#15 BAMA vs #7 MICHIGAN STATE PREDICTION

Bowl games are really hard to judge. How will the teams respond after these long layoffs? Which players will become ineligible due to grades or other factors? Who gets injured along the way? Who has more to prove? Is a team down after an end-of-season loss? 2 years ago, everyone would have thought Alabama would have crushed Utah, but that didn't happen. Bama got their you-know-whats handed to them. Last year, we had something to play for, and we took care of business. This year, there's not much to play for except pride, a 10-win season, and a good feeling going into spring ball. I think that's good enough for me, not to mention the fact that this is an audition for the NFL as well for anyone deciding to jump ship early (and of course the seniors).

These 2 teams are actually pretty similar and have similar offenses. Michigan has played a slightly weaker schedule but is still a strong team. They needed a little luck to get some wins while Bama wasn't as fortunate to get that luck this year. I think that pound for pound, Alabama has the better team overall and definitely the most talent between the two. But how execution goes is another thing. Cousins has done very well this year but finished the year on a down note with the interceptions. Bama finished weak by losing a heartbreaker to Auburn. Let's see how both of these teams bounce back after "disappointing" finishes to their seasons. MSU was hoping to be in the BCS but that didn't happen either.

As for the offenses, I think Alabama probably has the upper hand due to the experience factor. MSU has put up similar stats as the Tide, but against weaker competition. I expect more of the same from Alabama - balance. We'll run Ingram/Richardson as long as we can while mixing in some play-action. That's where Julio Jones comes in to make his statement. No one on MSU's defense can honestly cover Julio. It will be up to McElroy to get him the ball and our OL to protect him - something we didn't do very well in the Iron Bowl. Of course, having Barrett Jones back at RG will help a lot. I look for much better play up front against the MSU defense.

Bama's defense going up against MSU's offense is basically them going up against Alabama's offense. With the offenses being so similar we might not see a ton of points. But then again, this is bowl season where Army beats SMU and Nebraska loses to freaking Washington (seriously - how does that happen?). But this one point that MSU could have a slight advantage could still remain with the Alabama 2ndary. Barron is out along with the leadership, experience, and good hands. Will Lowery will likely get the start at Safety. How he plays back there will definitely contribute in the outcome of MSU's scoring offense. We have to eliminate all of these busted coverages and hopefully the CBs will hold down the fort on the deep balls.

The kicking game favors MSU but don't count Alabama out on this one. We are young at all kicking positions but we have made few mistakes. A break here or there could help Bama break it open. Let's just hope we have Special Teams issues ironed out after last year's BCS Special Teams blunders. If we continue to screw the pooch with sky kicks again, we're in trouble. Also, let's be a little more wary of when to run a fake punt, aight?

So with a win, Alabama will have another 10-win season. I think Alabama will come out guns blazing, especially in the running game... the defense will come to play, but busted coverages will definitely keep Michigan State in the game. This MSU offense is still no slouch in moving the ball. They'll score, but in the end, Alabama's ball control will hopefully reign and come out on top. MSU is a quality opponent and we definitely better not take them lightly or the tables could turn. In this one though, I think G-Mac, Ingram and company are keeping the guys focused on the task at hand. There's no point in losing this game, so let's take care of business, boys. ROLL TIDE!

PREDICTION:      #15 BAMA 26 - #7 MICHIGAN STATE 20
ACTUAL SCORE:  #15 BAMA 49 - #7 MICHIGAN STATE 7     (BAMADOG 11-2)

Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: I think everyone thought it would be a more comptetitive game but MSU pretty much got beat early and Bama, for the 1st time all season, didn't let up and played a complete game from top to bottom. The Big 10 has been no match today for the SEC and Bama continues to get another 10-win season and extending its bowl win total to 32. Great way to go our for G-Mac - let's hope our Juniors don't declare for the NFL and we'll have a great chance at taking another title next season with the QB position being the biggest question mark in making that happen. ROLL TIDE!

#10 BAMA vs #2 AUBURN PREDICTION

Aight. This week gets a little tricky. #2 and undefeated Auburn comes to Bryant-Denny Stadium Friday as a 4-point underdog to 2-loss Alabama who lost to 2 teams that Auburn defeated. Go figure that one out. It must be the home crowd and the fact that Auburn hasn't faced a "good" team on the road all season. That's where the question marks come in. Throw in the "rivalry" game factor when you throw out the statbook and honestly, it's a toss-up.

Alabama comes into the game with a 20-game home winning streak. The only way we'll extend it to 21 is if we can shut down Cam Newton (assuming he plays) and the running game of Auburn. Bama has a respectable 185 ypg on the ground while Auburn has 308 ypg. That's a huge difference in controlling the clock and ball control, something Alabama normally does. Auburn also scores a lot of points (43ppg) and has this year's Heisman frontrunner at the healm. We have the last Heisman winner on our team and a lot of people have forgotten that fact. Ingram is still a beast, but quite honestly, Cam is just more dangerous than Ingram right now.

Bama's offense vs Auburn's defense: The Auburn defense is going to have a hayday on Greg McElroy if we continue doing what we have done all season in the passing game. We have continually NOT protected the QB or he has held on to the ball too long nearly all season. Thus the extremely high number of sacks this season against the Tide. I don't see much changing on Friday with Fairly and company looking for more. Sure, AU won't have a couple of backup DL in the 1st half but that shouldn't make much difference. I look for Auburn to get at least 5 sacks on the day which will put Alabama at a huge disadvantage in the down/distance game. That obviously doesn't favor Alabama either as we have struggled against decent teams this year. The difference in this one is that Alabama is playing at home where we haven't really been challenged since UT of last year.

I highly expect, with our makeshift OL, for Ingram and Richardson to get shut down in the running game just as last year. The only way these guys make plays in the Iron Bowl is if we get them going in the passing game - and lately, these poorly conceived dump-off passes haven't been producing much of anything. So look for McElroy to have a ton of passes in this game, either because that's all we'll be able to do due to the lack of rushing game, or we're playing from behind for most of the game as we did last year. Maybe we go no-huddle - that has been semi-successful. Remember, this is a quick-strike AU offense, so Bama's offense will probably have to be in that mode as well since we won't be able to just line up and smash it down their throats like we did to most teams last year. Throw in the fact that Anthony Steen is starting in place of Barrett Jones and you have one more weak link that will allow the AU DL to get to GMac. I don't want to see that, but I have a feeling this could be the "Brodie Croyle Sack Game" all over again. Our "hot" routes are going to have to be working, and GMac will have to get these passes completed for us to have any chance at winning, er, being successful. :)

Bama's defense vs Auburn's offense: No one has really stopped Cam Newton all year. Auburn sliced and diced LSU's top-rated rush defense for 440 yards. Alabama's run defense has been suspect a little this year giving up big chunks here and there. We already had our one-player-100-yard record broken this year by Ole Miss - expect to have it broken again with Cam Newton running the ball. He's like a running telephone pole. Even if you hit him, he's going to fall forward 3 more yards. That's why so many teams have had trouble stopping him. His speed is also deceptive - he reminds me a little of ex-Hog Matt Jones and those slow long strides he would make. The other thing we HAVE to shut down are the speed sweeps with the man-in-motion plays. It's all about misdirection with Auburn's offense. You never know who has the ball, and 3-4 guys are always running in different directions, so our defense HAS to be disciplined AND tackle when given the opportunity. If we have a guy in place to make a tackle, then by george, we have to make that tackle. Newton, Dyer, and McCalebb can take it the distance and have great speed to get there. Our 2ndary is still young and on top of that, they're not very fast especially at the safety position. We're in for some serious trouble if we bite on the runs that Newton pulls up to throw deep - they have done that to teams all year with great success... it's all about playing SOUND defense - something Saban I KNOW has been preaching ALL WEEK LONG. Whether our guys execute that plan is yet to be seen. If we can do that, we have a chance.

As for special teams, that's a draw. Both teams have decent kickers while Auburn has the better punter. Alabama has a better return game, so field position will be huge. If we can get Maze and company a few extra LEGAL blocks in the kicking game, maybe we could break one for 6, but I'm not counting on it. We're going to have to earn it.

The coaching advantage for this game you'd think would go to Alabama. But think again. Auburn clearly has teams on their heels not knowing if plays are running or passing. It's a well-disguised offense with a RB that can throw the ball basically. To be so big, he's very hard to bring down. Auburn will use all their weapons on offense and keep the defense guessing, even with Saban getting basically 2 weeks of prep. It's just one of those years when the right players play at the right time and the moons align, you know? Chizik and Malzahn have things clicking bigtime right now. Forget Auburn's 2ndary playing poorly - if we don't score, we're going to lose miserably. And if we're in forced passing situations, an Auburn 2ndary will know what's coming - no need for any play-action game for Alabama if we can't run the ball... and that gives Auburn the advantage.

Strange thing is, Kirk Herbstreit picked Auburn to win the SEC West at the beginning of the season. Against all odds, that happened. But NOW, Herbstreit thinks Alabama will win the Iron Bowl. Strange. So if we had beaten LSU, this game would be for the West Crown - then what would Kirk do? Would he be forced to pick Auburn all of a sudden?? ha ha Weird stuff.

Anyway, this is a tough game to call... Bama's favored somehow, and I'm guessing it has more to do with the home-field advantage. Auburn gets all the calls from the sidelines, so I doubt they'll be making any calls at the line anyway. The crowd can't play - they can only make noise. And with no play-calling at the line, it shouldn't be much of an issue unless Alabama starts bringing some seriously new blitz packages which I doubt will happen. In this one, Bama will get scored upon early and often. We'll be down at halftime and once again play from behind. The lack of cohesiveness on the OL will once again be the weak link in the Alabama offense getting going. McElroy will be on his back for a lot of the game if not hurried... and I expect some very frustrated Bama fans to be watching the game wondering why we can't tackle Cam Newton as he just runs through our arms like he's done every other team this season. People, he IS a Heisman frontrunner - not just another football player. Let's be for real here. Cam Newton IS Auburn football this year. If we can't stop him, Alabama will not be successful, er, win. Period. That's their M.O. So it's time we lay it all out on the line in this one. All or nothing. Does it happen? Not really. Bama's defense is still too young even at this point in the season to stop this well-oiled Auburn offensive machine.... and it sickens me to death to even say that. Prove me wrong Bama... It's time to put up or shut up. It's about pride. It's about 365 more days and that's the most important thing of all - Bragging Rights. ROLL TIDE!

PREDICTION:      #10 BAMA 23 - #2 AUBURN 31
ACTUAL SCORE:  #10 BAMA 27 - #2 AUBURN 28     (BAMADOG 10-2)

Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: 1st Half: Bama was unstoppable. 2 big plays that cost us were the touchback fumble by Ingram and then the sack given up by backup OG Anthony Steen and then not seeing the ball to recover it. Fortunately, Auburn didn't capitalize on Bama's mistakes, but Bama didn't help their own cause either by extending the score another 2 TDs which we really need to do in a game of this magnitude. 2nd Half: Bama shut down and got shut out basically. We had our chances to put it away early and turnovers killed us - literally. Now it's bowl time wherever that takes us...

#10 BAMA vs GEORGIA STATE PREDICTION

A game like this where the winner if 99% certain is hard to call. When does Saban call off the dogs and put in 100% backups? I'm guessing by the start of the 3rd quarter, the starters will be in the rest of the way... Bama's just too big and too physical for this type of team to beat us in our own backyard, period. So it's not a matter of who will win, but by how much. Right now, McCarron is the only backup QB that will see action since Sims is being redshirted this year. Star Jackson would get reps but instead, he's the starter for Georgia State - so I'm sure he'll get all the reps he can handle.

The only thing that might give GSU an advantage is that Star Jackson knows the Tide offense and the audibles. I'm sure he has already passed that information on to Bill Curry and the coaching staff. Problem is, I'm not sure it will matter. Speed kills, and Bama has plenty of it. Maze and Jones will likely have big days in the 1st half before taking a 2nd half breather. Lacy, Goode, and Fowler will get a ton of snaps in the 2nd half as well. Hopefully we can come out of the game injury-free and get ready for the Iron Bowl starting on Friday.

So what will the score be? I'm guessing even with the backups that Bama puts up another 3 TDs. We'll be going for it on 4th down at that point should that happen, so FGs shouldn't be an issue. Add that to the 35 points we get in the 1st half and you're talking somewhere in the neighborhood of 59 points. I'll go with that. I'm guessing that GSU won't score but maybe Bama has one blunder that gives them a freebie... naah. The defense will do everything it can to get the shutout this week.

PREDICTION:      #10 BAMA 56 - GEORGIA STATE 0
ACTUAL SCORE:  #10 BAMA 63 - GEORGIA STATE 7     (BAMADOG 9-2)

Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: As expected, Alabama dominated in every phase of the game. With the exception of a returned kickoff for TD (1st of the year) and a missed chip-shot FG, we did well. Practically every player down to the scout team played so the 2nd half was just burn-the-clock time. Next opponent won't be anything like Georgia State, so we better be ready. This was in essence a bye week for the Tide.

#11 BAMA vs #17 MISSISSIPPI STATE PREDICTION

Ok, what am I supposed to do - pick Mississippi State to beat Alabama AT HOME? Mississippi State hasn't beaten Alabama since Shula got Croomed. It's hard to see anything but a win on Saturday, but hey - this is the big bad SEC West and anything can happen.

State comes in with an identical record as the Tide since we decided to lose last weekend to LSU. They are for real though not flashy in doing so. They have a power running game with not-so-much an air raid. So Alabama will have to find a way to make Mississippi State throw the ball and get back to our winning ways.

The SEC West is still up for grabs if Auburn loses against Georgia, so we HAVE to still play to the standard Saban wants. We need to stop busting coverages and get back to playing Alabama football, period. Doing that will mean Ingram will have to have a big game with Richardson possibly out. Julio Jones will also have to step up big for us. And most of all, the defensive line needs to show up and camp out in the MSU backfield - something we really haven't done all year long.

I want to call a blowout, but Bama has not proven lately that the offense can really step up to the plate AGAINST GOOD TEAMS. State is a good team. I expect a slow start and an MSU rally in the game, but ultimately, how can you really pick the Bulldogs to win the game? I just have a hard time doing that right now though yeah, it COULD happen. Hopefully, the players haven't given up at this point. There is still a lot to play for. You don't win a national title every year, right? So let's keep on keepin' on, Bama. Time to whip some Bulldog BUTT! ROLL TIDE!

PREDICTION:      #11 BAMA 27 - #17 MISSISSIPPI STATE 13
ACTUAL SCORE:  #11 BAMA 30 - #17 MISSISSIPPI STATE 10     (BAMADOG 8-2)

Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: Rather close prediction this week. We actually took care of business like we're supposed to. Julio and Ingram had good games, and it was good to see the backups get in the game in the 4th quarter. The defense is still leaking - too many holes still. It's not going to be pretty against Auburn if we keep this kind of defense going. Overall, still, not a bad outing against a quality ranked opponent in the SEC West.

#5 BAMA vs #7 L.S.U. PREDICTION

Bama finally has a bye week (so does LSU) and heads down to Baton Rouge, LA. Forget LSU's play the last few games... they find ways to win even if UT helps them. For this game, the winner is still alive in the SEC West while the loser is definitely out. A Bama win means we still have to beat MSU and Auburn to win the West while LSU would need Auburn to lose against Georgia and Alabama. Basically, we control our own destiny while LSU needs help.

In this one, LSU's defense will come to play. Patrick Peterson will be on Julio Jones like white on rice. That will free up some other guys to play in coverage or play the run. I have a strong suspicion that Alabama is going to have to win the game with FG kicking and passing the ball to Maze, Hanks, and Williams. Julio will have some catches but something tells me this game is going to go down to the wire.

Forget that Auburn ran for 440 yards on LSU - that was a whack job offense with Cam Newton getting over 1/2 the yards. We don't have that QB running option, so we're going to line up and you just have to stop us. I think Richardson will also have to have a big day - I'm still not sure that Ingram is at 100%, regardless of what he might say. Bama just has to be able to shut down the weak LSU offense. Jarrett Lee is the better passer while Jordan Jefferson makes plays with his feet. If we can contain those guys, hopefully we'll be ok.

The other area where Bama really needs to focus is on kickoff and punt returns by Patrick Peterson. They guy is one of the best in the country. We HAVE to stop this cat or he's going to burn us. And if you give that LSU home crowd something to get rowdy about, it could be rough for the Tide.

Coachingwise, we're ok. We have, in my opinion, the best coach in college football. We had a bye to get a few things worked out after we manhandled UT in the 2nd half of the last game while LSU has struggled all season. Maybe they work out a few kinks too, but I have to believe that given the QB situation at Alabama vs what they have at LSU, we're probably 1-3 points better in the end.

The road team usually has a lot of success in this series, and this year, I expect to see more of the same. It could be a back-and-forth kind of game which will really test the Tide, but in the end, hopefully the Tide can make a play that will put them ahead for good. This team NEEDS this win badly, especially given the fact that TCU and Utah play each other this weekend. We have needed everyone in front of us to lose that needed to lose - and it has happened. That crap CAN'T happen for naught. It had to happen for a reason - and it wasn't so someone else could play for an SEC and National Championship. It was for Alabama (hopefully).

Alabama goes into Baton Rouge and gives the Mad Hatter his 2nd loss of the season. It might not pretty, but there aren't a lot of pretty wins in the SEC. Hang on to your hat and save your voice for the 4th quarter - this one could be one giant stressball. Let's go Tide!!

PREDICTION:      #5 BAMA 16 - #7 L.S.U. 13
ACTUAL SCORE:  #5 BAMA 21 - #7 L.S.U. 24     (BAMADOG 7-2)

Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: I told you it would be a close game. It was a game Bama was ultra-conservative at times when they just needed to open it up. The real killer was the lack of blocking on the OL and that bust in coverage by Bama's 2ndary. No SEC Championship game for Bama... now it's just fight for a Cotton Bowl berth perhaps....what a mess. All I can do is shake my head.... Can we possibly beat Mississippi State next weekend?

#7 BAMA vs TENNESSEE PREDICTION

Bama got back on its winning ways last week vs Ole Miss, and now it's time to go to Knoxville to take on the Vols of Tennessee. Tennessee comes into the game this year with one of the most inexperienced UT teams in its storied history. Nearly every position has had to be replaced by a new starter which has helped in aiding UT it's lackluster 2-4 overall record and winless record in the SEC. Throw in the fact that UT has a new coach in Dooley, and you see why the Vols are off to such a bad start. New coaches in the SEC just do NOT do well normally in this conference. Even Nick Saban went 6-6 in the regular season in his 1st season and then won his bowl game against Colorado. Of course, Saban's players for that year did have quite a bit more experience than this UT team and we didn't lose a game by more than 7 points that year. Throw in some preseason thug activity and you see why the Vols are where they are.

As for this game, Bama really hopes to get back on track offensively after 3 subpar weeks. Teams are packing the box with 7-8 guys now, and we're unable to make plays like we were last season. After losing Mike Johnson and Colin Peek, you'd think we'd still be ok, but for some reason we have taken a step backward. The success at the beginning of the season had a lot to do with the lack of competition. Those teams, including Penn State, just aren't SEC calibur. Now, Jones has a banged-up hand, Ingram is likely still feeling the effects of that scoped knee earlier in the season, Fluker has a groin pull, and GMac has been hit and gotten rattled pretty good as well. Throw in on defense Dareus's leg/ankle and young 2ndary, and you see that our weaknesses are really starting to show. The newness of special teams has actually not hurt the Tide too much this year. FG kicking has been relatively solid, punt returns have been good, especially last week with Maze back there, and kickoffs are good with Richardson. The main part we need to improve on ST's is punting - it's probably been the most inconsistent if you have to pick out something.

So in this one, I feel Alabama is going to come out of the gates quick - they'll have to if they want to keep the crowd quiet and out of the game. We need to get up by 3 TDs by halftime to really keep the Vol fans down and eventually out of the stadium early. Having seen what the weaker teams have done to Tennessee, you have to believe that this game could get ugly quick. But as with any Tennessee game (check out 2009), you can throw out the stats. The team that comes ready to play will win this game. And that team will be Alabama. UT will put up a fight, but Bama just HAS to get out of this funk and soon - what better time to do that than before the bye week. We need this - and it's time to get it done. I look for more points from Bama and another solid week for the defense as we will also get some action against another newbie QB. So far, newbie QB's haven't fared well against the Tide this year... Bama could see multiple int's on defense if UT has to play catch up.... I definitely look for a game in which Bama isn't threatened going into the 4th quarter, but it could be close early on. Look for Bama to put it away in the 2nd half and extend the record to 7-1 on the year with LSU looming.

PREDICTION:      #7 BAMA 30 - TENNESSEE 10
ACTUAL SCORE:  #7 BAMA 41 - TENNESSEE 10     (BAMADOG 7-1)

Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: Bama came out a bit flat in the 1st half but lit it up in the 2nd half against a tired and inexperienced UT defense. Bama's streak of 100-yd rushers on defense was stopped however due to an early 59-yard run by Poole. I'll trade that stat for a win though any day. It was good to see Bama play with authority in the 2nd half - and it definitely gave those guys a boost going into the bye week with LSU looming afterwards. Last, what a monster day by Julio Jones and Trent Richardson. It's about time the passing game came alive. But let's not get the big head just yet - LSU and Auburn have better defenses overall than what we faced tonight. But still, we actually executed in the 2nd half and turned away more red zone attempts by the opposition. ROLL TIDE!

#8 BAMA vs OLE MISS PREDICTION

Just when you thought picking games in college football, last week happens. Now we REALLY have to think about what's going to happen. Some of these Alabama players have never experienced a loss - how do they react in the upcoming weeks? This season is FAR from over, but what are the players thinking? Hopefully, Saban has crammed it in their heads that THIS is the only game that matters right now. Ole Miss CAN beat you if you don't play winning football. Regardless of Ole Miss's record, they are capable of beating anyone in the conference. Take no one lightly. Period. If we do, we can count the SEC West out of contention for this year.

As for this game, I do feel that Houston Nutt was feeling very nervous after Alabama lost last week. Sure, the game exposed Alabama on defense (and offense), but on the flip side, do you REALLY want to be the next team Alabama plays after losing a game like that and falling to #8 in the country. I honestly expect that our players have a SERIOUS intense focus this week in practice. I mean, if it were me, I would be FIGHTIN' MAD right now and ready to punch somebody in the mouth - seriously. As a player, I'd be ready to make a statement and a big one at that. Of course, feelings at practice and playing on the field Saturday are 2 different things - but hopefully that intensity at practice will transfer over to Bryant-Denny on Saturday.

Ole Miss has lost 2 games this year to Vandy and Jax State. They have come back to win their last 3 however in convincing fashion. They have also had a bye week to watch Bama and prepare accordingly. Oh, and on a side note, UT has a bye this week as they prepare for Alabama next week. Great, huh? Anyway, Ole Miss has a coach that knows how to win. The problem is that he's at the wrong school to do it. He lost Dexter McCluster this year but picked up a better QB in Masoli, transfer from Oregon. He's far better than last year's QB Snead in my opinion. The though thing about Masoli is that he's finally picking up the nuances of Nutt's offense and is now making plays both with his quick feet and by passing the football. That's dangerous news for Alabama. When we face mobile QBs, we usually come out on the short end of the stick. The one exception might be Tebow in 2009. But more times than not, Bama struggles with these types of QBs.

I think Bama comes out feisty. The crowd is deafening for homecoming... Ole Miss will get confused and the defense will make some plays. QBs sacks in this game will come at a premium as Masoli is slippery as an eel. I expect us to get our average of maybe 1 sack in this game. Our pass rush has just been pitiful lately. That means more pressure on Alabama's 2ndary - and given this run/pass QB, it's going to be tough to get these guys off the field on 3rd downs unless we get them in 3rd & 10s or longer. I'm just not convinced that we have enough speed to contain Masoli. Lately, the defense has had a lot of trouble getting off the field with both of our last 2 games' 3rd quarters being nearly consumed by the opposition. We're just not getting enough opportunities in the 3rd quarter to put teams away - instead, the other team is owning the clock and establishing their offense. If that doesn't change, we'll see more of the same from what we saw in Columbia last weekend.

In the end, I think Ingram and Richardson are going to play possessed. The possible lack of Julio Jones at 100% (if at all) will definitely hurt as we don't have a dominant WR like him on the roster. Other guys have stepped up in past games, but no one else has ever really BEEN THE MAN like Julio when it mattered. Now's the time to see what life after Julio might be like. Hopefully they will respond well. As for the defense, one just has to hope that Saban has fixed some of the problems that has been plaguing the Tide these last 2-3 weeks. We're not getting sacks, we're not affecting the QB like we need to, and we're just not getting off the field after 3rd down. It's time to dominate the time of possession - something we have not really done well this year.

I expect a close game, and I'm still very puzzled how we're favored to win by 21 points. Seriously? Are we really so good that we can stomp Ole Miss into the ground after we gave them a clinic on how they can beat us on national TV? Ole Miss is going to stack the box. Count on it - 8, 9 guys will be up at the line. The question is, can McElroy get his brain going in a way to get rid of the ball and not take unneeded sacks. From a TV perspective, it's hard to tell sometimes if anyone is open, but other times, it's easy to see the open guy. But from his perspective it's all different. He doesn't have the PS3 view. Regardless, he will definitely have to know when to get rid of the ball and when to pull it down and run (and slide). Too many 3rd and longs on this day will spell near certain doom for the Tide.

The game is close at halftime with Julio not playing at 100% (or not playing at all)... and Ole Miss is going to feel they can win the game if they just hang on. I honestly think they'll take a lead at some point in the game... that's the Bama way lately. But will we have enough juice to come back and win the game at home where Ole Miss has not won since 1998? I think we're good on this day, but let's not get cocky should we win. We still have a long way to go if we expect to clean house the rest of the way. Let's take care of business, Bama. I'm here in T-Town, and I don't wanna make that 8-hr trip back home to Dallas after a loss. That ain't fun. It's super close, but Bama holds on late. Seriously??? A 21-point favorite??? We may not even score 21 points if we keep playing lazy on offense.... maybe I'm just way off. Maybe we just come out and beat the crap out of the Rebels. Let's hope so. Either way, I think Bama responds in a positive way. ROLL TIDE!

PREDICTION:      BAMA 26 - OLE MISS 17
ACTUAL SCORE:  BAMA 23 - OLE MISS 10     (BAMADOG 6-1)

Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: Initial impressions while at the game were - where has the running game gone off to???? For an offense that returned so many offensive starters, for the last 3 games, we look pretty inept out there. If we want to beat Auburn and LSU (or UT and MSU for that matter), we better the the offense back on track. Good defensive game for Bama in addition to some really good FG kicking by Cade Foster. This was a win we needed pretty bad to keep us alive in the BCS race and we got it.

#1 BAMA vs #19 SOUTH CAROLINA PREDICTION

Alabama heads to Columbia, SC, this weekend to take on the #19 ranked Gamecocks in a matchup that could also help decide the SEC East champion. If SC pulls the upset, they would be in great shape for their head-to-head matchup with the Gators later in the season. But to do that, they would have to beat a team that has won 19 games in a row, 9 SEC road games in a row, a National Champion, and hasn't lost an SEC game since Auburn of 2007. Throw in the All-Americans on this team and the fact that they are playing with a purpose, and it's hard to see the Tide losing this game.

Keep in mind though, that this game only has Alabama as a 7-point favorite. Vegas knows something because it seems that from this point out, Alabama would be a near-double-digit favorite in the rest of their games. I guess the opponent's bye week could be affecting that along with the day-to-day status of Julio Jones (knee).

In playing South Carolina, Alabama will be facing itself. SC runs a very similar offense as Alabama now that they have a decent RB by the name of Lattimore. He's only a freshman but he has shown some promise early on in the season. If they can rekindle that spark they started out the season with, they will give Alabama trouble. If that same SC team that played Auburn 2 weeks ago shows up, it will be a long day for the Gamecocks. I expect a heavy dose of Richardson and Ingram but also a South Carolina defense that will aim to try and stop the run, something they were not successful in doing last year as Ingram ran for nearly 250 yards in the game. With Richardson even better than last year and the added experience of everyone else on offense, I think the Tide keep rolling. SC will play us tough - probably tougher than Florida - but in the end, Bama's defense will try and stuff Lattimore and make Stephen Garcia beat us through the air. If SC becomes one-dimensional, it's over. If Spurrier plays musical QBs, it's over. Garcia's backup is NOT the answer if they expect to win the game. We have already seen first-hand what Alabama does to green QBs. It happened when SC played Auburn as well - just not a good idea. So it's likely Spurrier will stick with Garcia regardless of the score.

This game is on the road, the crowd will be loud, and South Carolina will have had an extra week of practice. I highly expect this game to be close. The defense going up against Ingram and Richardson in practice will FULLY prepare themselves for going against this similar SC offense. The question is, can South Carolina stop Alabama? That will depend on Jones knee injury and whether or not the WR backups will step up in his place if he should not play. Last season, our guys stepped it up and took charge. Back in 2005, when Prothro got hurt, the team crumbled. With the athletes Bama has, we SHOULD be able to handle it if Julio can't play at 100%. At punt returner, we'll either see Maze or Richardson. Both have skills but haven't had many game reps at the position. With all things laid out and Julio still on the mend, I see Bama winning a close one at halftime, then we pull away in the 2nd half to win by double-digits. The key to the game is stop Lattimore. If we do that, and keep him under 100 yards on the day, then we're gold. Tide rolls in this one and distances itself even futher amongst the SEC East wanna-be's. This year, it's all about the SEC West for sure.

PREDICTION:      BAMA 27 - SOUTH CAROLINA 12
ACTUAL SCORE:  BAMA 21 - SOUTH CAROLINA 35     (BAMADOG 5-1)

Bamadog Post-Game Quick Note: 1st half we dug ourselves a hole. No running game, no real passing game, and we struggled to move the ball in the red zone when we got there. The turnover was crucial as well. Bad snap/hold on the PAT caused a missed PAT by Shelly. 3rd quarter, SC spot us 2 points and the ball and we only came up with a FG yet again... then to end the quarter, GMac takes a sack right next to the sideline - throw it away, man! 7 sacks and counting is unacceptable... clearly the wheels fell off in this game and hopefully we can rebound next week for homecoming. NEVER would I have thought SC would have scored 35 points after giving up 45 points the entire season thus far.... wow.

#1 BAMA vs #7 FLORIDA PREDICTION

It's Alabama/Florida week and all eyes are on Tuscaloosa this weekend. Sorry Red River Rivalry - this one is tops this weekend. The last 2 National Champions and SEC Division winners of 2009 face off at 7pm Saturday night and the winner of this one has a great shot at getting to Atlanta in 2010. Alabama has played a decent schedule so far while Florida has struggled early in 3 of 4 games yet still managed to win comfortably in the end. Miami(Ohio), S.Florida, Tennessee (this year), and Kentucky isn't that much to write home about. All of those teams won't break the top 50 teams in the land right now. Alabama, on the other hand, has played a "ranked" Penn State team (though I wouldn't put much into that one), and a very good offensive-minded Arkansas team and won on the road. For the 2 cupcake teams Alabama has played, we put them away early and got the backups in early on.

So now Florida comes to T-Town to play a "real" team on the schedule. It will be interesting to see how they stack up. Alabama did that last week after not knowing everything our team was made of. I'd say almost every edge goes to Bama but the upset could still happen if we don't come prepared to play against Florida's speedy offense. At least Florida gave Alabama some good highlights on Trey Burton in last week's win vs Kentucky. You'd think that they would have pulled out that part of the playbook in week 5, not week 4. On top of that, why keep Burton in the game to keep scoring and scoring and scoring? It just gives Alabama even more film and incentive to stop the guy. It didn't make too much sense to me, but hey, that's their decision.

On defense, Alabama is going to face another newbie at QB - John Brantley. He's the real deal, but the problem is that he has underperformed. Perhaps it's the new WRs or perhaps, it's just the new way of thinking in Gainsville now that Lord Tebow is gone. In any case, things haven't really clicked all that much with the new signal caller. He has only thrown for over 200 yards in 1 game (Kentucky last week), and in all games besides Kentucky, the team started out horribly, fumbling snaps, getting stopped on multiple 3-and-outs. They shot themselves in the foot more than most UF teams as of late - but then again, no more Tebow, right? So what is Florida to do against an Alabama defense that already has good experience in stopped the run, and one that also grew up in 1/2 of football this past weekend? Yards will be hard-coming for the UF offense. Burton can get back there or Brantley. It won't matter. It will be tough if we just play sound defense and stick with our assignments. We did it last year in the SEC Championship, and we know what they're capable of now. Not being able to stop THIS offense after we just stopped a Tebow-infested offense last year just wouldn't make sense. The main difference is the lack of starters for Bama. But I think we can hang over their inexperienced offensive playmakers. Demps likely won't be at 100%, and Burton can't throw to himself.

On offense, Alabama will keep it balanced as usual. As talented as Florida is, I just can't see them stopping the 2-headed monster in Alabama's backfield. No one has so far, and I doubt they will. As soon as one gets a breather, the other one goes in fresh and ready to drive over (and through) people. Ingram and Richardson just don't back down. Multiple times during the season and especially against Arkansas, those guys just punished the defenders. Our RBs are handing out the punishments instead of the other way around. It's insane. Throw in a generally smart QB in McElroy and I believe that when Florida does cram the box with 8-9 guys, we're going to burn them deep for big gains. It's a 2-edged sword that teams have to deal with. Alabama did it last year as well - when UF started blitzing from one side, Bama counter-acted with a weakside screen to get a huge gain down the sidelines. I expect to see more of the same in this one should Florida bring the heat. Anything not clicking by halftime, I expect to see us change it up to get Florida on their heels.

Special teams for Alabama have yet to really be tested. The one pressured kick (at Arkansas) we did have to close the gap to 17-20 was successful. If this game is close, our guys are going to have to be ready. I wouldn't be surprised to see a long FG attempt by Bama in this one as the defenses are going to PLAY in this one. If Trent can continue getting huge kickoff returns for us, that will put us in even better position to put points on the board. What a huge weapon to have on kickoffs - at least when the other team kicks off. If we shut them out, I guess we'll get one in the whole game, right? But I doubt that's going to happen.

So some main points to watch for in the game....