense, but keep in mind - this is Ole Miss in Oxford. In the last 4 years, Alabama has won each game, but only by a total of 13 points. Yeah - nailbiters - 3 and 4 point victories with one game going into OT. Even last year, Alabama had to hold on until an incomplete 4th down play sealed the deal for the Tide's win. This year, I think the Tide is a little more complete. McElroy is really slinging the ball around, and unlike other years, more than one guy is actually catching passes. Julio hasn't been much of a factor, and yet we still are putting up 34-point+ games. It's crazy. As long as other guys at WR step it up, we should be ok. Then at RB, Ingram and Richardson can barely be contained, that is, until last week vs Kentucky. In the first half, we couldn't get anything going, then in the 2nd half, we just broke loose. I think the same thing will happen Saturday. Ole Miss will definitely stack the box and force us to beat them in the air. It worked for a good bit of the game for Kentucky. And it could work again this weekend.
Initially, I think the nerves will set in on both sides with not a lot of scoring early. Once things settle down, I think it will be close around halftime. But as usual, I think Alabama will rise up in the 2nd half and put the game away. Ole Miss is struggling right now, but teams somehow have a knack of "coming out" when they play us and put up good numbers at times. Snead has been inconsistently bad - but this could be the game that gets him out of his shell. Do I think that will happen? No. Against Vandy, they were sloppy... against USC, they were sloppy. Snead has thrown nearly as many interceptions as TDs so far while McElroy has been very consistent at #6 in the country. Throw in the fact that Saban knows how to shut down the wildcat formation pretty well, and throw in the fact that Alabama is just playing better football, you have to pick Alabama in this one.
Special teams go to Alabama, offense to Alabama, and defense is about even. Coaching could go Ole Miss's way as you never know what Nutt will pull out of his back pocket unexpectedly (fake punt, fake kicks, whack formations, hidden runners behind the OL, etc.). We just have to be READY for whatever they throw at us and not let them catch us off-guard like they did last year (fake FG for TD). Expect the unexpected with Nutt, period. If we do that, we should be ok. Ole Miss will score, and McCluster will probably get it in the end zone. At the end of the day, Ingram, GMac and special teams will be the difference in the game. Too many weapons on offense for Bama, and just not quite enough of Ole Miss's anything to get over the hump. They're struggling too much right now and Bama has to take advantage of it.
This game WILL BE TOUGH, and I don't expect to pile up a ton of yards. Do I expect Bama to score 30+ points again? Possibly, but I wouldn't bet on it this week. But definitely look for a closer game than we have had so far this year.
Stat Watch Entering Game:
SEC History - Punt Return Yards
231 yards to break Wes Welker's NCAA record of 1,761 for Texas Tech from 2000-03
(1) VU (1947-1949) - Lee Nalley - 1,695 yards
(2) UA (2006-2009) - Javier Arenas - 1,550 yards (0 in Kentucky win last week - 151 to go to take 1st)
Alabama History - Most FGs
(1)Philip Doyle - 78
(2)Michael Proctor - 65
(3) Leigh Tiffin - 62 (1 in Kentucky win last week)
(4) Van Tiffin - 59
PREDICTION: #3 BAMA 27 - #20 OLE MISS 20
ACTUAL SCORE: #3 BAMA 22 - #20 OLE MISS 3 (BAMADOG 6-0)
Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: Give Ole Miss credit - their defense played as well as you could expect, given the fact they were out there for most of the game. They even kept the Tide under 30 points for the first time this year. The Bama defense created 5 more turnovers, but the offense couldn't punch the ball into the endzone but once on the day. Kudos to Tiffin on that note for hitting 5 of 5 FGs on the day, bringing the Tide 15 of the 22 points. Without him, who knows what would have happened. Player of the game is the whole defense. SOLID, SOLID, SOLID. 3 points given up while leaving Snead on his back for most of the game. Great game, Tide!
#3 BAMA vs KENTUCKY PREDICTION
This week, the Tide travels to Lexington, KY, to take on the Kentucky Wildcats. This is the Tide's 2nd SEC matchup of the season after defeating Arkansas last week 35-7. This week is honestly a no-brainer if we don't shoot ourselves in the foot. Alabama is 34-2-1 all-time against Kentucky, and I can't see anything changing the losing column this year either. Kentucky's best play of the game will be on kickoff returns, which they should see plenty of. Locke is one of the best return men in the country - and he's fast. So I definitely look for Kentucky to exploit the Tide special teams unit for long yardage Saturday.
Last season, Alabama escaped with a 17-14 win, and both TDs were not a result of good offense, but of defense & Special Teams. This year, THAT WILL CHANGE. The offense WILL score this year, and they'll score more than once. Kentucky's run defense is one of the worst in the SEC, and Bama hopes to do a little better than last week's outing against the Hogs. Throw in the fact that McElroy has been on fire lately completing pass after pass, and you really have to see a woodshed beating in this one. It could be interesting to start the game, but I honestly think Alabama will start out strong in this particular game. Kentucky hasn't stopped anyone in the 1st quarter in 2 years. Ingram, GMac, Jones and company could end up putting this game away early.
Now I don't see Kentucky giving up, but I think the way Alabama will mash the ball into the end zone, it's just going to tire out the UK defense even more. Then you look at Alabama's defense - even without Hightower - Alabama should own Kentucky unless they let Cobb and Locke get outside and we do something ridiculously stupid in coverage. It always seems to happen from time to time, especially when the 2nd/3rd-teamers get out there late. I think that's where you'll see any kind of Kentucky offensive score. Wait - did I just write that? Now they'll score early just because I wrote that... aight //KNOCK ON WOOD//.
Anyway, the Tide just brings an overly-talented team to the Commonwealth and that's all there is to it. It could be close early, but even if it is, Bama pull away. By halftime, I don't expect a close one as last year by any means. Alabama's depth has gotten a lot deeper & better, and Bama's offense and defense just seem to be clicking too well right now. As one of the best offense/defensive teams in the country going up against the UK basketball school of the arts, the upset Saturday in this one would be resemble the upset LA-Monroe put on the Tide a few years ago - only this year, fat chance. Look for Starr to get into the game late along with the rest of the backups - which will only help this team later on down the road. Good win for the Tide - but do you really think anyone would pick UK (seriously?) over Alabama right now? No way, man.
Alabama is consistently scoring big points while consistently holding the opposition to practically nothing. The only way UK wins is if Bama scores 10 points, and even that is pushing it. Teams JUST aren't scoring against this defense... results should be similar this week. Bama in a landslide.
Stat Watch Entering Game:
SEC History - Punt Return Yards
(1) VU (1947-1949) - Lee Nalley - 1,695 yards
(2) UA (2006-2009) - Javier Arenas - 1,547 yards (75 in Hogs win last week - 148 to go)
Alabama History - Most FGs
(1)Philip Doyle - 78
(2)Michael Proctor - 65
(3) Leigh Tiffin - 61 (none in Hogs win last week - 17 to go)
(4) Van Tiffin - 59
PREDICTION: #3 BAMA 41 - KENTUCKY 7
ACTUAL SCORE: #3 BAMA 38 - KENTUCKY 20 (BAMADOG 5-0)
Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: Clearly, the loss of Hightower was felt today vs Kentucky as the run defense just couldn't seem to get going. Alabama definitely needs to settle down because we're getting manhandled on the line on a ton of UK running plays. The offense took another full half of football to finally get into gear - we gotta speed that up. Kickoff coverage is still very weak. UK scored more than I would have guessed by a long shot, so we have plenty to work on this week before Ole Miss. Good win though.
#3 BAMA vs ARKANSAS PREDICTION
This is a game where you don't really expect an upset, BUT it could happen. The difficulty of stopping this type of team is the fact that they have a QB that has a laser for an arm. Just when you think you have the sack, he can heave it out of bounds or at the last second, to a wide-open WR down the field. Arkansas did lose to Georgia last weekend, but don't count them out for being competitive the rest of the way. Let's take a look and see what I can make of this mess...
Alabama has really played well the last 2 weeks against lesser competition. FIU and UNT really didn't prove to be much of a match overall and unlike some Alabama teams in recent history, we took care of business a little quicker than normal. By halftime, McElroy was basically done. Ingram would get the least amount of work of the 3 backs, keeping him very fresh for this week. Upchurch could also be back. Regardless, Richardson is back along with Grant, who shouldered most of the load last week. The 3-4 headed monster Alabama has is great. We've always got fresh legs in the game, and our runners always seem to run downhill, moving the pile in most cases. Throw in the fact that Ingram is a great RB for catching passes out of the backfield, and you really have a complete system with McElroy throwing the ball so well.
Also, let's keep in mind that in 2005, when Prothro was lost for the season, Alabama was never the same after that. With Julio Jones getting injuried in the early-going of FIU, Bama has essentially played 2 straight games without him - and without losing their stride. McElroy has been dead-accurate with his throws and is also completing the deep ball, something JP Wilson rarely did. With Julio Jones back this year, the Arkansas defense is not looking any better. Instead of Alabama having 11 guys to throw it to, now we have 12... and the best one at that. Last year, Julio only had 1 catch, but it was for 25 yards and a TD. Why only 1 catch? Because Alabama ran the ball all day long on the ground, so we didn't have to throw. 328 yards to be exact.
So back to 2009. This year, Ryan Mallett is the QB instead of Casey Dick. That's the main reason the Hog offense is clicking a bit better now. And seeing how they are more one-dimensional, that "should" play right into Alabama's hand. You can't complete all your passes which means you're going to get in a lot of 3rd-and-long scenarios, something Alabama tries to thrive at stopping. Also, as Arkansas is at the head of the SEC of nearly every offensive passing statistic, Alabama is equally as good or better on the defensive side. Having offense vs defense, you have to almost always choose defense - which in this case favors Alabama. About the only defensive stat the Hogs are better than the Tide in are turnover margin (even[Bama] to +3[Hogs]). So it will definitely be a chess match early. Arkansas will try and strike early like Utah did in the Sugar Bowl. The difference here is that Alabama should be able to run the ball almost at will. As long as the OL does its job, we should come out on top in the end. We just can't have McElroy on the dirt too much in this one - and with the running game flourishing, I don't see that happening.
Keep this in mind as well... Mallett is the SEC leader in passing. McElroy would be 1st OVER Mallett had he played the entire game against UNT (more than likely). Instead, his stats are very misleading about what he can really do - and in this game, he'll get to showcase it in all 4 quarters against a relevant SEC team. The bottom stat line will be interesting in this one when it's all said and done. I've been saying it all along - McElroy IS the real deal, and people are finally seeing that. Since halftime of Virginia Tech, he's 40-for-51, 553 yards, 4 TDs and no interceptions. Plus, Julio Jones (bruised knee) didn't play in the last 2 games... and GMac only played 1/2 of the UNT game. He broke 2 Alabama passing records in the meantime, and all the hype is about Mallett. I'm sure that's just the way Greg wants it. :)
Back to Mallett - he has broken Arkansas records as well (passing yards [447] and TD passes [5] in a single game), but what that means is, is that if you're getting that many opportunities to throw the ball, then your defense is either getting a ton of 3-and-outs OR they are getting shellacked as bad (or worse) than you're doing to the other team. We all know they didn't stop Georgia, so you can account quite a few of those yards to Arkansas' own defense for letting UGA score so much to get their own offense back on the field. Now comes the real deal. SEC West play. If Mallett can put up some numbers against Alabama that he did against Georgia, then hey, I'll give him props. But Georgia's defense is NOT good. Alabama's pass defense is on notice, so let's see what they can do after a week of preparation.
Last year's 49-14 score in Fayetteville probably won't happen this year. Arkansas is just a better team, and we're still trying to figure out how NOT to blow coverages from time to time in the 2ndary. Saban will have HAD to go over this time and time again this week, so we should be ready. The biggest key for the Alabama defense this week? Get Mallett out of the pocket. That's when he gets out of his comfort zone. If he stays in the pocket and has time for the play to develop (ie. the long ball), watch out Bama because we could be burnt toast. And yeah, I'll call it now - we WILL get burnt deep at least twice in this game, one for a score, and possibly one more score - but they'll get at least one to grab back some momentum early in the game if they're behind. Then we'll go to the sidelines scratching our heads again and hopefully fix it. This game shouldn't be a shootout because Alabama will still try and run the ball and slow down the game. Problem is, is that if the Hogs are THAT bad on run defense, we might score too quickly there too. Either way, we have to come out intense and take it to them.
So here's some game details... Bama will want the ball first if we win the toss. We'll go up the field and score something. Tiffin will bounce back from his 3 misses last week. The Hogs will score on Bama, period. There's no denying that. Eventually, you WILL get burnt going up against that kind of offense - it's just a matter of how many times that will happen and if they don't "forget the last play and move on." McElroy will have a big day as well, possibly hitting the 250-yd passing mark. It might be better, but I'm betting we run for more than we pass, thus cutting back GMac's yards in the air. Julio will be back in perfect form going for over 100 yards. Ingram will be the offensive player of the game. Alabama's run defense WILL stop the Hogs while the pass defense will give up around 300 or more. That's how passing offenses work - they have a ton of passing yards and very little running yards.... and given the fact that Alabama will set out to stop the run first, it's totally plausible. On special teams, we really have to settle down on kickoff return coverage. I'm sure Alabama went over it a ton more this week, so the improvement should continue. If Arkansas' Michael Smith plays, we really need to watch out for him as he's freaking Speedy Gonzalez out there. Dude's got wheels, and we don't have ANYONE on defense that will catch him if he gets outside. He's been banged-up lately, so he'll be less than 100% more than likely.
So we have a close game early, and the Hogs may very well take the lead by halftime if we get a little Mallett shell-shocked like the Utah game. But in the 2nd half, Alabama turns it around, the defense gets a little uglier, and the running game starts to click after some halftime adjustments. In my opinion, it will be closer than the experts think. The Hogs just have too much offensive firepower not to score under 20 points but Alabama has just enough on the defensive side to get the job done. You won't turn off the LCD until 00:00. Look for a very good game by both teams - let's hope Alabama can hold the Hogs at 20 pts and we get the win. Anything over 20, it could go either way. On this day, Bama gets the slight knod at home.
Stat Watch Entering Game:
SEC History - Punt Return Yards
(1) VU (1947-1949) - Lee Nalley - 1,695 yards
(2) UA (2006-2009) - Javier Arenas - 1,472 yards
Alabama History - Most FGs
(1)Philip Doyle - 78
(2)Michael Proctor - 65
(3) Leigh Tiffin - 61 (move into 3rd last week)
(4) Van Tiffin - 59
PREDICTION: #3 BAMA 34 - ARKANSAS 27
ACTUAL SCORE: #3 BAMA 35 - ARKANSAS 7 (BAMADOG 4-0)
Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: I figured the Hogs would definitely score more points and get at least more yards, but I guess the Bama D decided to show up. Now if we can get Reamer to stop knocking people in the back on punt returns, we might be ok. Crap. That's just stupid, period. The biggest loss of the day could be Hightower depending on how his knee checks out from the MRI later on... we can't afford to lose him AT ALL. Great game Richardson, GMac, and Julio... Richardson is a horse, and GMac proved to be the QB ESPN should have been talking about all week - not Ryan Mallet. Pulease, help me Rhonda - I'll take McElroy any day of the week. Dude's got some sweet long balls and nice touch. ROLL TIDE!
#4 BAMA vs NORTH TEXAS PREDICTION
North Texas comes to T-Town this weekend, and McElroy gets to play against his old high school coach, Todd Dodge, at Southlake-Carroll where he won a state title back in 2005. This should give Alabama some insight on what Coach Dodge like to do in certain game situations. On the flip side, I don't think Saban really needs McElroy's input, but I'm sure he'll get some info for sure.
The last time Alabama played UNT was in 2002, when Fran was head coach. Alabama won 33-7 that year in dominating fashion. This year, UNT comes into the game without its starter at QB while Alabama comes into the game with out WR Julio Jones and RB Roy Upchurch. That leaves the backup QB for UNT, Nathan Tune, to go up against a fierce Alabama defense that's only giving up less than 2 yards per carry and less than 200 yards of offense per game. UNT has played against Ohio and Ball State and split the 2 games. Only 20 points have been scored in regulation against these 2 teams - that doesn't bode well for the UNT offense on Saturday, especially with a backup and very inexperienced QB. Ouch. UNT will try and go to their strength which is running the football with Cam Montgomery. Wait - isn't that Alabama's specialty too? Uh oh. It could be a long day for the Mean Green.
Now Montgomery is still the real deal. The problem is the defense he is going up against. He has rushed for 237 yards and 2 TDs so far this season but against lesser defenses. It will be interesting to see how Bama tries to contain this guy. If Alabama can shut down Montgomery, we might see multiple interceptions or fumbles leading to Alabama defensive TDs. I'd say we'll get at least one for sure (ok, 99% sure). The other downside for UNT is the lack of playmaking by their WRs. Mike Outlaw dropped 2 potential game-winners last week against Ohio, and they have only made one "explosive" play for the 2 combined games. There will be plenty of nickel/dime defense Saturday for sure. Alabama's front 3-4 should be able to take care of business without a ton of extra pressure.
With all that D comes a lot of punting situations where Bama should excel. Look for Arenas to have a good ay returning the ball if they don't kick it out of bounds. On a separate note, I'll be keeping up with Arenas' return yards in the upcoming weeks as he is close to breaking the all-time SEC return yards record (see below).
On offense, Alabama is going to run, run, and run some more. Alabama's running game doesn't appear to be hurt a lot with the emergence of Trent Richardson last week. Ingram should be good to go as well, and both of these guys are the leading rushers on the year with a combined 334 yards, 4 TDs,and over 6 yards per carry. Impressive. In the receiving game, Jones will be out, but again, McElroy's biggest targets have actually been McCoy and Ingram so far. If Jones plays, it will be icing on the cake. If not, we'll hit the other guys. Maze, Peek, McCoy, Alexander all have the potential to make plays, and so far, each has proved they could hang in the last 2 games.
In the special teams area, um..... do I really need to clarify what needs fixing? And my question is, what is the NCAA record for the most consecutive games to have a TD run back on you on kickoffs. Surely it can't be more than 2, right??? If Alabama lets it happen again, I would bet money that we would have the record for sure. Maybe someone could look up that stat. Other aspects of special teams are doing well. Tiffin is 2nd in the country in FGs, and Fitzgerald is getting good lift on his punts. They are going around 46 yards right now, which is improved over last year. One other stat I'll be monitoring is Tiffin's FG kicking ranking in Alabama history. Currently, he is tied with his father Van at 59 FGs in his career.
As for this game, I can see a big win ahead for Alabama. With the lack of an experienced QB on the UNT side, I can't honestly see them scoring a single point unless we just fubar something crazy and hand them a gift (ie. Kickoff Return???) or allow it late in the game when the starters are out... But early in the season, it's easy for a busted coverage to happen even in a game like this. GMac could throw an easy pick-6 as well, so I'll give them some love but not much. Jones being out will slow the offense a little but not enough to give UNT a chance. Darrah and Jackson get some meaningful snaps in the 2nd half, and with that, the scoring could slack off a little due to the 1st string not being in. If the starters played the whole way through, it might be 63-3... but with games like this, Bama doesn't usually blow teams out by halftime. Tomorrow might be different due to the circumstances. Bama big in any case. Double-digit score (Bama) against single-digit (score). It won't be close, even if we do mess with Texas. ROLL TIDE.
Stat Watch Entering Game:
SEC History - Punt Return Yards
(1) VU (1947-1949) - Lee Nalley - 1,695 yards
(2) UA (2006-2009) - Javier Arenas - 1,382 yards
Alabama History - Most FGs
(1)Philip Doyle - 78
(2)Michael Proctor - 65
(t3) Van Tiffin - 59
(t3) Leigh Tiffin - 59
PREDICTION: #4 BAMA 48 - NORTH TEXAS 7
ACTUAL SCORE: #4 BAMA 53 - NORTH TEXAS 7 (BAMADOG 3-0)
Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: With the exception of 2 missed PATs, Alabama had about as good of a complete game as you could have. Of course, it was expected against this UNT team. Great to see Starr Jackson get to play for the exact amount of time GMac was in. Running game was strong. Kickoff coverage still needs help though, but did improve. Next Up, Arkansas. Now the fun really begins. And wow - another close prediction. Keep up the good work, me. :)
#4 BAMA vs FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL PREDICTION
As much as Saban will downplay this game and "respect" FIU, it really shouldn't be close. Alabama just doesn't lose home openers, and especially to Sun Belt Conference foes who had a losing season the year before.
Hilton, FIU's only realy playmaker, is one of the best WRs in the country. Other than that, their offense will need busts in the Alabama defensive coverage in order to move up the field and score. Now it's only the 2nd game, so I expect to still see a few mistakes from Alabama, but moreso from Florida International. The thing is, is that this is FIU's FIRST game of the season while Bama already has a top-10 win under its belt. That can't fare too well for unproven FIU.
Look for FIU to play hard in the first half and possibly even keep it close to some degree. But by halftime, Bama should be up by 14+ if we play like we should. Conditioning and pure athletic talent will keep the Tide up in the 2nd half. And if all goes well, we'll see a lot of Starr Jackson and Trent Richardson in the 4th quarter. Bama's defense is just too tough while FIU is just getting their feet wet - and on the ROAD. Pass GO, Collect your $200, but don't expect to come out of Bryant-Denny with a win, FIU. This is our house. Short n Sweet, eh?
PREDICTION: #4 BAMA 41 - FIU 13
ACTUAL SCORE: #4 BAMA 40 - FIU 14 (BAMADOG 2-0)
Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: Wow - what a prediction. I knew we'd give up some stupid crap... we're 2-for-2 on allowing a kickoff for TD. Maybe we should just squib-kick it every time now. Richardson is a beast. McCoy came up huge. McElroy shows why he's the man at QB. Fewer penalties is a good sign too. Tiffin did well, but kickoff coverage and defense still needs some help as we couldn't close the deal by halftime.
#5 BAMA vs #7 VIRGINIA TECH PREDICTION
Finally. One day until the kickoff of Alabama's 2009 football season. I'm ready, I'm ready, I'm ready!!
Alabama kicks off the 2009 season against the #7 team in America - the Virginia Tech Hokies, coached by Frank Beamer. It should be a classic matchup and as you may have already heard, possibly a defensive battle. As crazy as this sport is, obviously either team could win. But looking at all the intricacies of each team leads me to believe it might not be close - nor a low-scoring affair.
On offense, we have a new QB and 3 out of 5 new offensive linemen. People are all worried about Greg McElroy being the starter. If you haven't heard it before, hear it now:
1. Greg McElroy played at Southlake-Carroll HS in the Dallas, TX, area. 1st off, that's the mecca of high schools when it comes to football pedigree in this area.
2. Greg played behind Chase Daniel (ex-Missouri QB) until Greg was a Senior. So he only had ONE year to play as the starter. He broke all of Chase's records and Texas state records STILL stand in Greg McElroy's name.
3. McElroy was offered a scholarship by Texas Tech. Hello.... anyone know of a Texas Tech QB that hasn't thrown the ball around lately?? No. He would have been next in line this year to start for the Red Raiders had Mike Shula not swiped him up after we beat Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl back in 2005. Yes, we still have Shula recruits on the roster. :)
4. McElroy lead his HS team to a 5A State championship in his senior season. That's the highest classification of HS in TX by the way.
5. McElroy KNOWS football. He KNOWS the game. He KNOWS this offense. Heck, he's starting his 4th year at Alabama, people (he redshirted his Freshman season). He's smart too. And he can't wait to get out there and run this offense.
I've been waiting on this day for a while. As good as JPW's stats were in his career, I have thought that once McElroy was the starter, things would definitely open up. JPW's problem was that he couldn't complete the deep ball consistently. McElroy is more of a pure passer and can make those throws (we'll see, right?). The fade route to Marquise Maze at the end of the Auburn game last year was a good example. He just has that "passer's touch" on the ball that all good QBs have.
Having said all that, it really comes down to the Bama OL. Our problems have always stemmed from having Mike Johnson play Tackle. Well, Slow-foot Johnson is luckily playing Guard where he should be, so hopefully the guys we have out there now - Carpenter & Davis - will do their jobs well and keep the speedy DEs from VT off of McElroy's back. If they can do that, Bama should have quite a bit of success against the Hokies.
The guys that I look to shine on Saturday night will be Julio Jones, Colin Peek, and Greg McElroy. I think both teams will struggle a bit to get the run going, so Bama's passing game will have to flourish in order to win. Our big guys are bigger than their big guys - they just have to play together in a live game - something we haven't seen yet. Forget the Sugar Bowl - this line has actually practiced without Smith, so we'll be better prepared and not have Johnson playing tackle.
On defense, Alabama brings back a slew of talent. Cody is going to clog up the middle, and then with Alabama's speed on the corners and at LB (McClain - watch out - he WILL hit you!), it will be tough going to run the ball. Like VT, Alabama will try and force Taylor to beat them. He threw 2 TDs and 7 ints last season but rushed for over 700 yards, so we will really need to make sure Taylor doesn't get in the open field.
Tyrod will be handing off to 3 unused RBs with Evans out this year, not to mention the starting FB has now been declared out for the first game due to suspension. The Alabama defense has to be smacking their chops right now. The #1 RB is Ryan Williams. He's a redshirt freshman with no experience, but he's actually pretty good based on comments out of the Hokies camp. But once he gets a breather, VT likely won't be running the ball as there will be significant drop-off after Williams leaves the game. More than likely Saban will play a lot of nickel packages, having a spy on Tyrod Taylor. They have no real playmakers at WR on offense, and that's really where the difference in these two teams lie. Alabama's corners and defensive experience will be able to shut down the Hokie WRs unless they just have some serious brain fart during the game. No one really stands out, and like I said - their starting RB and FB are both out. If VT wins, it will be off the back of Taylor. I just don't see it happening.
On special teams, it might be a wash. VT prides itself with its special teams work getting labeled the name "Beamer Ball", but Alabama's not to shabby either. We have serious speed on the outside rush against punters, and we have one of THE best punt returners in college football in Arenas. If Brent Bowden doesn't get some air under his punts tomorrow night, Arenas is going to be running all day. We also have a senior kicker, punter, holder, and snapper. And we already know Tiffin has the leg to kick the long ball, especially on a rug as he did last year vs Clemson (52-yarder). So if the defenses do hold, I look for quite a few FG attempts by Tiffin.
So basically it comes down to 2 teams who are "ranked" strangely enough both being 0-0. I'd honestly like to see teams get ranked about 4-5 games into the season. No one has played. As far as we know, VT could be the Bama of 2000 and stink it up the rest of the year. It's just a number - so that's why Alabama has to come out smokin and just put the "hurt on" VT with the opening kickoff. My guess is that Alabama will get the ball first. VT wins the toss, they'll pick defense. Alabama wins the toss, we'll pick offense just like last year. The thought here is try and get on top first. Don't give the other team a chance to start the game with the lead.
I can't wait until gametime... I look for Alabama to really stuff VT in the opening half of the game. I look for McElroy to hit Julio on some balls that go for big yardage. It could be a defensive struggle, but I really look for this team to click if the OL can block for McElroy. Now if McElroy gets knocked out of the game and Jackson goes in, well, things will get a little murky in the water, that's for sure. All that offensive firepower goes out the window in my book. He's just not as polished as he needs to be right now.
Bama's up at halftime and continues to dominate the game playing field position. VT will stop Alabama a few times and the Tide will settle for FG attempts. Look for Tiffin to have a good start to his senior season, and look for the Bama defense to really get after Taylor and the inexperienced offense of VT. This SHOULD be a big win for Alabama. Why? Cuz I said it. ROLL TIDE!
PREDICTION: #5 BAMA 30 - #7 VIRGINIA TECH 10
ACTUAL SCORE: #5 BAMA 34 - #7 VIRGINIA TECH 24 (BAMADOG 1-0)
Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: It wasn't as much as a defensive game as most people thought. I didn't think it would be because of the execution we saw tonight in the 4th quarter. Bama WAS defensive holding VT to under 200 yds of total offense. Bama's offense racked up a whopping 500 yds of offense, most of which came in the 2nd half. I look for good things to come for Bama this season. This definitely puts Bama in the national spotlight even more. Great game, though DEFINITELY STRESSFUL for 3 quarters. VT's score is bigtime skewed due to poor kickoff coverage by Alabama. Remove retard special teams plays and my prediction is almost on the money. Other than that, way to kick that Hokie butt!
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