2009 EARLY SEASON GAME PREDICTIONS & TEAM ANALYSIS

Finally. The season we've all been waiting for... or was that last season? No. It ended on a sour note, so yeah, it's this season. The schedule is in our favor with all of the "tough" games at home except Ole Miss. That talented #1 class is a year older. The defense should be even more stifling this year. So it comes down to the OL and Greg McElroy. We lost Coffee and Smith to the NFL along with Davis and Caldwell on the OL, but more than competent backups are filling in those spots. Don't worry Tide Nation: We'll actually have practiced without Smith this go-around. And hopefully, we don't have to play musical offensive lineman at the last minute as we did in the Sugar Bowl. What a mess. But now on to this season....

A week prior to kickoff, things look pretty good. Alabama is ranked at an impressive #5 and looks to have a good run at the national title if everything falls into place. It all starts with the big one in Atlanta as it did last year - Virginia Tech. Let's take an early look at what we can expect to see this season...

	vs #7 Virginia Tech (in Atlanta) - Both Alabama and VT have high asperations this season. Alabama played in the SECCG and Virginia Tech won the mediocre ACC and went to the Orange Bowl. On paper, Alabama should win. Both defenses should be very good, but given the fact that Alabama fans travel a lot better (and seem to find the tickets), and it's the first game of the season for a pretty experienced team, I have to give Alabama the nod here. VT has been lackluster in the last couple of years, so the Alabama defense should be able to work wonders there. When Bama is on offense, I think we'll have a bit more talent to get things done. It's also McElroy's first game as the starter in college. If he does anything that he did in high school, he's going to be a great one. The OL should be good enough to hold off the VT defense as well. Throw in special teams and that could be the difference in the game. Now VT has always prided themselves on special teams. BUT, Alabama has really come on strong the last couple of years in that part of the game too. Look for a few FG attempts by both teams as the defense looks to take over. Playing on a rug, we might even see another 50+ yarder like last year. Low-scoring game by VT, while Bama gets the job done with superior talent. Bamadog's Early Pick: BAMA
	vs Florida International - The Golden Panthers won 1 game in 2007. They won 5 last year. I don't look for an immediate 9-10 win season in the Sun Belt, and I sure don't see them beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa. The have all 5 OL back along with one of the best WRs in the country in Hilton (25 yds/rec). Of course, these stats come against the powerhouse Sun Belt conference so don't get too worried (I know you're not worried). BUT still, don't ever underestimate a team - NEVER. Remember LA-Monroe of 2007...... Keep it real, Bama. Bamadog's Early Pick: BAMA
	vs North Texas - If you thought Florida Int'l was bad, you might not want to witness this massacre - the North Texas Riptide Massacre. Ouch. The coach's (former Southlake HS coach) son is now taking over at QB and looks to make some noise with 5 OL back from last year. The problem? The Alabama defense as usual. Their biggest threat at WR last year is now gone (Fitzgerald 113 catches), and if that's not bad enough, their defense last year allowed 48 ppg and 483 yds/game. Playing in Alabama's backyard definitely won't spell out a win for the Mean Green. Just show up, take your shutout beating, collect your paycheck, and regroup back in Denton, TX. I'll be here waitin on ya. Bamadog's Early Pick: BAMA
	vs Arkansas - Alabama took the Hogs out to the woodshed last year in Fayetteville. I don't expect that to happen again this year though it could. As usual, this game will have huge implications on how each team does the rest of the season. It always does for some reason. For one, it's the SEC opener. Two, you win and you're on top; lose, and you already have to work your way out of a hole. The Hogs come back with a new QB in Ryan Mallet who transfered from Michigan. He's got a rifle for an arm too. The problem is that he doesn't have a lot of talent to throw it to. On the ground, Michael Smith emerged as a real threat and has great speed. He ran for over 1000 yards and 8 TDs last season. If we can shut down Smith (we should), then the rest will be history. The Hog defense allowed a whopping 31 ppg last year with the Tide aiding in that number with a 49-14 score. After the VT game, this is how we need to open the season at home: open a can of whoop-hog and take care of business. Maybe in a year or 2, the Hogs might be back, but not now. There's just too much talent on Bama's side right now and we're playing at home. Bamadog's Early Pick: BAMA
	at Kentucky - UK came close (sort of) to beating Alabama last year. The game was never really in doubt, and Kentucky had to get an on-sides kick to even make it interesting. That was the only game Alabama didn't score an offensive TD and yet still won. It was also the lowest output of the season (tied with the Sugar Bowl 17 pts). I look for that number to increase this year though UK will do everything they can to pull off the upset. The biggest challenge in this game will be Alabama's OL vs UK's DL. Stupid mistakes cost us some yards last year, so we need to get our heads on straight for this one. Hartline also proved he could make plays when he needed to. It could be a closer game that most anticipate, but honestly, I can't see Alabama losing this one either. Bamadog's Early Pick: BAMA
	at Ole Miss - This is where the fun really begins and the shape of the SEC West will start to take shape. It's the 1st of the big 3 matchups in the West. Bama/LSU and OM/LSU are obviously the other two. This year, Alabama travels to Oxford. The last time Bama lost there was when Manning was at QB. Snead proved himself to be the preseason #2 QB behind Tebow in the SEC. The problem here is that people haven't seen McElroy yet and what he can do. And though most people don't really KNOW McElroy other than a backup, I will say he's the real deal - and he'll prove it in this game if he hasn't already. This game could honestly go either way. Last year, this was one of Alabama's closest wins. If Alabama doesn't stop a 4th and inches running play at the end of the game, who knows what might have happened. But I look for Nutt to pull out the kitchen sink in this one. His Wild Rebel formations didn't really fool Bama last year. But he's always got something up his sleeve, and his teams NEVER give up. Period. It could go either way, depending on how Alabama's OL is playing at this point of the season. And assuming the team remains healthy, Alabama wins a close one. Ole Miss finished the season strong last year, so Bama better watch out. Flip a coin for this game. Bama, by a whisker... Bamadog's Early Pick: BAMA
	vs South Carolina (HC) - It's homecoming and the Bamadog will be attending this weekend as usual. Look for the hardhat out on the field for the pregame alumni band show. As for the game, Steve Spurrier comes to town with one of the more questionable teams I can remember. He's got a Jekyl and Hyde team of sorts. They beat someone they're not supposed to beat, then lose to a nobody. Strange stuff. Garcia will remain at QB but that isn't saying much. He's been jerked around more than jerk gamecock chicken. Spurrier just won't accept crappy QB play. The problem is that he doesn't have that star QB like he did at Florida. Showing up against one of the nation's best defenses isn't the best recipe for a win in that situation either. They could be improved over last year's team, but the Tide will either want to keep the winning streak alive or bounce back after losing in Oxford the week before. All is not lost, and this is a game Bama can ill-afford to lose to stay in the hunt. Bama big. Bamadog's Early Pick: BAMA
	vs Tennessee - Did I just say "Bama big" in my previous pick. It could very well be a repeat here in T-town. Kiffin is already disliked after all of his preseason comments... now it's time to pour some salt into the wound. Unless they have a few more Eric Berry's on the team, UT is going to have a long day ahead of them. They just don't have enough athletes to compete right now. Throw in the 1st-year hex in the SEC and you see where this is going. Even Saban had a rough first year (but never lost by more than a TD) with Shula's recruits. Monte will make UTs defense better but not good enough to shut down Julio and the Gang. Bamadog's Early Pick: BAMA
	vs L.S.U. - Gone is the "TD the other way" QB. In is Jordan Jefferson at QB for LSU. With a decent QB, LSU would have had a chance to win the SEC West last year. This year, it should come down to Alabama and LSU. Until Ole Miss SHOWS me something and actually gets to the championship, I just can't pick em. We get the Tigers in Tuscaloosa where there will be anything but a shortage of talent. Miles and his gamblin' ways will try and find a way to beat Alabama. They have one of the best offensive threats in the SEC in RB Scott. He's like a freight train. Not sure why they didn't go to him more often last year. They also picked up DC John Chavis from UT in the off-season. That isn't really much of an upgrade if you ask me. This is THE game of the 2009 season as it was last year. Whoever wins this game will likely head to the SECC Game in Atlanta. It's too early to call, but here are some points: the home team loses more than it wins in this series; Alabama's special teams are better; LSU's offense will likely be better; Alabama's defense will likely be better; Coaching - well it's a toss up. Both can get the most out of their players when it's time to play. Give the home crowd a slight advantage this year. Last year, I called LSU to win it - but the Tide might be turning now. I can see the Tigers winning but I think there will just be too much Bama defense to keep us in a close game. Bamadog's Early Pick: BAMA
	at Mississippi State - No more Croom. Now we have Dan Mullen to deal with. Fortunately for everyone in the SEC West, he doesn't have the athletes he had at UF. So while he's trying to recruit people to go to (cough cough) Starkville, MS, he's going to take his licks. This week is no exception. Expect another beating though it might not be as bad as last year. Bamadog's Early Pick: BAMA
	vs U.T.-Chattanooga - We have hit the tri-fecta of the non-conference weakling schedule. FIU, UNT, and now the Mocs. Puleeeeeease. HELP ME RHONDA! Sure we had VT to start the season, but this is ridiculous. An opponent from the Southern conference.....??? At least slip in a Toledo or something here. UTC??? Blowout city here. Rest the starters for the Iron Bowl next week. Bamadog's Early Pick: BAMA
	at Auburn - Mr. "5-19" Chizik better get ready for this one. Sure, he has coached at Auburn before, but he wasn't thrown into THIS fire. Lack of talent and one of the worst seasons in memory at AU occurred in 2008. The continuation now runs into 2009. There isn't a whole lot more for this year's team either. Sure, Burns will have a bit more experience, but seriously - is he REALLY the guy for the job? Burns left, Burns right, Burns up the middle, punt. C'mon. What kind of an offense is that?? It's no wonder you didn't score last year in the Iron Bowl. I expect nothing less in this year's game. AU might actually score this year but it won't be much. At this point of the season, Alabama's defense is going to be rockin'. Everything is clicking in the 2ndary, and hopefully by now, we have wrapped up the SEC West. If not, this could be a huge game that AU would love to spoil for Bama. In any case, Bama wins big with too much talent and not enough coaching on the other side. Bama extends the streak and keeps rollin'. Bamadog's Early Pick: BAMA

BAMADOG'S PROJECTED FINAL SEC STANDINGS
EAST Florida Georgia Kentucky S. Carolina Tennessee Vanderbilt	WEST Alabama LSU Ole Miss Arkansas Auburn Miss St.
SEC CHAMPIONSHIP - FLORIDA -

As usual, I'm trying to keep it real and not look through my crimson colored glasses. VT, LSU, and Ole Miss are the only 3 games I can see as blemishes to our record. But when it comes down to it, DEFENSE wins championships...and Alabama will have THE best defense in the West, not to mention great special teams play with Seniors leading the way. In the end, Alabama meets UF for yet another rematch in the SECC Game. And as I said before, defense wins championships. UF does have a better defense than Alabama right now. They lost no one. And they got the job done last year too. With a more inexperienced OL this year for Bama, the outcome might not even be as close - but we'll see how things gel. I could be totally wrong here.

Also remember that they have freaking Superman Tebow on their team, and he literally wills his team to win. It's crazy. Let's just hope that if they lose once next year, it will be to Alabama - then we don't have to worry about a speech from Tebow for the remainder of the season. He can play as hard as he wants in the bowl game if they lose. :) Ultimately, it will come down to which offense can move the ball on the other team's defense. Florida has the playmakers right now to do that while Bama is just a whisker behind (but not for 2010). This year is unfortunately UF's year again, and I can see them winning it all. That leaves Alabama in a BCS bowl again - likely the Sugar Bowl. How weird would it be to play Utah again....... stranger things have happened.

Now........Let's bring on next Saturday! I'm ready to see the Tide Roll over the Hokies in Atlanta!!

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The Bamadog